Ethane Demand and Markets

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1 Ethane Demand and Markets September 23, 2013 Jennifer Van Dinter, PhD, CFA Manager, NGL Analytics and Consulting Services Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.

2 Conclusions U.S. ethane supply will grow to 1.7 MMb/d in 2018, an increase of nearly 90% over 2012 New processing and transportation infrastructure will allow Marcellus/Utica and Williston ethane access to demand centers Despite an estimated increase in petrochemical demand of 580 Mb/d, ethane rejection will continue through 2018 Ethane prices will remain weak through 2018 as supply growth outpaces petrochemical demand 2

3 20% Increase in Ethane Supply from Gas Plants Since 2008 Ethane Mb/d 1,200 1, Source: EIA 3

4 Ethane/Ethylene Storage Inventories MMbbls 40 Ethane/Ethylene Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-Year Range 5-Year Avg Source: EIA 4

5 Ethane Price Continues to Languish Mont Belvieu Ethane Price 6 Cents/gal Source: ICE Prices through September 20,

6 Ethane Trades Below its Price Floor Throughout Ethane Price Floor and Ceiling Cents/lb Ethane Price Ceiling Price Floor 6

7 Ethane Rejection $/MMBtu Jan 2008 MB/d 1,200 1, Jan 2008 Ethane Frac Spread to Conway Sep 2008 May 2009 Jan 2010 Sep 2010 PADD 2-Conway Sep 2008 May 2009 Jan 2010 Sep 2010 Ethane Production May 2011 Jan 2012 Sep 2012 PADD 4-Conway Ethane Production and Rejection May 2011 Jan 2012 Sep 2012 Ethane Rejection May 2013 May 2013 $/MMBtu Ethane Frac Spread to Mt. Belvieu -4 Jan Sep May Jan PADD 2-Mt. Belvieu PADD 4-Mt. Belvieu ~200 MB/d ethane rejection ~920 MB/d ethane recovered Sep 2010 May 2011 Jan 2012 Sep 2012 May 2013 PADD 3-Mt. Belvieu ~1,120 MB/d potential ethane supply Source: Bentek, EIA, ICE 7

8 Processing and Transportation Infrastructure 8

9 Processing Plant Capacity (Bcf/d) Bakken Current US gas processing capacity ~ 74 Bcf/d and set to potentially increase by 14 Bcf/d by end SW Marcellus/Utica Eagle Ford/Gulf Coast TX Source: Bentek NGL Facilities Databank 9

10 Four Ethane-Focused Pipelines on the Horizon Project Name Owner Capacity (MB/d) In-Service Date Region Texas Express Anadarko / DCP / Enbridge / Skellytown, TX to 280 9/1/2013 Enterprise Mont Belvieu, TX Aegis Enterprise Products Partners /1/2014 Mont Belvieu, TX to Steam crackers in TX and LA TBD Kinder Morgan / MarkWest 200 9/1/2015 Ohio to Mont Belvieu Bluegrass Williams & Boardwalk Joint Venture 200 9/1/2015 OH, PA to Gulf Coast Mariner South Lone Star NGL / Sunoco 200 3/1/2015 Mont Belvieu, TX to Nederland, TX Sterling III ONEOK Partners /1/2013 Medford, OK to Mont Belvieu, TX Front Range Anadarko / DCP / Enbridge /1/2013 DJ Basin, CO to Skellytown, TX Eagle Ford Enterprise Products Partners 140 7/1/2013 La Salle County, TX to Yoakum Plant, TX ATEX Express Enterprise Products Partners 190 3/31/2014 Houston, PA to Gulf Coast Crosstex NGL Crosstex 77 TBA Permian, Eagle Ford, Barnett to Acadia/Ascension, LA Mariner East MarkWest / Sunoco 70 9/1/2014 Houston, PA to Markus Hook, PA MAPL - Rockies Segment Enterprise Products Partners 75 3/1/2014 Rockies to Gaines County, TX Bakken ONEOK Partners 75 9/1/2014 Williston, ND to Weld County, CO Vantage Mistral Energy 40 12/1/2013 Williston, ND to AB, Canada Arbuckle ONEOK Partners 15 12/1/2013 Velma, OK to Mont Belvieu, TX Panola Expansion Enterprise Products Partners 15 11/1/2013 Cartage, TX to Mont Belvieu, TX Source: Bentek Facilities Databank, company reports 10

11 Ethane and Propane Pipelines on the Horizon By the end of 2015, could be as much as 300 Mb/d of incremental dedicated ethane and propane pipeline capacity from the Williston, Marcellus and Utica Conway Mont Belvieu 11

12 New Ethane Demand 12

13 NGL Greenfield Ethylene Projects Project Name/Location Owner Ethane Capacity (Mb/d) In-Service Date Status Region Baytown, TX ExxonMobil Planned Gulf Coast Baytown, TX Chevron Planned Gulf Coast Ingleside, TX OxyChem/ Mexichem Planned Gulf Coast Westlake, LA Sasol Planned Gulf Coast Freeport, TX Dow Chemical Under Construction Gulf Coast Point Comfort, TX Formosa Planned Gulf Coast Total

14 Ethane Demand Projects Owner Location Increased Capacity (MMlb/Yr) Increased Ethane Demand (Mb/d) In-service date Greenfield 111 Appalachia Resins Wheeling, WV Aither Chemicals Charleston, WV Shell Chemical Company Monaca, PA 3, Brownfield 96 Ineos Alvin, TX Williams Geismar, LA BASF Total Petrochemicals Baytown, TX Chevron Phillips Old Ocean, TX LyondellBasell LaPorte, TX Westlake Calvert City, KY LyondellBasell Channelview, TX LyondellBasell Corpus Christi, TX Westlake Lake Charles, LA Debottleneck 38 Westlake Calvert City, KY Dow Chemical Company Plaquemine, LA

15 560 Mb/d of New Ethane Demand Announced Along Gulf Coast 15

16 Steam Cracker Operations United States and Europe /lb Steam Cracker Margins by Feedstock (10) (20) Light Naphtha N Butane Propane Ethane 16

17 Steam Cracker Operations in the US increasing Ethane demand Mb/d Feedstock Demand 1,000 70% % % % % % % - 0% Naphtha Propane Ethane Percentage of Feedstock Naphtha Propane Ethane Source: Hodson Report 17

18 Supply and Demand for Ethane in the U.S. 18

19 NGL Supply Growth US supply growth from gas plants expected to reach 4.3 MMb/d by 2018 MMb/d 5.00 US NGL Production from Gas Plants Source: Bentek 19

20 Ethane Supply by Basin MMb/d 2.5 North American Ethane Supply from Gas Plants Appalachia Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Anadarko Other US Source: Bentek 20

21 Ethane Supply/Demand Ethane demand will struggle to keep pace with supply growth Mb/d Petchem Exports Rejection Total Supply Source: Bentek 21

22 US Ethane Rejection Ethane rejection will be primarily in Williston and Appalachia MMb/d 400 US Ethane Rejection by Region PADD 2 PADD 1 PADD 4 Source: Bentek 22

23 US Ethane Transportation Costs Williston and Marcellus/Utica Are Least Economic Vantage 40 Mb/d 14 cpg Bakken 61 Mb/d 13.8 cpg West Rockies East Rockies Bakken 6.2 cpg 8.9 cpg Conway ATEX 190 Mb/d 14.5 cpg Mariner West 50 Mb/d SW Marcellus/Utica Bluegrass 90 Mb/d Mariner East 47 Mb/d Mont Belvieu Source: Bentek 23

24 Ethane Prices Remain Sluggish $/gal $0.90 Mont Belvieu Price Forecast $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $- Source: Bentek, ICE 24

25 Conclusions U.S. ethane supply will grow to 1.7 MMb/d in 2018, an increase of nearly 90% over 2012 New processing and transportation infrastructure will allow Marcellus/Utica and Williston ethane access to demand centers Despite an estimated increase in petrochemical demand of 580 Mb/d, ethane rejection will continue through 2018 Ethane prices will remain weak through 2018 as supply growth outpaces petrochemical demand 25

26 Questions? 26

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