Ekonomiese scenarios vir aartappelverbouing in die Sandveld
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1 Ekonomiese scenarios vir aartappelverbouing in die Sandveld deur Martin de Wit Presentasie gehou by SAKO AGM, 13 April 2010, Velddrif
2 Ekonomie en ekologie Ekonomiese stelsel (inset koste, pryse, verbruikers gedrag) + Ekologiese stelsel (water, land, biodiversiteit) = Saam in een stelsel
3 Prys van olie en diesel Bron: Wikipedia, gebaseer op data van EIA Bron: Wikipedia Bron:
4 Reenval en temperatuur Bron Archer et al 2009
5 Tendense in die Sandveld In die konteks van wisselvalligheid en onsekerheid kyk na tendense op grond waarvan scenarios gebou kan word. Scenarios is nie daar om die toekoms te voorspel nie, maar om te verbeter ons reaksie op wat die toekoms vir ons kan inhou.
6 Aartappel pryse Potatoes Price (R/10kg; National) Potatoes Price (R/10kg), YoY%ch
7 Produsentewaarde en pryse 5000 Producer Value (Rm; National) Producer Value and Prices: YoY %ch
8 Hektare geplant 8000 Hectares planted Sandveld Hectares Planted: Sandveld vs National, YoY % ch Hectares Planted, National Ha planted Sandveld, % ch Ha planted National, % ch
9 Produsentewaarde en hektare geplant Producer value hectares planted: National YoY %ch Ha planted National, % ch Producer value (National) (Rm), %ch
10 Ekonomiese scenarios (I) Scenario Omskrywing 1. Geen verrassings Bestaande tendense word volgehou II. Optimisties Toekoms is beter as verlede III. Pessimisties Toekoms is slegter as verlede IV. Ramp Iets uitermate slegs gebeur in toekoms V. Wonderlik Iets uitermate fantasties gebeur in toekoms Bron: Cornish, Futuring. The exploration of the future. World Future Society Factors used in scenario analysis: Input Costs Price (R/10kg) Hectares planted Yield Water Use Land needed Unit Base value Percentage adjustment BAU Optimist Pessimist Disaster Miracle R/ha % 10% 25% 30% 5% R/10kg 21 12% 15% 8% -5% 20% Hectare % 3% -5% -10% 10% Ton 40 0% 1% -1% -5% 5% Mm3 46-3% 3% -5% -10% 10% Hectare % 3% -5% -10% 10%
11 Ekonomiese scenarios (II) Scenario Omskrywing 1. Geen verrassings Produksiewaarde bly styg ten spyte van stygende insetkostes en minder hektare wat geplant word. Stygende aartappelpryse grootliks hiervoor verantwoordelik. Rond 2012/13 is totale kostes egter groter as inkomste en aartappelbedryf as geheel in Sandveld staar bankkrotskap in die gesig. Beide land en water gebruik neem geleidelik af. II. Optimisties III. Pessimisties Produksiewaarde styg vinniger as insetkostes agv stygend aantal hektare wat geplant word, volgehoue goeie aartappel prys stygings en selfs stygings in opbrengste wat per hektaar behaal word. Produksiewaarde van Sandveld aartappels styg tot rond R700 miljard in 2014/15. Water en land is geredelik beskikbaar. Insetkostes styg onrusbarend vinnig. Hektare wat geplant word daal ook. Stygings in aartappelpryse is nie genoegsaam om hiervoor te kompenseer nie. Sandveld aartappelbedryf is nie meer ekonomies haalbaar nie en landbouers leef alreeds op alternatiewe inkomstebronne soos alternatiewe boerdery, lenings en spaargeld. Land en water gebruik neem vinnig af. IV. Ramp Insetkostes styg teen vlakke wat net voor die resessie gesien is. Die pryse wat vir aartappels betaal word stort inmekaar. Sandveld boere in stryd om oorlewing. Druk op water en land neem baie vinnig af. V. Wonderlik Insetkostes daal tot vlakke onder inflasie. Groot vraag na aartappels laat pryse baie vinnig styg. Produksiewaarde styg tot nagenoeg R3 miljard in 2014/15. Land en water is beskikbaar en die gebruik neem vinnig toe.
12 Ekonomiese scenarios (III) 3,000 Economic Scenarios, Revenue Rm 2,250 1, ,500-2, BAU Optimistic Pessimistic Disaster Miracle
13 Konklusie Sandveld aartappelboerdery onder huidige omstandighede is ekonomies onder druk Verdere moontlike ekologiese beperkings Verdere data en modellering nodig
14 A warning about the future is not a prediction of doom, but a recommendation to follow a different path Bron: Gebaseer op Meadows et al Limits to Growth. The 30-year Update, p277
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