Research on the Relationship between Social Security Fund Investment Yield and Social Security Level

Transcription

1 Inernaional Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 5 No. 1; January 2014 Research on he Relaionship beween Social Securiy Fund Invesmen Yield and Social Securiy Level Shan Mingxia Shanghai Universiy of Engineering Science Shanghai, China Chang Cai Shanghai Universiy of Engineering Science Shanghai, China Absrac This paper defines he mehods of how measure social securiy level. Firsly, based on he conens of social securiy, he paper calculaes he oal expendiure of social securiy fund by years; secondly, processing daa wihin he index sysem wih he mehod of second exponenial smoohing; hirdly, by using SPSS sofware o sudy he relaionship beween invesmen rae of reurn of social securiy and social securiy level. Empirical resuls show ha here is cubic curve relaionship beween hem. Keywords: invesmen rae of reurn of social securiy; social securiy level; SPSS; empirical analysis 1 Inroducion Wih he deepening implemenaion and comprehensive developmen of he social securiy sysem in China, various relaed issues and challenges ensued, such as aging populaion, he risk of pension funds and invesmen, levels of social securiy. Along wih he dynamic developmen of he srucure of he world's populaion, China, he Unied Saes, Japan and some oher counries of he world have sudied he issue involved in mainenance and appreciaion he values of social securiy fund. In China, you can ofen hear voices of ha "wheher social securiy fund should ener he marke or no?, he proporion and he way for i ino he sock marke?, and, should enerprise annuiy proceed fundamenal annuiies go ino he marke?" Throughou he case, no maer wha kind of voice, i is easy o see, under he background of populaion aging, all hope "social securiy fund 1 ", he affordable and prospecive reservoir, o be value and susainable, and succeeded in facing difficulies and challenges. Over he years, however, based on he invesmen principles and ROI perspecive, we can' briefly come o he conclusion ha i had he abiliy o cope wih fuure risk, and we can' simply conclude ha oday's fund reurns are able o mee he moderae level of social securiy. Based on his idea, his paper sudies he relaionship beween invesmen rae of reurn of social securiy and social securiy level. By empirical research and analysis, undersand and sudy he dynamic effecs beween hem. 2 Daa Sources and Index Sysem Esablishmen 2.1 Daa sources The daa used in his aricle include rae of social securiy fund invesmen reure, he GDP, he expendiures of he social securiy funds, ec. Daa mainly comes from China Saisical Yearbook , as well as calendar year saisics NSSF public daa and Human Resources and Social Securiy Minisry of Public Saisics Annual Daa. 2.2 Index sysem Indicaor variables used in he ex are: 1 Here refers o he Naional Social Securiy Fund, he same below. 205

2 Cener for Promoing Ideas, USA S : Social securiy level; Sa : Toal expendiure of social securiy; G : GDP; R : Rae of social securiy fund invesmen reurn; S ( 2) / R(2) : Daa obained afer he second smoohed; O / E / Z / J / M :Namely social insurance expendiure on various projecs, including: basic pension insurance, urban basic medical insurance, unemploymen insurance, work injury insurance and maerniy insurance; T : Social securiy and employmen, healh, housing securiy, social securiy benefis and oher iems of expendiure. 3 Measuremen Mehod of he Level of Social Securiy The social securiy level is an imporan facor of he social securiy sysem, which has grea influence on he sound developmen of he social economy and he social sabiliy. Wih he dynamics of social securiy level, observing and analyzing he securiy sysem can help us analyze wheher he exising social securiy level is able o mee he needs of people. The social securiy level offers us a measure o esimae he degree of social members enjoy social securiy, as well as refers o he oal amoun of social securiy expendiure accouns for he proporion of gross domesic produc (GDP). According o China's curren social securiy sysem, his paper defines social securiy expendiure, include of pension, medical, unemploymen, work injury and maerniy social insurance expendiures as well as social relief, social special care and oher social securiy benefis expendiures. Tha is o say: Sa = O + E + Z + J + M + T (1) Depending on he seleced Measuremen mehod of he level of social securiy, he calculaing formula of he level of social securiy can be achieved easily. Tha is: Social securiy level = oal of social securiy expendiure / GDP. 4 Empirical Analyses 4.1 Daa analysis Sa S = (2) G Table 1 relaed daa of he social securiy fund invesmen reurns and social securiy level 2 Year R(%) G(RMB/0.1billion) Sa(RMB/0.1billion) S(%) Daa source: China saisical yearbook from 2002 o 2012, and over he year s public daa of he naional social securiy fund council and human resources and social securiy public saisical yearbook daa. 206

3 Inernaional Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 5 No. 1; January 2014 Figure 1 rend char of social securiy fund invesmen reurns and social securiy level 3 Descripive saisics for he seleced variables, he resul is shown in figure 1. Based on he above, he relaionship beween he rae of social securiy fund invesmen reurn and social securiy level is no very significan. Meanwhile, he analysis of he daa shows ha daa in 2008, he social securiy fund invesmen reurn, is negaive. This daa belongs o he pariculariy, mainly due o he 2007 global economic crisis. Therefore, his aricle is mainly adoping he mehod of he secondary exponenial smoohing o he daa respecively. Is model is: S ( ) = αs ( 1) + ( 1 α)s ( ) (3) Among he model, represens he curren year; T represens years ha from he curren year o predic year. Mahemaical model for predicion is: ) x = a b T (4) + T + α In he formula (4), a = 2S ( 1) S ( 2 ), b = (S ( 1) S ( 2 )) 1-α Daa of he rae of social securiy fund invesmen reurns and social securiy level afer he secondary exponenial smoohing is shown in he following able 2. Table 2 afer he second exponenial smoohed daa Year R(2) S(2) Graph daa sources: he daa in able

4 Cener for Promoing Ideas, USA Empirical analysis Since he rae of social securiy fund invesmen reurn is economically cyclical, and he social securiy fund iself is economy and supporabiliy, social securiy level will change along wih he social securiy fund invesmen reurn changes. When he social securiy fund invesmen yield is high, he level of social securiy will also go for perfec and improve, however, even if he reurn on invesmen of social securiy is reduced, due o he economic developmen, social securiy level may also rise. Therefore, make he following assumpions: Assumpions: There is non-linear relaionship beween social securiy fund invesmen rae(r) and he level of social securiy(s). This aricle carries on he regression analysis by SPSS sofware, and a variey of curve esimaion resuls are as follows. Table 3 Model Summary and Parameer Esimaes Dependen variable: S(2) Independen variable: R(2) Equaion Model Summary Parameer Esimaes R Square F df1 df2 Sig. Consan b1 b2 b3 Linear Logarihmic Quadraic Cubic Growh Exponenial Figure 2 Regression analysis resuls (he definiion of he upper and lower limis) Social Securiy Fund as a reserve funds o response risk, he invesmen rae of reurn will undoubedly become he focus of aenion. This paper, hrough he empirical analysis, mainly based on he real daa of he social securiy fund invesmen yields, macroscopic o grasp he relaionship beween he wo. 5 Conclusions The empirical resuls show he following condiions :(1) here is no sandard linear correlaion beween social securiy fund invesmen yield and social securiy level, ha is o say here is curve-correlaion beween hem;(2) when he relaionship beween hem is shown as a cubic curve (Cubic), he empirical resuls is bes, as he coefficien of correlaion R2=0.983, and according o P values, which is he mos significan correlaion;(3)he empirical resul shows ha when he invesmen yields lower han a cerain value, and reaches a cerain value, he relaionship beween hem is obvious posiive correlaion, however, when invesmen yields beween he wo numerical, shows he negaive correlaion relaionship;(4) on he whole, you will find a cyclical process like ha "rapid developmen - slow growh - rapid developmen ". 208

5 Inernaional Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 5 No. 1; January 2014 By considering he reasons ha cause changes in he level of social securiy, you can know social progress and economic developmen is anoher inernal reason. However, I is well known ha he NSSF doesn' implemen he naional plan as a whole in China, some provincial overall planning caused reenion and wase of money o a cerain exen. Therefore, under he condiion of accommodae he seps of economic developmen, upgrading he provincial capial invesmen way, as well as broaden social securiy funds invesmen channels, seady reurn on invesmen are a key o he safey developmen of he social securiy funds chain. References Liu C. (2008) Empirical Analysis on he Impac of he Level of Social Securiy on Residens' Consumpion. Consumer economics,(24)3: Mu H.Z. (2001) Economic effecs of social securiy levels. Chinese journal of populaion science,3: Yang C.Y., He W.J. (2004) Sudy on he Adapabiliy Relaion beween Social Securiy Level and Economy Developmen. Journal of public managemen,1: Song S.Y., Li C.L. (2008) China's Social Securiy Expendiure Level, 1992 o Chinese journal of populaion science, 3: