Renewable Energy in The Netherlands July 2016
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1 Renewable Energy in The Netherlands July 2016
2 Dr. Martien Visser Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen Partner of the Energy Academy Europe This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates. Readers are encouraged to add, to improve the quality of the information provided. Jul-16 Page 2
3 The Entrance database on Renewable Energy is regularly improved by the creation and/or refinement of (sub)models Recent improvements May 2016: The national statistical authority (CBS) has presented an estimate about the production of renewable energy in The Netherlands in Its estimate of 118 PJ was close to the estimate of this database of 117 PJ. On the other hand, the estimate of CBS of the Dutch gross final energy consumption is slightly lower than calculated using this database. Consequently, there is a small difference in the estimated Dutch renewable percentage in 2015 between CBS (5.8%) and this database (5.6%). The real (official) percentage will be calculated by Eurostat to be published early June 2016: a graph has added (sheet 5) presenting the long term trend of the quarterly percentage of renewable energy in The Netherlands Jul-16 Page 3
4 July 2016 In a Nutshell The percentage renewable power was 10.7%, down from 12.9% last year. The fraction renewable energy in July was 6.0%, down from 6.2% last year. Electricity production by wind was 21% lower y-o-y and reached 0.48 TWh. Electricity production by solar-pv was 12% higher y-o-y and reached 0.18 TWh Average utilization of wind capacity was 18% and of solar-pv, it was 15% CO2 emissions from energy usage were 11.9 Mton, 2% less than last year The fraction renewable energy in Q has been assessed at 6.0% Jul-16 Page 4
5 Fraction Renewable Energy Q The fraction renewable energy has been calculated using the official EU regulations. In Q2 2016, the Netherlands produced 6.0% of its final energy consumption in the form of renewables. Dutch energy policy is focused to reach 14% renewable energy in Jul-16 Page 5
6 Content July 2016 data Monthly profiles Monthly data Hourly data Miscellaneous Jul-16 Page 6
7 SELECTED ENERGY DATA FROM JULY 2016 Jul-16 Page 7
8 Renewable Energy July 2016 Renewable Energy is produced in various forms. The most important contributor is biomass. In July 2016, according to the official rules, 6.0% of all energy consumed in the Netherlands was renewable energy. Jul-16 Page 8
9 Final Energy Demand July 2016 Energy is used for many different purposes. In July 2016, the most important energy applications were gas (industry and heating) and oil (transport). In the calculation of the percentage of renewable energy, energy usage in the energy sector, for shipping and for feedstock are omitted. Jul-16 Page 9
10 Final Energy Demand July 2016 (vs 2015) Energy usage in 2016 is similar to July 2015 Jul-16 Page 10
11 CO2 Emissions July 2016 In July, the national energy-related CO2 emissions, calculated using the official formula, are estimated at 11.9 Mton, down from 12.1 Mton in July Jul-16 Page 11
12 Power Generation Capacity July 2016 The capacity (beginning of July) is the so-called name-plate capacity. In practice, not all capacity is available for the market due to planned and unplanned maintenance and mothballing. Jul-16 Page 12
13 Power Supplies July 2016 In July 2016, power consumption was 9.6 TWh, 5% higher than last year. Jul-16 Page 13
14 CO2 from Power Generation July 2016 In July 2016, 70% of the CO2 emissions from the power sector came from the coal-fired power stations. The CO2 emissions from imports are given for comparison, since these do not contribute to the national CO2 emissions. Jul-16 Page 14
15 SELECTED MONTHLY PROFILES (using daily data) Jul-16 Page 15
16 Daily Renewable Energy July 2016 Various contributions of renewable energy per day, classification according to CBS. In July, the average Dutch gross final energy consumption was 1220 GWh per day. One GWh is one million kwh or about m3 of natural gas. Jul-16 Page 16
17 Energy Demand July 2016 Energy demand shows a typical weekday-weekend pattern. Gas demand is partly dependent on ambient temperature. Jul-16 Page 17
18 Conventional Power Production July 2016 July 2016 is characterized by high volatility in wind and solar production and imports, and hence, fossil fuel generation, including coal-fired generation, varied significantly. Jul-16 Page 18
19 Wind and Solar Power Production July 2016 July 2016 was characterized by low availability of wind and relative high solar production. The average utilization rate of the wind turbines was just 18% and for solar-pv it was 15%. 1 GWh is sufficient to provide power for a year for 300 households. Jul-16 Page 19
20 Contribution of Renewable Energy July 2016 In July, the percentage of renewable power varied between 6% and 22%, with an average of 10.7%. The every percentage of renewable energy was 6.0%. These percentages have been estimated using the official EU procedures. Jul-16 Page 20
21 SELECTED MONTHLY ENERGY DATA Jul-16 Page 21
22 Gross Final Energy Consumption 2016 (and 2015) The gross final consumption of energy is a quantity used to calculate the percentage of renewable energy. This quantity excludes the energy used in the energy sector (mainly due to the production of electricity), for international shipping and for feedstock and the energy used for international aviation above 6.18% of the total Jul-16 Page 22
23 Gas Demand (excluding gas-to-power) 2016 (and 2015) Gas consumption in July, excluding gas-to-power, was similar to last year. Jul-16 Page 23
24 Gas Production 2016 (and 2015) Dutch natural gas production in July was lower than last year. As far known, it was at the lowest level since the development of the Groningen gas field. Jul-16 Page 24
25 Power Demand 2016 (and 2015) In July Dutch power demand was 5% higher than last year. Jul-16 Page 25
26 Wind Production 2016 (and 2015) Wind production in July 2016 was 0.48 TWh, lower than last year. In July 2016, the average utilization of wind capacity, combined onshore and offshore, was 18%. Jul-16 Page 26
27 Solar PV Production 2016 (and 2015) In July 2016, electricity generation by Solar PV in The Netherlands reached 0.18 TWh. This was higher than last year, because of the increase in solar-pv capacity and more sunshine. In July, the average utilization rate of solar-pv capacity was 15%. Jul-16 Page 27
28 Coal-to-Power 2016 (and 2015) In July, coal-fired power generation has been estimated to be lower than last year. Jul-16 Page 28
29 Gas to Power 2016 (and 2015) In July, gas-fired power has been estimated to be similar to July Jul-16 Page 29
30 LNG imports 2016 (and 2015) This figure depicts the amount of LNG injected into the gas grid, as presented by GTS. The figure excludes the usage of LNG as transport fuel. 1 TWh is equal to about 100 million m3. July--15 Page 30
31 Renewable Energy All Sources 2016 (and 2015) This is an assessment based on a variety of assumptions. After four months of increases, in recent months, renewable energy consumption was slightly lower than in Jul-16 Page 31
32 Renewable Energy Percentage 2016 (and 2015) In July, the percentage of renewable energy was 6.0%, slightly lower than last year. Jul-16 Page 32
33 CO2 Emissions 2016 (and 2015) After a significant rise of the CO2 emissions in 2015, compared to 2014, the CO2 emissions in 2016 have been similar to Jul-16 Page 33
34 ENERGY DEMAND IN A NUTSHELL Jul-16 Page 34
35 Energy Demand July 2016 Dutch government has allocated Energy Demand in four categories. These categories (and this figure) do not take into account energy demand for international shipping, aviation and feedstock. During summer, energy demand for low temperature heat is very low. (1 GWh is about equal to the average daily energy production of 40 wind turbines of 3 MW each) Jul-16 Page 35
36 Energy Demand Low Temperature Heat The primary energy requirement for Low Temperature heat, mainly buildings and green houses, varies with ambient temperature. Jul-16 Page 36
37 Energy Demand High Temperature Heat The primary energy requirement for High Temperature Heat (mainly industry) varies with the economic activities in the Netherlands. Jul-16 Page 37
38 Energy Demand Transportation The primary energy requirement for Transportation (excluding international shipping and aviation) varies with the economic activity in the Netherlands. Fuels bought abroad, e.g. since taxes are lower abroad, are not included in this figure. Jul-16 Page 38
39 Energy Demand Power Sector The primary energy requirement for the power sector varies, with the import/export balance and with the production of renewable power. This figure excludes the primary energy demand caused by power imports. Jul-16 Page 39
40 CO2 Emissions July 2016 This figure shows the daily CO2 emission of each of the four demand sectors. This figure does not take into account the energy demand for shipping, aviation and feedstock. During summer, CO2 emissions from lower temperature heat are very low. (1 kton CO2 is equal to the average daily CO2 emission of households, each using 1500 m3 gas and 3500 kwh electricity annually. Jul-16 Page 40
41 CO2 emissions Low Temperature Heat The CO2 emissions from Low Temperature Heat, mainly buildings and green houses, vary with ambient air temperature and the fraction of renewable energy which is used, mainly biomass and heat pumps. This figure excludes the CO2 emissions due to the production of electricity used in low temperature heating. Jul-16 Page 41
42 CO2 emissions High Temperature Heat CO2 emissions from High Temperature Heat, mainly industry, vary mainly with the economic activity in the Netherlands. Jul-16 Page 42
43 CO2 emissions Transportation CO2 emissions from Transportation (excluding international shipping and aviation, which are not accounted for in the national CO2 emissions) vary with the economic activity in the Netherlands. Fuel bought abroad, e.g. because of lower prices, is not included in this figure as well. Jul-16 Page 43
44 CO2 emissions Power Sector CO2 emissions from the power sector vary with the amount of coal used for power generation, the amount of renewable power produced, and the level of power imports. Jul-16 Page 44
45 SELECTED HOURLY ENERGY DATA Jul-16 Page 45
46 Gas Supplies July 2016 The send-out of the gas storages is mainly related to ambient temperatures, but shows as well a week-weekend pattern. In July the storages were being filled, which is represented by negative values. Gas supplies include Dutch consumption and exports. Jul-16 Page 46
47 Gas Demand Including Gas-to-Power July 2016 Domestic gas demand in July peaked at 35 GW. In this graph, the term industry is defined as direct connections to the Gasunie grid. The term distribution includes industries and households connected to the distribution grids. Jul-16 Page 47
48 Gas Imports & Exports July 2016 In July 2016, gas exports were about 23 TWh, while gas imports were 35 TWh and net gas imports to the Netherlands have been at a record level. Jul-16 Page 48
49 Power Imports & Exports July 2016 In July 2016 power imports were 2.2TWh, while power exports were (just) 0.2 TWh. Jul-16 Page 49
50 Wind Power July 2016 July 2016 was characterized by a low and volatile wind availability; the average utilization rate of the wind turbines was 18%. Jul-16 Page 50
51 Solar PV Power July 2016 July was less sunny than May. The utilization rate of more than 1500 MW of solar PV installed was 16%. Jul-16 Page 51
52 The following set of slides presents for each month in 2016 the hourly contributions of various energy sources to total power consumption in The Netherlands. Jul-16 Page 52
53 Power Generation January 2016 In the week of July, gas-fired power generation peaked, due to low wind availability and net exports that occurred simultaneously. Jul-16 Page 53
54 Power Generation February 2016 In the second half of July, gas-fired power generation peaked, due to low wind availability and low imports. Jul-16 Page 54
55 Power Generation March 2016 Around Eastern, the demand for power was relatively low and there was a high availability of wind, both domestic and imported. Hence, significant domestic gas and coal-fired power production had to be taken out. Jul-16 Page 55
56 Power Generation April 2016 April 2016 was characterized by high imports and a volatile wind availability. Hence, fossil fuel generation varied significantly during the month. Jul-16 Page 56
57 Power Generation May 2016 May 2016 was characterized by high imports and a volatile wind availability. Hence, fossil fuel generation varied significantly during the month. Jul-16 Page 57
58 Power Generation June 2016 June 2016 was characterized by high power imports, outages of the nuclear and coalfired power plants and low wind availability. Jul-16 Page 58
59 Power Generation July 2016 July 2016 was characterized by high power imports and low wind availability. Jul-16 Page 59
60 The following set of slides presents for each week in 2016 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-pv to the total power consumption in The Netherlands. Jul-16 Page 60
61 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 61
62 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 62
63 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 63
64 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 64
65 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 65
66 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 66
67 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 67
68 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 68
69 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 69
70 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 70
71 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 71
72 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 72
73 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 73
74 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 74
75 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 75
76 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 76
77 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 77
78 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 78
79 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 79
80 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 80
81 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 81
82 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 82
83 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 83
84 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 84
85 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 85
86 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 86
87 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 87
88 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 88
89 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 89
90 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Jul-16 Page 90
91 MISCELLANEOUS Jul-16 Page 91
92 Effective Temperature July 2016 In July 2016, the average daily effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) was only 12.7 o C, significantly higher than in July 2015 (average 14.5 o C). Jul-16 Page 92
93 Import/export balances of gas and power This curve represents the long term monthly net import/export balances of natural gas and power since January Negative numbers express net exports. Positive numbers net imports. Since 2015, the Groningen gas production has decreased significantly. Jul-16 Page 93
94 Fuel Specific CO2 Emissions g/kwh Sources: CE-Delft, own analyses Fuels Power Generation Characteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation. Jul-16 Page 94
95 Epilogue This presentation is based on numerous sources on energy demand, supply and production in The Netherlands. Unfortunately, these sources do not cover the entire Dutch energy system, nor do these sources provide the insights needed for this presentation. Thus, various approximations and scaling factors were derived and used. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of Applied Sciences in Groningen and various consulted energy experts for there feedback on the methods used. Currently, the aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS) and it is believed that the this presentation gives a fair presentation of the complex reality of the Dutch energy system. Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable. Jul-16 Page 95
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