7 Questions. Making Sense of the 2016 Elections. aka, The Year America Lost Its Mind

Transcription

1 Bruce Mehlman & David Thomas October 5, days until Election Day Making Sense of the 2016 Elections aka, The Year America Lost Its Mind 7 Questions

2 #1 What Are the Key Domestic Trends?

3 Economic Growth Slowed 5.0% Compound annual growth rate of US real GDP by decade 4.5% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

4 Incomes Stagnated & Diverged

5 Source: McKinsey Technology Accelerated Years to 25% U.S. Adoption

6 100% 90% Our Population Diversified ASIAN 80% HISPANIC 70% 60% BLACK 50% WHITE COLLEGE OR MORE 40% 30% 20% WHITE NO COLLEGE DEGREE 10% 0% Sources: Pew Research Center, Sept (population); Census (college thru 2015);

7 The Media Fractured 25 INFORMS Welcome to the Misinformation Age AFFIRMS CURATED CATERED

8 Voters Had Enough 20 4 of past 5 were Change elections

9 #2 Who s Winning?

10 Race Remains Volatile Average of the Polls: Clinton +3.8% AVG. POLLING MARGIN WEEKS UNTIL THE ELECTION Source: RealClearPolitics averages on Tuesdays 7

11 Clinton Retaining Thin Electoral College Margin Based on the most current polling Clinton 317 EVs; Trump 215 EVs Obama 2012 state Romney 2012 State Trump Leading >10 Trump Leading 6-10 Trump Leading 1-5 Tied Clinton Leading 1-5 Clinton Leading 6-10 Clinton Leading >10 98 Electoral Votes 61 Electoral Votes 57 Electoral Votes 6 Electoral Votes 97 Electoral Votes 67 Electoral Votes 152Elector al Votes Alabama Arkansas Idaho Indiana Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Montana Nebraska North Dakota Oklahoma South Dakota Tennessee Utah West Virginia Wyoming Alaska Maine-2 nd dist. Missouri South Carolina Texas Arizona Georgia Iowa Mississippi Ohio Nevada Florida Maine Michigan North Carolina Rhode Island Pennsylvania Wisconsin Colorado Minnesota New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico Virginia Washington California Connecticut D.C. Delaware Hawaii Illinois Maryland Massachusetts New York Oregon Vermont 6

12 Key Voter Signals Mixed 53% Approval 65% Wrong Track Source: Gallup Presidential Approval ctr, 9/26-10/2 Source: RCP avg of polls, Oct. 3, 2016 Highest since 9/ % Want Major Changes to Way Government Works Source: Bloomberg, May 2016 Source: Conference Board, Sept. 2016

13 Source: CNN/ORC poll, Oct. 3; (change = Fox, 9/30) Voters Mixed on Issues & Attributes FOREIGN TEMPERAMENT POLICY ECONOMY CHANGE IMMIGRATION PREPARED TERRORISM HONEST

14 #3 How Does Clinton Beat Trump?

15 #1. Execution: Run a Better Campaign 789 Staff (8/31) Battleground Field Offices (8/31) 88 $373.3M Money Raised (8/31) $165.6M 658 Fundraisers Held 59 $179.1M TV Ads Run (10/1) $19.2M ubiquitous Analytics overrated extensive Debate Prep minimal

16 #2. Turn Out Women, Minorities & College Educated It s Simple Demographics Unmarried Women Millennials (18-34) African Americans College Graduates Latinos Clinton vs. Trump C+28 C+19 C+75 C+20 C+27 23

17 #3. Bait and Wait 15

18 #4 How Does Trump Beat Clinton?

19 Will 1. It Rally Be the White Same Voters Old in the Battlefield?... Rust Belt RUST BELT FIVE Obama s Margin in 12: +1.23M...DID NOT VOTE IN 12. White No College Men: 4M Non-White: 1.92M White College Women: 0.73M DEM past 6 elections (242 EVs) GOP past 4-6 elections (188 EVs) Higher White No College + Trade-Impacted

20 2. Make It a Referendum on Clinton

21 3. Winning Message Are You Tired of DYSFUNCTIONAL WASHINGTON POLITICALLY- CORRECT ELITES WEAK AMERICA

22 3. Winning Message

23 #5 What Will Happen Down Ballot?

24 GOP Control of House Overwhelmingly Likely Currently 188 Ds 174 SAFE House of Representatives races to watch Currently 247 Rs 204 SAFE 26

25 Senate Very Much In Play Current margin 54 Rs 46 D s Red are states presently held by GOP Blue are states presently held by DEM STATE DEM CHANCE GOP CHANCE Colorado >99% <1% Wisconsin 86% 14% Illinois 78% 22% Indiana 72% 28% New Hampshire 58% 42% Pennsylvania 58% 42% North Carolina 36% 64% Nevada 30% 70% Missouri 28% 72% Florida 12% 88% Ohio 2% 98% Arizona 1% 99% Iowa <1% >99%

26 #6 What Might Alter the Race?

27 Wildcards That Could Upend Outcomes Any Chance This Election Won t Have an October Surprise? New Revelations New Revelations Economic Shock Election Hacking Third Parties 18

28 The Ultimate Wildcard: Debates ROUNDS TWO (10/9) & THREE (10/19)

29 #7 How Will Policy Change?

30 Regardless of Who Wins Reshaping the Policy Environment Tech Policy America s Role in the World?

31 Now for the Good News

32 Only 1,490 Days Until the 2020 Presidential Elections

33 For a copy of these slides: bruce@mc-dc.com is one of the nation s most innovative government relations firms, offering strategic solutions to companies, trade associations, non-profits, and entrepreneurs that help them succeed in Washington.