Energy and Climate Policy in Israel

Transcription

1 Energy and Climate Policy in Israel Avi Gottlieb Department of Sociology and Porter School of Environmental Studies Tel Aviv University 16 th REFORM Group Meeting September 2, 2011 Schloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg

2 Topics (1) Current trends in GHG emissions (2) Main drivers of increase in emissions (3) Aspects of vulnerability to climate change (4) Potential for abatement of GHG emissions (5) Government strategies and policies to abate emissions (6) Analysis of policies and their effectiveness

3 1. Depiction of Current State of Affairs

4 Figure 1.1 Trends in Total CO2 Emissions Million Tons Total CO2 Emissions Source: CBS and Jean Koch et al illio n

5 Figure 1.2 Trends in per Capita and per GDP CO2 Emissions Tons GHG per Capita GHG per GDP Source: CBS and Jean Koch et al

6 Figure 1.3 CO2 Emission by Fuel Type CO2 (1,000 Tons) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Other Kerosene Gasoline LPG Petroleum Coke Gas/Diesel Oil Natural Gas Residual Fuel Oil Coal 10, Year Source: CBS and Jean Koch et al CO

7 2. Main Driving Forces

8 Figure 2.1 Population Growth, Population (1000) Year Source: CBS

9 Figure 2.2 Yearly Economic Growth Rates, GDP, percent change 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Year Source: CBS; since calculation change

10 3. Prospective Impacts

11 Rainfall (mm) N Figure 3.1 Precipitation Map: Average Annual Rainfall ( ) E Source: Israel Meteorological Service

12 Figure 3.2 Annual Rainfall Volume (Billion Cubic Meters, Average 5.99 BCM) B 8 C 7 M Year Source: Israel Meteorological Service

13 Figure 3.3 Projected Changes in Maximum Temperature Distributions* Percent observed control corrected B2 corrected A2 corrected TMAX ( o C) * Mt. Cana'an, including A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios. Source: Alpert et al. 2007

14 Figure 3.4 Average Daily Heat Stress, July-August 2001 Average 2005 Unusual 2003 Extreme 2008 Harsh Beginning of hot spell Activation of AC July August Day of Month Source: IEC

15 Figure 3.5 Projected Changes in Coastal Profile as a Result of Expected Sea Level Rise (Tel Aviv to Haifa Section) Tel Aviv Haifa Range of Sea Level Rise Original Coastal Profile New Coastal Profile after Sea Level Rise Sedimentation Meeting Point Sedimentation Erosion, Removal Source: Rosen 2005

16 4. Abatement Potentials and Costs

17 MtCO2-eq per year Figure 4.1 GHG Emissions, BAU Scenario ( ) GGG GGG % Year GGGGGGGGG GGGGGGGGG GGGGGG Source: McKinsey

18 Figure 4.2 Emissions of CO2-eq and Potential Abatement ( ) MtCO2-eq per year Potential Abatement Year Source: Heifetz

19 Figure 4.2 GHG Abatement Cost Curve (2030)* Abatement cost Euro per tco2-eq Fuel shift - oil to gas Efficient lighting Energy efficient construction * 10 principal abatement levers PV solar power Landfill electricity generation Retrofit residential building envelope Efficiency improvements in ICE vehicles (LDV) Agriculture Industry Buildings Water Refining & Gas Chemicals CST solar power Wind Transportation Waste Electric power Cement Forestry Electric vehicles Abatement potential Euro per tco2-eq Source: McKinsey

20 5. Government Decisions and Implementation

21 Table 5.1 Recent Government Decisions Decision Content Sept 2007 Action plan on reduction of air pollution from transportation sources Jan 2008 Aug 2008 Promotion of clean energy use by green taxes 5-yr investment program for renewable energy Sept 2008 Energy efficiency plan to achieve 20% savings in electricity consumption by 2020 Jan 2009 sources Targets and tools to promote goal of 10% electricity from renewable by 2020 June 2009 Establishment of directors-general committee to prepare climate change policy and formulate mitigation and adaptation action plans Dec 2009 Greening Government Initiative with targets for energy conservation, water savings, and waste reduction and recycling March 2010 Establishment of an inter-ministerial committee on formulating a national plan for the reduction of GHG emissions June 2011 Establishment of Climate Change Information Center on adaptation to help formulate policy and recommendations on minimizing vulnerability to

22 Mitigation? Mitigation and Adaptation? Adaptation without Mitigation?

23 Thanks for your attention