Energy productivity in Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC)

Transcription

1 Energy productivity in Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) International Leadership in Energy Productivity and Energy Efficiency 2016 Australian Summer Study on Energy Productivity Nicholas Howarth, D.Phil Sydney, February 24,

2 Per capita electricity consumption Per capita electricity consumption (Kwh per capita) United States Saudi Arabia Australia European Union China India Driven by its growing household wealth and the expansion of energy intensive industries the Kingdom is increasing per capita energy consumption fast. High energy prices, increasing energy efficiency and slowing economic growth generally put downward pressure on per capita electricity consumption. 2

3 Energy decoupling in GCC countries and China GDP linked GCC China GDP decoupled Source: KAPSARC analysis based on IEA data 3

4 Energy decoupling in GCC by country GDP linked Oman Kuwait KSA Qatar UAE Bahrain GDP decoupled Source: KAPSARC analysis based on IEA data 4

5 Energy decoupling in selected advanced countries GDP linked Australia USA United Kingdom GDP decoupled Source: KAPSARC analysis based on IEA data 5

6 Energy productivity and per capita income Energy productivity is not an end in itself, it must make people s lives better 10% 8% 6% GDP decoupled % CAGR Energy Productivity 4% 2% 0-2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: KAPSARC analysis based on IEA data UAE Bahrain Kuwait USA KSA Oman Qatar China GDP linked -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% % CAGR GDP per capita 6 6

7 Energy productivity and per capita income growth have collapsed since the GFC GDP decoupled (1) CAGR energy Productivity 61 (2) 108 (2) GDP linked 0 CAGR Per capita income 32 (1) 32 (2) 8 (2) 15 (3) 16 (3) 2 (2) Source: Number of countries in each growth paradigm (GCC in parentheses) KAPSARC Analysis based on IEA data 7

8 Without a significant shift in policies it is unlikely GCC countries will be able to achieve high energy productivity growth Energy Productivity ( 000) Per capita income turning points Advanced economies show transition from low to high energy productivity No transition is expected in GCC countries Per capita income ( 000) Sources: KAPSARC Energy Productivity Kuznets Curve Analysis based on OECD and World Bank data ( ) 8

9 Overview of KAPSARC-UNESCWA GCC Energy Productivity Project A plan for boosting energy productivity based on best-practice policy lessons from regional and international experience National Assessments Where are we now? Energy Productivity Goals Saudi Arabia Buildings Industry Transport U.A.E. Oman Kuwait Electricity prices Building codes Electricity and feedstock prices Energy management regulations Fuel prices Fuel Economy standards Qatar Cross sectoral policies Bahrain Policies for Utilities Public Sector governance Energy efficiency finance Diversification and innovation policies Sources: KAPSARC based on IEA (2014) Energy efficiency policy recommendations for the Arab South Mediterranean Region and UNECE (2015) Best policy practices for promoting energy efficiency 9

10 A 20 point plan for enhancing energy productivity Policies should look to enhance efficiency as well as drive economic growth, innovation and diversification High Productivity Scenario Energy Productivity Historical Values Stabilization E D C B A Diversification Transport Buildings Industry Power and water Time 10

11 Energy productivity puts energy at the center of economic planning It encompasses energy efficiency but is a much broader concept Energy Efficiency Energy savings and profit Negative-conservation focused Operational issue Individual technologies Investment in objects Multiple benefits not quantified Limited scale and scope economies Mainly a micro-level concept Energy Productivity Value creation and growth Positive-output focused Strategic issue Technological complementarity Investment in systems Multiple benefits main driver Large scale and scope economies Both a micro and macro level concept Source: KAPSARC 11