SEASONAL PRICES for TENNESSEE FEEDER CATTLE and COWS
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1 Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics SEASONAL PRICES for TENNESSEE FEEDER CATTLE and COWS Tammy L. McKinley Extension Specialist Andrew P. Griffith Assistant Professor economics.ag.utk.edu AE13 03 July 2012
2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Seasonal : Introduction... 3 Tennessee Steer, lbs Tennessee Steer, lbs Tennessee Steer, lbs Tennessee Steer, lbs Tennessee Steer, lbs Tennessee Heifer, lbs Tennessee Heifer, lbs Tennessee Heifer, lbs Tennessee Heifer, lbs Tennessee Heifer, lbs Tennessee Utility Cow...35 Choice Finished Cattle, Five Market Area Data Sources USDA/Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service Livestock Marketing Information Center Special Acknowledgment: Publication based on original work by Dr. Emmit L. Rawls Professor Emeritus, Agricultural Economics E Programs in agriculture and natural resource, 4-H youth development, family and consumer sciences, and resource development. University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture and county governments cooperating. UT Extension provide equal opportunities in programs and employment.
3 Seasonal : Introduction When planning to market cattle there are many factors a producer needs to take into account, one of which is the seasonal price pattern for the cattle to be marketed. Having an understanding of the historical monthly highs and lows can greatly impact returns especially in the short term. A producer can use the historical price patterns to decide whether to sell now or at a later date after the cattle have added some weight. Included in this publication are the historical average monthly prices for Medium and Large Frame No. 1 steers and heifers and cull cows from Tennessee Auction Markets and for Choice Finished cattle from the Five Market Area of Texas-Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and Iowa-Minnesota. The prices were obtained from the USDA and Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service. Similar graphs and tables are presented for each category of feeder and slaughter cattle. A description of these follows: On page 5 there is a graph of monthly prices for 300 to 400 pound steers for the past 10 years. Below it is a graph containing monthly prices for 2010, 2011 and the five year average for those same cattle. At the bottom of page 5 is a graph of the seasonal index of prices for the 300 to 400 pound steers. The index shows the percentage variation in prices during the year. If the annual average of prices is considered to be an index of 100, then in April the index, represented by the solid line, is about 104 or 4 percent above the annual average. Similarly, in November the index is about 95 percent indicating that prices are about 5 percent under the annual average. The graph also includes lines for plus and minus one standard deviation from the average. The variation in prices has been within those two lines two thirds of the time in the past 10 years. The wider apart the lines, the greater the variation in prices during that month. The table on page 6 shows more precisely how prices change from one month to the next. For example, comparing January to February prices over the past 10 years, prices increased 9 out of 10 years by an average of $5.37 per hundred. In the extreme right column, the overall price change was $4.82. From February to March, prices increased 6 out of 10 years or 60 percent of the time by an average of $6.23. Four years out of ten prices declined or 40 percent of the time by an average of $5.15. The overall price change was an increase of $1.68. The numbers in the right column, the overall average price change, can be added over a period of months as long as the weight of the animal stays within the specified weight, in this case 100 pounds. If the weight gain on feeder cattle is greater than 100 pounds, one needs to use the Buy/Sell Margins Calculator (available at or by calling ) to estimate the price change over time. The table on page 7 contains the raw data for the past 20 years as well as the five and 10 year averages, seasonal indexes and their respective standard deviations. 3
4 One example of how the material can be used is illustrated below. In this example we will use the data for pound heifers from pages Example: Deciding Whether to Sell 500 pound Heifers In November or January A producer is considering whether to market 500 pound heifers in November or feed them to gain 1.5 pounds per day for later sale in January weighing 590 pounds. Cost to feed is $60 per head and the interest (opportunity cost) is 8 percent for 60 days. Value of 500 pound heifer in $1.15 per pound = $575 Cost to hold in a gaining condition until January = $60 8 percent for 60 days = $8.35 Value in November plus cost to hold = $ Assume gain of 1.5 pounds per day and sale weight of 590 pounds Price needed to breakeven = $ divided by 590 pounds = $ From page 27 - The overall average price change from November to January is -$0.49 (November to December) plus $4.99 (December to January) or a total of $4.50 per hundredweight (cwt). Since the historical data indicates prices would increase from $1.15 per pound or $115 per cwt to $ per cwt and the producer could afford for prices to decline to $ per cwt and still breakeven, the rational decision would be to feed the calves and sell in January. 4
5 Tennessee Steer Lbs., Tennessee Steer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg ( ) Tennessee Steer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 5
6 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Steers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
7 Tennessee Steer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 99.9% 103.5% 104.5% 104.2% 102.7% 99.9% 99.6% 99.9% 98.7% 95.5% 95.4% 96.2% 100.0% 95.4% 104.5% STD 4.4% 4.3% 4.8% 5.0% 3.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.6% 5.6% 4.2% 3.4% 3.5% 4.3% 3.3% 5.6% Average S.I. 98.1% 102.9% 106.4% 106.7% 104.4% 100.0% 101.7% 100.0% 97.0% 93.0% 94.1% 95.8% 100.0% 93.0% 106.7% STD 3.5% 3.5% 5.9% 5.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 5.1% 6.3% 3.8% 3.1% 3.8% 4.0% 2.4% 6.3% 7
8 Tennessee Steer Lbs., Tennessee Steer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Steer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 8
9 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Steers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
10 Tennessee Steer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 99.3% 103.8% 105.8% 105.2% 104.3% 101.1% 100.3% 99.2% 97.6% 94.9% 93.9% 94.6% 100.0% 93.9% 105.8% STD 4.7% 4.5% 4.2% 4.5% 3.4% 3.0% 3.4% 4.8% 5.1% 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 4.0% 3.0% 5.1% Average S.I. 97.2% 103.8% 107.1% 107.6% 105.5% 101.4% 101.9% 99.8% 96.4% 93.0% 92.7% 93.7% 100.0% 92.7% 107.6% STD 3.6% 3.2% 4.3% 4.8% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 4.6% 5.1% 3.3% 2.6% 4.3% 3.6% 2.4% 5.1% 10
11 Tennessee Steer Lbs., Tennessee Steer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Steer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 11
12 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Steers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
13 Tennessee Steer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 96.9% 101.4% 104.7% 105.2% 105.1% 103.0% 102.0% 101.2% 98.3% 95.2% 93.2% 93.6% 100.0% 93.2% 105.2% STD 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.7% 3.4% 2.8% 3.4% 4.3% 4.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.5% 3.9% 2.8% 4.8% Average S.I. 95.0% 102.1% 106.8% 108.1% 106.4% 103.3% 103.4% 101.6% 96.9% 93.2% 91.6% 91.7% 100.0% 91.6% 108.1% STD 4.0% 3.2% 3.8% 4.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.1% 4.5% 4.9% 3.4% 2.5% 4.3% 3.5% 2.1% 4.9% 13
14 Tennessee Steer Lbs., Tennessee Steer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Steer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 14
15 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Steers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
16 Tennessee Steer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 95.9% 98.2% 100.8% 103.3% 104.4% 103.6% 104.1% 103.9% 101.1% 96.5% 93.9% 94.5% 100.0% 93.9% 104.4% STD 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.6% 4.3% 4.9% 3.9% 4.2% 5.4% 4.2% 3.2% 5.4% Average S.I. 94.1% 99.0% 102.6% 107.3% 106.5% 104.2% 105.6% 104.0% 99.2% 93.7% 92.0% 91.7% 100.0% 91.7% 107.3% STD 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% 4.4% 2.2% 2.4% 1.9% 4.7% 5.4% 3.0% 2.8% 4.6% 3.6% 1.9% 5.4% 16
17 Tennessee Steer Lbs., Tennessee Steer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Steer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 17
18 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Steers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
19 Tennessee Steer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 96.9% 97.3% 97.3% 100.5% 103.2% 102.5% 104.0% 104.4% 101.9% 98.7% 96.9% 96.5% 100.0% 96.5% 104.4% STD 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 5.9% 3.8% 3.3% 3.9% 4.4% 5.6% 4.3% 5.1% 5.8% 4.6% 3.3% 5.9% Average S.I. 94.5% 98.0% 98.9% 104.6% 105.9% 103.3% 105.4% 104.5% 99.2% 95.9% 95.6% 94.3% 100.0% 94.3% 105.9% STD 4.1% 2.6% 4.3% 5.0% 2.1% 2.7% 2.3% 5.2% 6.3% 3.3% 5.2% 5.9% 4.1% 2.1% 6.3% 19
20 Tennessee Heifer Lbs., Tennessee Heifer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, Lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Heifer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 20
21 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Heifers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
22 Tennessee Heifer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 98.1% 102.6% 104.5% 105.6% 105.4% 102.2% 101.3% 100.4% 98.1% 94.7% 93.2% 93.9% 100.0% 93.2% 105.6% STD 4.0% 4.3% 3.9% 4.0% 3.2% 3.8% 3.8% 4.4% 5.1% 4.4% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.2% 5.1% Average S.I. 96.5% 102.5% 105.7% 107.7% 107.2% 102.9% 103.9% 101.5% 96.9% 92.1% 90.9% 92.3% 100.0% 90.9% 107.7% STD 3.4% 3.5% 4.4% 4.3% 2.3% 3.5% 2.0% 4.2% 5.9% 4.4% 2.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.0% 5.9% 22
23 Tennessee Heifer Lbs., Tennessee Heifer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Heifer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 23
24 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Heifers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
25 Tennessee Heifer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 97.4% 102.2% 104.7% 106.0% 106.2% 103.2% 102.2% 100.9% 98.0% 94.1% 93.4% 91.9% 100.0% 91.9% 106.2% STD 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 4.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.8% 4.6% 5.3% 4.2% 6.0% 4.4% 4.3% 3.2% 6.0% Average S.I. 95.4% 102.3% 106.0% 108.4% 107.9% 103.7% 104.4% 101.9% 97.1% 91.5% 90.0% 91.4% 100.0% 90.0% 108.4% STD 3.9% 3.8% 4.4% 4.6% 2.6% 3.0% 2.2% 4.5% 6.1% 3.7% 2.7% 4.6% 3.9% 2.2% 6.1% # 25
26 Tennessee Heifer Lbs., Tennessee Heifer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Heifer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 26
27 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Heifers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
28 Tennessee Heifer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 96.0% 99.7% 102.5% 104.6% 106.1% 104.3% 104.1% 103.3% 99.5% 94.8% 93.1% 91.9% 100.0% 91.9% 106.1% STD 4.2% 3.7% 4.1% 4.5% 3.5% 3.3% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% 4.2% 5.7% 4.5% 4.3% 3.3% 5.7% Average S.I. 94.0% 100.2% 103.9% 107.1% 108.2% 105.2% 106.3% 104.2% 98.5% 92.0% 90.0% 90.3% 100.0% 90.0% 108.2% STD 4.3% 3.4% 4.7% 4.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4% 4.9% 6.2% 3.6% 2.8% 4.2% 3.8% 2.2% 6.2% 28
29 Tennessee Heifer Lbs., Tennessee Heifer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Heifer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 29
30 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Heifers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
31 Tennessee Heifer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 96.1% 98.1% 99.2% 102.4% 104.9% 103.7% 104.9% 104.8% 101.5% 96.7% 94.7% 92.9% 100.0% 92.9% 104.9% STD 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 5.0% 3.9% 3.6% 4.5% 4.6% 5.4% 4.6% 6.0% 5.0% 4.5% 3.6% 6.0% Average S.I. 94.2% 98.2% 100.4% 105.2% 107.7% 105.1% 107.5% 105.9% 100.0% 93.4% 91.3% 90.9% 100.0% 90.9% 107.7% STD 3.4% 3.1% 4.2% 5.1% 2.5% 2.5% 1.5% 4.9% 6.7% 3.6% 3.0% 4.2% 3.7% 1.5% 6.7% 31
32 Tennessee Heifer Lbs., Tennessee Heifer 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average, lbs Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Heifer Seasonal Price Index Medium No. 1, lbs., 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 32
33 Month to Month Price Changes lbs. Heifers - Medium Frame No. 1 Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
34 Tennessee Heifer lbs. Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 96.5% 97.8% 97.8% 100.6% 102.4% 102.3% 104.4% 104.3% 102.0% 98.6% 97.3% 96.0% 100.0% 96.0% 104.4% STD 4.2% 3.3% 3.4% 5.7% 4.4% 3.7% 5.2% 4.5% 5.1% 3.7% 6.3% 5.8% 4.6% 3.3% 6.3% Average S.I. 93.9% 97.3% 98.4% 104.0% 105.7% 103.3% 107.4% 105.2% 99.8% 96.3% 94.7% 93.9% 100.0% 93.9% 107.4% STD 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 5.3% 1.9% 3.1% 2.4% 4.4% 5.5% 3.3% 5.0% 6.2% 3.7% 1.8% 6.2% 34
35 Tennessee Utility Cow Tennessee Utility Cow 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average Five Year Avg. ( ) Tennessee Utility Cow Seasonal Price Index 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% (+) STD Avg (-) STD 35
36 Month to Month Price Changes Utility Cows Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan
37 Tennessee Utility Cow Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 95.3% 101.3% 101.5% 106.5% 109.7% 107.5% 103.0% 102.3% 96.9% 93.6% 90.6% 91.8% 100.0% 90.6% 109.7% STD 2.2% 4.4% 5.7% 4.5% 3.6% 5.1% 6.7% 4.1% 5.1% 4.3% 5.7% 5.5% 4.7% 2.2% 6.7% Average S.I. 95.4% 101.5% 101.0% 107.8% 111.7% 107.7% 106.2% 103.8% 96.7% 92.0% 87.4% 88.8% 100.0% 87.4% 111.7% STD 2.2% 3.7% 4.5% 5.1% 3.0% 5.1% 2.2% 4.8% 6.4% 4.0% 2.0% 2.2% 3.8% 2.0% 6.4% 37
38 Choice Finished Cattle Five Market Area, Choice Finished Cattle 2010, 2011, & Five Year Average Five Year Avg. ( ) Choice Finished Cattle Seasonal Price Index Five Market Area, 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% (+) STD Avg (-) STD Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center 38
39 Month to Month Price Changes Choice Finished Cattle - Five Market Area Period Increase Decrease Overall Average Price Change Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center 39
40 Choice Finished Cattle Five Market Area (Texas-Oklahoma; Kansas; Nebraska; Colorado; Iowa-Minnesota) Year Avg Low High Average S.I. 99.8% 100.4% 102.2% 102.4% 100.4% 97.4% 96.5% 97.8% 100.1% 100.8% 101.9% 100.3% 100.0% 96.5% 102.4% STD 5.2% 5.2% 4.5% 4.8% 3.9% 3.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 5.9% 5.9% 4.5% 4.7% 3.6% 5.9% Average S.I. 97.4% 98.6% 101.8% 104.3% 102.1% 97.9% 99.2% 100.3% 101.0% 99.5% 100.1% 97.9% 100.0% 97.4% 104.3% STD 2.2% 2.5% 4.9% 4.9% 2.6% 2.6% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 1.7% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 1.7% 4.9% Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center 40
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