The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016

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1 The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Industry Forecast Report BRICdata John Carpenter House 7 Carmelite Street London EC4Y 0BS United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Reference Code: MN0044MR Published Date: July

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Executive Summary Market size Trends Challenges Regulations Indonesian mining production, which primarily comprises coal, tin, copper, gold, and ammonia mining, is expected to total XXX million tons at the end of 2012, an increase of X% over the previous year. During the review period ( ), Indonesian mining production recorded a CAGR of XX%, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of X% over the forecast period ( ) to reach a projected total of XXX million tons in This growth is expected to be primarily driven by an increase in exports, as the escalating prices of minerals encourage companies to increase production. In terms of production volume, coal is the leading mineral in the Indonesian mining industry; with the country s coal production expected to reach XXX million tons by the end of 2012, an increase of X% over the previous year. Indonesia is the world s largest exporter of thermal coal and exports the majority of its production, with Asian countries being the prime export destinations. The Indonesian government introduced a new policy in 2012 that bans mining companies operating in the country from exporting 14 different metal ores unless they construct a smelter. The policy is expected to stimulate the country s downstream production, but slow exports of raw materials. Indonesia has announced plans to reduce raw mineral shipments and increase taxes on metals, a move that is expected to affect exports of bauxite and nickel to China, and further accelerate ore prices on global markets. Indonesia is expected to lead global growth in thermal coal exports over the next decade, with Indonesian producers Adaro Energy and Bumi Resources projected to become two of the top three coal exporting firms worldwide by The introduction of the Mining Law in 2009 encouraged investment in the Indonesian mining industry, while industry growth has also been driven by continued demand for key products and robust commodity prices. Indonesia revised its foreign ownership regulations in March 2012, introducing new conditions that are expected to act as a major barrier to entry for potential new investors. Specifically, the new regulations state that foreign mining companies operating in the country would have to divest XX% of their IUP (Mining Business License) interests by the end of the 10 th year of production. This change was widely viewed as the Indonesian government adopting a protectionist economic policy in order to support local mining companies. As the Indonesian mining industry is primarily driven by exports, the government s decision to ban exports on 14 different metal ores unless a smelter is constructed is expected to have an adverse impact on the overall industry and gradually reduce exports of raw materials. Indonesia is gradually losing its previously strong reputation as a reliable destination for foreign investment due to foreign companies unfavorable experiences in the country. In perhaps the most notable case, Churchill, the UK-based mining company was forced to file for international arbitration after the Indonesian government stripped it of multibillion dollar coal assets in the Borneo jungle that it acquired with a local partner. The manner in which Churchill was treated has raised questions among foreign investors regarding the Indonesian government's keenness to provide and maintain a reliable legal environment for foreign investment. Mining activities in Indonesia are governed under the Law on Mineral and Coal Mining No.4/2009 (Mining Law). The law is dependent on a considerable number of implementing regulations that will give detail on how it will be administered. Some fundamental implementing regulations have already been issued and more regulations with respect to key areas of the law are forthcoming. Depending upon the location and nature of the resource, three categories of mining license are provided under the mining law: 1. Izin Usaha Pertambangan ( IUP or Mining Business License) 2. Izin Usaha Pertambangan Khusus ( IUPK or Special Mining Business License) 3. Izin Pertambangan Rakyat ( IPR or People s Mining License) The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary Mining Industry Outlook in Indonesia Mining Industry Key Trends, Drivers and Challenges Key Trends and Drivers Challenges Mining Machinery Market Size and Forecast Regulatory Framework Benchmarking with Key Global Markets Coal Tin Copper Gold Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Industry Structure and Dynamics of Coal, Metallic and Non-Metallic Mining Five Forces Analysis: Coal Five Forces Analysis: Metallic Minerals Five Forces Analysis: Non-Metallic Minerals Coal Coal Production Overview Reserves, Production and Consumption of Coal Reserves Production Consumption Imports and Exports Imports and exports Export destination Key Active Projects News and Deals Competitive Landscape Tin Tin Production Overview Reserves, Production and Consumption of Tin Reserves Production Consumption Imports and Exports Imports and exports Export destinations Key Active Projects News and Deals Competitive Landscape Copper The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 3

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS 10.1 Copper Production Overview Reserves, Production and Consumption of Copper Reserves Production Consumption Imports and Exports Imports and exports Key Active Projects News and Deals Competitive Landscape Gold Gold Production Overview Reserves, Production and Consumption of Gold Reserves Production Consumption Imports and Exports Imports and exports Key Active Projects News and Deals Competitive Landscape Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Overview Reserves, Production and Consumption of Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Reserves Production Consumption Imports and Exports Imports and exports Key Active Projects News and Deals Competitive Landscape Appendix About BRICdata Areas of expertise Methodology Definitions Disclaimer The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 4

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Indonesia Mining Production Volume (Million Tons), Figure 2: Indonesia Electricity Production (kwh Billion), Figure 3: Indonesia Mining Equipment Market Size (US$ Million), Figure 4: Global Hard Coal and Lignite Production by Country (% Share), Figure 5: Global Tin Production and Reserves by Country (% Share), Figure 6: Global Copper Production and Reserves by Country (% Share), Figure 7: Global Gold Production and Reserves by Country (% Share), Figure 8: Global Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production by Country (% Share), Figure 9: Indonesian Mining Industry Dynamics Coal Figure 10: Indonesian Mining Industry Dynamics Metallic Minerals Figure 11: Indonesian Mining Industry Dynamics Non-Metallic Minerals Figure 12: Indonesia Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), Figure 13: Indonesia Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), Figure 14: Indonesia Coal Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 15: Indonesia Coal Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 16: Indonesia Coal Consumption Volume (Million Tons), Figure 17: Indonesia Coal Consumption Volume (Million Tons), Figure 18: Indonesia Coal Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 19: Indonesia Coal Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 20: Indonesia Coal, Briquettes, Ovoids, Products Made from Coal Imports Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 21: Indonesia Coal Exports Volume (Million Tons), Figure 22: Indonesia Coal, Briquettes, Ovoids, Products Made from Coal Imports Value (IDR Billion), Figure 23: Indonesia Coal Exports Value (IDR Billion), Figure 24: Indonesian Coal Exports by Destination (%), Figure 25: Indonesia Coal Production Split by Company (%), Figure 26: Indonesia Tin Production Volume (Tons), Figure 27: Indonesia Tin Production Volume (Tons), Figure 28: Indonesia Tin Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 29: Indonesia Tin Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 30: Indonesia Tin Consumption Volume (Tons), Figure 31: Indonesia Tin Consumption Volume (Tons), Figure 32: Indonesia Tin Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 33: Indonesia Tin Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 34: Indonesia Tin Ores and Concentrates Imports Volume (Tons), Figure 35: Indonesia Tin Exports Volume (Tons), Figure 36: Indonesia Tin Ores and Concentrates Imports Value (IDR Billion), Figure 37: Indonesia Tin Exports Value (IDR Billion), Figure 38: Indonesian Tin Exports by Destination (%), Figure 39: Indonesia Tin Production Split by Company (%), Figure 40: Indonesia Copper Production Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 41: Indonesia Copper Production Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 42: Indonesia Copper Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 43: Indonesia Copper Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 44: Indonesia Copper Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 45: Indonesia Copper Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 46: Indonesia Copper Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 47: Indonesia Copper Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 48: Indonesia Copper Ores and Concentrates Imports Volume (Tons), Figure 49: Indonesia Copper Exports Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 50: Indonesia Copper Ores and Concentrates Imports Value (IDR Billion), Figure 51: Indonesia Copper Exports Value (IDR Billion), Figure 52: Indonesia Copper Production Split by Company (%), Figure 53: Indonesia Gold Production Volume (Tons), Figure 54: Indonesia Gold Production Volume (Tons), Figure 55: Indonesia Gold Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 56: Indonesia Gold Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 57: Indonesia Gold Consumption Volume (Tons), Figure 58: Indonesia Gold Consumption Volume (Tons), Figure 59: Indonesia Gold Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 60: Indonesia Gold Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 61: Indonesia Gold, Unwrought, Semi-manufactured, Powder Form Imports Volume (Tons), Figure 62: Indonesia Gold Exports Volume (Tons), Figure 63: Indonesia Gold, Unwrought, Semi-manufactured, Powder Form Imports Value (IDR Billion), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 5

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Figure 64: Indonesia Gold Exports Value (IDR Billion), Figure 65: Indonesia Gold Production Split by Company (%), Figure 66: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 67: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 68: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 69: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Value (IDR Billion), Figure 70: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 71: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 72: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 73: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Figure 74: Indonesia Anhydrous Ammonia Imports Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 75: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Exports Volume (Thousand Tons), Figure 76: Indonesia Ammonia Imports Value (IDR Billion), Figure 77: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Exports Value (IDR Billion), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 6

7 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Indonesia Mining Equipment Market Size (US$ Million), Table 2: Indonesia Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), Table 3: Indonesia Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), Table 4: Indonesia Coal Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 5: Indonesia Coal Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 6: Indonesia Coal Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 7: Indonesia Coal Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 8: Indonesia Coal Consumption Volume (Million Tons), Table 9: Indonesia Coal Consumption Volume (Million Tons), Table 10: Indonesia Coal Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 11: Indonesia Coal Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 12: Indonesia Coal Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 13: Indonesia Coal Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 14: Indonesia Coal, Briquettes, Ovoids, Products Made from Coal Imports Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 15: Indonesia Coal Exports Volume (Million Tons), Table 16: Indonesia Coal, Briquettes, Ovoids, Products Made from Coal Imports Value (US$ Million), Table 17: Indonesia Coal, Briquettes, Ovoids, Products Made from Coal Imports Value (IDR Billion), Table 18: Indonesia Coal Exports Value (US$ Billion), Table 19: Indonesia Coal Exports Value (IDR Billion), Table 21: Indonesia Tin Production Volume (Tons), Table 22: Indonesia Tin Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 23: Indonesia Tin Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 24: Indonesia Tin Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 25: Indonesia Tin Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 26: Indonesia Tin Consumption Volume (Tons), Table 27: Indonesia Tin Consumption Volume (Tons), Table 28: Indonesia Tin Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 29: Indonesia Tin Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 30: Indonesia Tin Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 31: Indonesia Tin Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 32: Indonesia Tin Ores and Concentrates Imports Volume (Tons), Table 33: Indonesia Tin Exports Volume (Tons), Table 34: Indonesia Tin Ores and Concentrates Imports Value (US$ Million), Table 35: Indonesia Tin Ores and Concentrates Imports Value (IDR Billion), Table 36: Indonesia Tin Exports Value (US$ Billion), Table 37: Indonesia Tin Exports Value (IDR Billion), Table 38: Indonesia Copper Production Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 39: Indonesia Copper Production Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 40: Indonesia Copper Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 41: Indonesia Copper Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 42: Indonesia Copper Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 43: Indonesia Copper Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 44: Indonesia Copper Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 45: Indonesia Copper Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 46: Indonesia Copper Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 47: Indonesia Copper Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 48: Indonesia Copper Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 49: Indonesia Copper Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 50: Indonesia Copper Ores and Concentrates Imports Volume (Tons), Table 51: Indonesia Copper Exports Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 52: Indonesia Copper Ores and Concentrates Imports Value (US$ Million), Table 53: Indonesia Copper Ores and Concentrates Imports Value (IDR Billion), Table 54: Indonesia Copper Exports Value (US$ Billion), Table 55: Indonesia Copper Exports Value (IDR Billion), Table 56: Indonesia Gold Production Volume (Tons), Table 57: Indonesia Gold Production Volume (Tons), Table 58: Indonesia Gold Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 59: Indonesia Gold Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 60: Indonesia Gold Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 61: Indonesia Gold Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 62: Indonesia Gold Consumption Volume (Tons), Table 63: Indonesia Gold Consumption Volume (Tons), Table 64: Indonesia Gold Consumption Value (US$ Billion), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 7

8 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table 65: Indonesia Gold Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 66: Indonesia Gold Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 67: Indonesia Gold Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 68: Indonesia Gold, Unwrought, Semi-manufactured, Powder Form Imports Volume (Tons), Table 69: Indonesia Gold Exports Volume (Tons), Table 70: Indonesia Gold, Unwrought, Semi-manufactured, Powder Form Imports Value (US$ Million), Table 71: Indonesia Gold, Unwrought, Semi-manufactured, Powder Form Imports Value (IDR Billion), Table 72: Indonesia Gold Exports Value (US$ Billion), Table 73: Indonesia Gold Exports Value (IDR Billion), Table 74: Indonesia Gold Projects Table 75: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 76: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 77: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 78: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 79: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Value (US$ Billion), Table 80: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Production Value (IDR Billion), Table 81: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 82: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 83: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 84: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 85: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Value (US$ Billion), Table 86: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Consumption Value (IDR Billion), Table 87: Indonesia Anhydrous Ammonia Imports Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 88: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Exports Volume (Thousand Tons), Table 89: Indonesia Anhydrous Ammonia Imports Value (US$ Million), Table 90: Indonesia Ammonia Imports Value (IDR Billion), Table 91: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Exports Value (US$ Billion), Table 92: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Exports Value (IDR Billion), Table 93: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Projects The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 8

9 MINING INDUSTRY OUTLOOK IN INDONESIA 2 Mining Industry Outlook in Indonesia Indonesia s mining production volume recorded healthy growth during the review period, growth that is expected to continue over the forecast period. Indonesia is one of the world s leading producers of coal, nickel, tin, copper and gold, with growth in the production of these minerals expected to drive overall growth in mining production over the forecast period. During the review period, industry growth was also driven by favorable regulations and Indonesia s rich natural resources, factors that encouraged many foreign companies to enter the Indonesian mining industry. However, recent regulations introduced by the Indonesian government regarding the mining industry are expected to have a significant adverse impact on the country s mining industry and slow overall growth. These regulations include: A ban on mining companies exporting 14 different metal ores unless a smelter is constructed A change to the Mining Law (2009) stating that foreign mining companies operating in the country would have to divest 51% of their IUP interests by the end of the 10 th year of production Furthermore, the Indonesian government plans to introduce a tax on all 65 different forms of minerals currently mined in the country, a move that is expected to reduce the industry s total exports and deter future foreign investment. Indonesian mining production, which primarily comprises coal, tin, copper, gold, and ammonia mining, is expected to total million tons at the end of 2012, an increase of X% over the previous year. During the review period, Indonesian mining production recorded a CAGR of XX%, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of X% over the forecast period to reach a projected total of XXX million tons in This growth is expected to be primarily driven by a rise in exports, as the escalating prices of minerals encourage companies to increase production. Coal accounts for the vast majority of Indonesian mining production, with a XX% share of total production volume in Coal also had the fastest-growing production value during the review period, a position it is expected to retain over the forecast period. Figure 1: Indonesia Mining Production Volume (Million Tons), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 9

10 MINING MACHINERY MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 3 Mining Machinery Market Size and Forecast The value of the Indonesian mining equipment market increased from US$XXX million in 2007 to US$XXX million in 2011, recording a CAGR of X% during the review period. The market is expected to value US$XXX million in 2012, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of X% over the forecast period to reach an anticipated value of US$X billion in Table 1: Indonesia Mining Equipment Market Size (US$ Million), CAGR Market Size XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX CAGR Market Size XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX Figure 2: Indonesia Mining Equipment Market Size (US$ Million), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 10

11 TIN 4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 4.1 Coal Indonesia accounted for X% of global hard coal production in 2010, while China dominated the market with a XX% share. In terms of lignite production, Indonesia was the second-largest producer in the world in 2010, only behind Germany. Indonesia accounted for XX% of global lignite production in Figure 3: Global Hard Coal and Lignite Production by Country (% Share), 2010 The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 11

12 TIN 5 Coal Production Production volume Indonesian coal production increased from XXX million tons in 2007 to 371 million tons in 2011, recording a CAGR of XX% during the review period. By the end of 2012, the country s total coal production is expected to have reached XXX million tons, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of X% over the forecast period to reach an anticipated value of XXX million tons in Notably, production is expected to increase in 2012 as numerous mining companies expand their operations and several new mines begin production. The relatively slow growth anticipated over the forecast period is primarily due to the Indonesian government s plans to impose a 25% tax on coal exports and introduce unfavorable regulations regarding foreign investment. Table 2: Indonesia Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), CAGR Production XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX Figure 4: Indonesia Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 12

13 TIN Table 3: Indonesia Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), CAGR Production XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX Figure 5: Indonesia Coal Production Volume (Million Tons), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 13

14 TIN 6 Tin Export destinations The majority of Indonesia s tin exports go to Singapore, with the country accounting for XX% of Indonesia s total tin exports in It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 3.4% share. Figure 6: Indonesian Tin Exports by Destination (%), 2010 The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 14

15 COPPER 7 Copper 7.1 Competitive Landscape Indonesian copper production is highly concentrated, with just two producers accounting for the country s entire copper production in In the same year, PT Freeport was the undisputed market leader, with a XX% share, while PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara accounted for a XX% share. Figure 7: Indonesia Copper Production Split by Company (%), 2010 The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 15

16 GOLD 8 Gold Consumption Consumption volume Indonesia s total gold consumption decreased from XX tons in 2007 to XX tons in 2011, registering a CAGR of X% during the review period. By the end of 2012, the country s total gold consumption is expected to have reached XX tons, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period to reach an anticipated value of XX tons in Table 4: Indonesia Gold Consumption Volume (Tons), CAGR Consumption XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX Figure 8: Indonesia Gold Consumption Volume (Tons), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 16

17 GOLD Table 5: Indonesia Gold Consumption Volume (Tons), CAGR Consumption XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX Figure 9: Indonesia Gold Consumption Volume (Tons), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 17

18 NITROGEN (FIXED) AMMONIA 9 Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia 9.1 Imports and Exports Imports and exports Imports volume Indonesia s imports of anhydrous ammonia increased from XXXX tons in 2007 to XXXX tons in 2011, registering a CAGR of XXX% during the review period. Table 6: Indonesia Anhydrous Ammonia Imports Volume (Thousand Tons), CAGR Imports XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX Figure 10: Indonesia Anhydrous Ammonia Imports Volume (Thousand Tons), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 18

19 NITROGEN (FIXED) AMMONIA Exports volume Indonesia s total ammonia exports decreased from X million tons in 2007 to XXXXXX tons in 2011, registering a CAGR of X% during the review period. Table 7: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Exports Volume (Thousand Tons), CAGR Exports XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX Figure 11: Indonesia Nitrogen (Fixed) Ammonia Exports Volume (Thousand Tons), The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 19

20 APPENDIX 10 Appendix 10.1 About BRICdata BRICdata publishes in-depth strategic intelligence reports that help its customers better understand opportunities in emerging markets and industry sectors. Its reports provide an independent, expert view supported by primary research and access to leading data and intelligence sources. BRICdata is a comprehensive source of insights and analysis, and publishes a broad range of reports across a number of different industry sectors, including consumer, retail, financial services, technology, telecoms and construction. BRICdata is headquartered in London with research, analysis and account management teams based across Europe, the US and Asia-Pacific. Its global research footprint is supported by a network of external associates, data partners and industry experts to give the clearest possible perspective on emerging markets Areas of expertise BRICdata operates a dedicated, multilingual team of in-house industry analysts with significant experience of global and country-level research. BRICdata also maintains data and research partnerships with other research companies, industry experts and trade associations, along with a network of independent industry consultants and former industry participants contributing research and reports to bring additional insight and expertise in more specialist areas. BRICdata s research offering spans the following industry areas: Construction BRICdata publishes reports covering the entire construction value chain: construction materials, equipment, construction services, architectural services and interior design. It also covers the main value sectors of construction activity: commercial, infrastructure, industrial, institutional and residential. This comprehensive view of the market enables BRICdata to detail key growth sectors and countries and identify the most attractive industry opportunities. Consumer goods Covering a broad range of areas across the consumer goods market, from interior products to fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), ingredients, and packaging, BRICdata offers a comprehensive insight into key consumer sectors across fast-growing markets, identifying key trends, future innovations and growth opportunities. Comprehensive data sets including unique primary survey-driven research creates accurate market forecasts and understanding of the factors driving consumption behavior. Financial services Providing detailed insights into insurance and banking markets, BRICdata s financial services reports identify key market opportunities, emerging technologies and channel strategies. The reports provide unique data combined with local examples of best practice and expert insights into the market. Retail BRICdata maintains a comprehensive database of forecasts of retail spending, along with a series of unique indicators enabling a forward view of retailers prospects in emerging markets. The reports identify emerging concepts in retail, including the nascent online and mobile retail sectors in the BRIC countries and other emerging markets. Technology BRICdata tracks key trends and innovations, emerging technologies and markets, and the key operators in both emerging markets and technologies. Covering a range of emerging and disruptive technologies including telecoms, social media, online and mobile retailing, and telemedicine, BRICdata examines strategies for success, the state of the competitive landscape and the inherent threats and opportunities in the emerging technological economy. The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 20

21 APPENDIX 10.2 Methodology All BRICdata reports are rigorously sourced and created according to a comprehensive, two-stage methodology. This includes internal audit and primary research. A) Internal audit Review of in-house databases to gather existing data: o Historic market databases and reports o Company database o projects database B) Primary research Review of the latest company strategy and asset management trends 1) Research A. Sources Collection of the latest market-specific data from a wide variety of industry sources: o Government statistics o Industry associations o Company filings o Broker reports o International organizations B. Expert opinion Collation of opinion taken from leading industry experts Analysis of third-party opinion and forecasts: o Broker reports o Industry associations o Official government sources C. Data consolidation and verification Consolidation of data and opinion to create historical datasets Creation of models to benchmark data across sectors and geographies 2) Research Analysis 3) Report Writing Market forecasts Feed of forecast data into market models: o Macroeconomic indicators o Industry-specific drivers Analysis of Market Databases to identify trends by sector: o Latest trends o Key drivers of the market Analysis of market data Discussion of company and industry trends and issues Integration of survey results Annual review of trends Standardization of market definitions using recognized industry classifications The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 21

22 APPENDIX 4) Quality Control A. Templates Detailed process manuals Standardized report templates and accompanying style guides Complex forecasting tool used to ensure forecast methodologies are consistently applied QC checklists B. QC process Peer review Senior-level QC Random spot checks on data integrity Benchmark checks across databases Market data cross-checked for consistency with accumulated data from company filings 10.3 Definitions For the purposes of this report, the following timeframes apply: Review period: Forecast period: The scope of this report is primarily confined to coal, two major metallic minerals, tin and copper; and two major nonmetallic minerals, gold and ammonia; which constitute a major part of the country's overall mining industry. All data is collected in local currency. To avoid distortions due to currency fluctuations, all conversions into US dollars of current, historical and forecast data are made with a yearly average exchange rate. All values in tables, with the exception of compound annual growth rates (CAGR), are displayed to one decimal place. Growth rates may, therefore, appear inconsistent with absolute values due to this rounding method Disclaimer All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, BRICdata. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that BRICdata delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. BRICdata can, therefore, accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect. The Indonesian Mining Industry Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016 Page 22