Internationell påverkan hur påverkas Ryssland, Europa och Sverige

Transcription

1 Internationell påverkan hur påverkas Ryssland, Europa och Sverige Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Senior Analyst Macro/Oil Februar

2 US shale gas production can become a player on the European natural gas market

3 Proven natural gas reserves by the end of 2011, in % Rest of the world, 30% US, 4% 21.4% Russian Federation Norway, 1% Saudi Arabia, 4% Qatar, 12% Turkmenistan, 11.7% Iran, 16% Source: BP 3

4 Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates large potential 1, ,404 1,225 1, tcm Source: EIA 4

5 Europe and Asia emerge as main importers of gas exporters Europe Asia & Oceania BCM per annum North America Central & South America importers Middle East Africa Sources: GIIGNL 2011, EIA data, BP Statistical Review 2012, IEA and Nordea Markets 5 Anne Schult Ulriksen

6 EU 27 import of natural gas - % of extra EU imports by country of origin Russia 33.0% 33.0% Norway 27.8% 26.6% Algeria 14.2% 12.9% Qatar 5.2% 11.0% Nigeria 3.2% 4.3% Trinidad and Tobago Egypt Libya 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 2.7% 0.7% Other third countries 9.4% 11.8% Source: Eurostat 6

7 Natural gas reserves in the Middle East and North Africa, account for more than 40% of the world s total- in % of global gas Morocco Algeria 2.2% Tunisia Nigeria 2.5% Libya 0.7% Syria Lebanon 0.1% Jordan Egypt 1.1% Sudan & South Sudan Iraq 1.7% Saudi Arabia 3.9% Kuwait 6.1% Iran 15.9% Oman 0.5% Yemen 0.2% Bahrain Qatar 12% UAE 2.9% Source: BP and Nordea 7

8 EU 27 LNG imports by exporter new competition from the US 100% % 75 50% 25% BCM per annum 0% YTD 0 Algeria Egypt Nigeria Norway Peru Qatar Trinidad & Tobago Others LNG import level Source: Eurostat, Eurogas, BP Statistical Review 2012, and Nordea Markets 8

9 Will Russian gas production be redirected after the shale revolution hits the market? Source: EIA 9

10 FSU export to Europe is expected to decline BCM per annum Exports to other regions rising E 2013E 2014E 2015E Net exports to Middle East Call from Baltic demand Call from Asian demand BCM per annum Remaining exports to Europe set to fall E 2013E 2014E 2015E Indigenous consumption Nordea Base Case FSU Production Nordea Base Case Exports to other regions Chinese imports of Turkmen gas set to rise towards current capacity of 30BCMa, with additional string coming online late 2014E Sources: Rystad Energy, primary company websites, BP statistical review 2012, and Nordea Markets 10

11 The US shale revolution and increasing LNG export trigger new natural gas pricing policy in Europe moving away from oil-linked contracts 200 GBp per Therm Brent crude, blue Natural Gas, National Balancing Point, green USD per barrel Source: Reuters EcoWin Source: PIRA, Reuters Ecowin and Nordea 11

12 Shale oil a necessity to counterbalance MENA production risk

13 Oil price outlook with high political risk is US shale production necessary to calm the market 11/02/2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2012E E E USD/barrel Oct EU/US sanctions and South Sudan Dec 11 Iran tests to shut Hormuz Oil price timeline Nuclear talks Nuclear talks II Euro crisis Spain worries EU agreement Iran/Israel Syria Norway strike Draghi EU embargo/ US sanctions QE3 US election/ fiscal cliff Gaza Strip Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 12 USD/barrel Tighter physical market Alge ria Feb Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin 13

14 Oil reserves in the Middle East and North Africa, account for more than half of the world s oil reserves - in % of global oil reserves Morocco Algeria 0.7% Tunisia Nigeria 2.3% Libya 2.9% Lebanon Jordan Egypt 0.3% Syria 0.2% Sudan & South Sudan 0.3% Iraq 8.7% Saudi Arabia 16.1% Kuwait 6.1% Yemen 0.2% Iran 9.1% Bahrain Qatar 1.5% UAE 5.9% Oman 0.3% Source: BP and Nordea 14

15 OPEC spare capacity at uncomfortably low levels World s top net oil exporters - only 2 politically stable 6 5 Implied OPEC effective spare capacity and Brent price forecast Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Canada Qatar Algeria Venezuela Norway Angola Iraq Nigeria Kuwait UAE Iran Russia Saudi Arabia mb/d Q2002 2Q2004 4Q2005 2Q2007 4Q2008 2Q2010 4Q2011 Effective spare Effective spare (f'cast) Brent 1.pos, rhs Brent (f'cast), rhs USD/bbl Million barrels per day Source: EIA and Nordea Markets 15

16 US oil import share will fall as domestic oil production, shale gas production and energy efficiency will increase High production Low demand Moderate Low US oil import in % of demand Thousand barrels per day Changes in export volumes in 2017 from largest oil exporter in the world today may have a net export deficit in 2017 who will cover the gap? Source: PIRA, IEA, Nordea Markets 16

17 Russia increasingly dependent on oil and gas export Other exports Oil products Oil Exports, % of total exports Other export Natural gas Oil products Oil Gas Source: EIA 17

18 Estimated Chinese share of overseas equity in oil exporting countries, Q1 2020, in total 1.36 mb/d Others Tunisia Russia Syria Angola Venezuela Sudan Kazakhstan In per cent of total 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Motivation: Expand oil and gas reserves and production Diversify energy supplies to avoid risks Become «international NOC» Develop an integrated supply chain Gain technology know-how and streamline managerial capacities Others: Nigeria, Indonesia, Peru, Ecuador, Oman, Colombia, Canada, Yemen, Cameroon, Gabon, Iraq. Azerbaijian, Uzbekistan Source: IEA 18

19 Regional oil demand and net trade Source: IEA 19

20 Transportation sector accounts for more than 50% of global oil consumption and this share is expected to increase with no real competiton from other energy sources in the horizon In % Transport Res/Comm. Industry Electric Gen. 20 Source: PIRA and Nordea Markets

21 Sweden consumes only 0.4% of global energy consumption - effect of shale revolution will be limited Per cent In boe Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear energy Hydro electricity Renewables Source: BP and Nordea Markets 21

22 Contact details: Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Senior Macro/Oil Analyst Commodities Research Nordea Markets Phone: Mobile:

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