Natural Gas from Shale A Policy Perspective. Howard Newman Pine Brook Road Partners, LLC March 5, 2010

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1 Natural Gas from Shale A Policy Perspective Howard Newman Pine Brook Road Partners, LLC March 5, 2010

2 Pine Brook Road Partners! Investment firm that specializes in business building and other equity investing, primarily in the energy and financial services industry! $1.4+ billion fund closed in March 2009! Current portfolio includes six startup exploration and production companies (2 shale gas companies) 2

3 Natural Gas from Shale! Ongoing revolution in the natural gas business driven by continued improvement in the ability to produce natural gas from shale resources! Almost all of the traditional wisdom about natural gas in the United States is being turned upside down! How the industry evolves - and what role gas will play in the US energy future - is now more about politics and policy than it is about economics and resource 3

4 Brief Intro to Natural Gas from Shale! Shale gas is natural gas that is trapped in rocks of such low permeability that it does not flow naturally when drilled! These rocks are shales which serve as both source and reservoir! Production of shale gas requires the creation of increased porosity through hydraulic fracturing! The issue with resource plays is not whether there is gas; the question is: what does it cost to get it out? 4

5 Natural Gas from Shale! Barnett Shale was pioneered by Mitchell Energy Cracking the code: Horizontal drilling and fracture stimulation! Next generation of shale resources Woodford, Fayetteville, Marcellus, Haynesville, Eagle Ford Less than 5 years now required to determine economics! Today: over Tcf identified in 26 shale plays! 100+ years of supply at current consumption 5

6 Unconventional Resource Base Horn River shale Mannville CBM Antrim shale Montney Bighorn / Outer Foothills Tight Gas Bakken shale (oil) Horseshoe Canyon CBM New Albany shale Utica shale Appalachian Basin (Marcellus shale, Huron / Ohio shale) Powder River Basin (Big George) Green River Basin (Pinedale, Jonah) Uinta & Piceance Basin (Mesaverde Tight Gas, Niobrara shale) San Juan Basin (Fruitland CBM, Mesaverde Tight Gas) Shale Gas Basins Coalbed Methane Basins Woodford shale Tight Gas Basins West Texas Barnett / Woodford shale Barnett shale Fayetteville shale Emerging Plays Pearsall shale Eagle Ford shale Haynesville shale Black Warrior Basin Key Unconventional Gas Basins Barnett Woodford Fayetteville Haynesville Montney Marcellus Horn River Eagle Ford Utica Total Resource (Tcf) N/A Depth (f eet) 6,500 8,500 6,000 12,000 1,500 7,000 10,500 13,500 6,000 10,000 2,500 8,500 6,500 8,500 4,000 10,000 2,300 6,000 Thickness (feet) , ,500 GIP (Bcfe/section) Avg. EUR (Bcfe) Above ground challenges Low Medium Medium Low High High High Low Low Delineation High High High Low Medium Low / Medium Low Low Low Source: Wall Street research. 6

7 Economics of Natural Gas from Shale Shale Gas Attractive Break-Even Economics $12 $10 $8 Other Shales $6 $4 $2 $0 Haynesville Shale - Core Marcellus Shale - Horiz Huron Shale Barnett Shale - Core Fayetteville Shale Pinedale Anticline Haynesville Shale - East TX Woodford Shale Unita Basin Marcellus Shale - Vert. Cotton Valley Sands Piceance Basin U.S. Average Western Oklahoma Barnett Shale - Western Ext. Powder River Basin (CBM) Source: Credit Suisse research. Break-even price includes 10% return on capital. 7

8 Shale Gas and Supply! Shale plays present the opportunity to increase gas supply by a considerable amount - perhaps by a factor of two - at prices at or below current prices! Once developed, shale plays have a very long reserve life and production can be maintained at a constant level for relatively small amounts of capital! Economic imperative to sell gas under long-term contracts because of the long-lived nature of reserves and constant threat of over capacity 8

9 Where Will All This Gas Go?! Power plants (run existing ones more)! Power plants (build new ones)! Transportation: CNG/electric cars! Chemical industries reborn! Residential space heating 9

10 Reasons to Say YES!! Less carbon and less cost!! Natural gas is domestic! Price stability can be created! Jobs, jobs and jobs! No need for LNG terminals 10

11 Reasons to Say NO!! Large environmental issues! Land use! Water use/reuse! Increased congestion on the roads! Threat to demand for renewal resources 11

12 Employment Issues Penn States estimates over 175,000 new jobs in Pennsylvania alone by 2020 Gas jobs vs. Coal jobs Lots of small wells vs. a few large development -Lots of 5 BCF wells that cost $5 million -No need for $ million offshore platforms 12

13 Economics of Natural Gas from Shale Shale Gas Attractive Break-Even Economics $12 $10 $8 Other Shales $6 $4 $2 $0 Haynesville Shale - Core Marcellus Shale - Horiz Huron Shale Barnett Shale - Core Fayetteville Shale Pinedale Anticline Haynesville Shale - East TX Woodford Shale Unita Basin Marcellus Shale - Vert. Cotton Valley Sands Piceance Basin U.S. Average Western Oklahoma Barnett Shale - Western Ext. Powder River Basin (CBM) Source: Credit Suisse research. Break-even price includes 10% return on capital. 13

14 Environmental Issues! Shale reservoirs is by far and away the cheapest source of new natural gas supplies! But should policy create consumers surplus, producer surplus or environmental surplus?! Simply put: do we want $4 gas or $6 gas? Higher prices may mean less growth Higher prices may mean lower per capital incomes Lower prices may mean higher environmental costs 14

15 What About Transportation?! Increased government use of CNG in fleets! Long haul truck conversion to CNG! Possible incentives for private use of CNG vehicles and fueling infrastructure! Fuel for electric vehicles as well! Compare to hybrids 15

16 What Policies Can Make This Happen?! Stable environmental regulations! Unitization to handle lease expiration! Need to adjust utility regulation Long-term contracts for supply Long-term contracts with capacity payments Can t recover capacity payments with spark spread and low gas prices! Encourage natural gas as a transportation fuel 16

17

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