World Biofuels Outlook. Kingsman s Monthly Update 6 th January 2014
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1 World Biofuels Outlook Kingsman s Monthly Update 6 th January 2014
2 ETHANOL 2
3 CS Brazil: season coming to an end mln mt cane CS Brazil - Total Cane Processed Total cane crushed until December 16 th is very close to final and amounted to mln mt, the largest amount ever crushed /10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 0 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb A max 6-8 million mt extra cane crushed after that date Ethanol mix increased from 50.45% last season to 54.55% this season. 3
4 Ethanol production was strong this season 12.0 bln litres CS Brazil: Anhydrous Ethanol Prodn bln litres 20 CS Brazil - Total Hydrous Ethanol Prodn / /11 11/12 12/13 13/ Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 09/ /11 11/12 12/ /14 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Total ethanol production until mid-december reached 25 billion liters, up 19% year-on-year. From this total, 10.9 billion were anhydrous and 14.1 billion were hydrous, a sharp increase of 24% and 15% y-o-y, respectively. 4
5 Ethanol stocks tight for the intercrop period mln litres 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Apr May Source: MAPA CS Brazil - Hydrous stocks Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar mln liters 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Apr Source: MAPA May Jun CS Brazil - Anhydrous stocks Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Hydrous stocks by mid-december reached 4.3 billion liters, up 8.5% year-on-year, while anhydrous reached a record for the period at 3.55 billion liters, up 11.7% y- o-y. Despite the increase, stocks are tight for the intercrop period. During Q1, hydrous sales should reach 3 billion liters while anhydrous should reach roughly 2.3 billion liters. 5
6 The ethanol parity USc/lb Brazilian hydrous vs sugar prices NY sugar Hydrous (USc/lb sugar equiv.) Two gasoline price increases in 2013 helped hydrous prices to stay above world sugar at the start and end of the season But at the peak of the crop, sugar prices held above hydrous telling producers to make sugar instead of ethanol Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 With cane availability expected above 600 mln mt for 2014/15, a new sugar surplus on the horizon coupled with growing FFV fleet could mean a new increase in the ethanol mix in 2014.
7 Meanwhile, in the NNE crushing is in full speed NNE Brazil Cumulative Cane Processed to mid December mln tonnes /10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Yields were affected by the severe drought that hit the region last year while rains in the beginning of the season have hampered the crush until mid November End Jul End Aug End Sep End Oct End Nov As a result, total cane crushed until mid-december dropped by nearly 10% from last season to 31.3 million mt. Despite the drop in cane crush, ethanol production until mid-december increased by 9% to 1.32 billion litres.
8 Ethanol exports dropped in 2013 mln liters Brazil Ethanol Exports per quarter Exports in the December were at the lowest level since the beginning of the crop in April at 96.4 mln litres. January-December exports amounted to 2.91 billion liters, a drop of 5% compared to Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: Secex/Kingsman Exports to the US declined y-o-y while exports to other countries, such as South Korea and Europe increased supporting the exports and the final result was close to previous year s figure. 8
9 In Europe, T2 ethanol prices continued their downward trend /cu m T2 ethanol prices FOB Rdam T2 FOB Rotterdam was assessed at /cu m on Dec 31 st, a drop of 27.75/cu m compared to the end of the previous month and 23.9% down from the beginning of the year Weak demand due to seasonal factors and ample supply pushed prices down. 450 As a result of this drop, the crush margin remained into negative territory being assessed at a negative 63.33/mt on Dec 31 st. 9
10 Update on two key European markets '000 mt German ethanol consumption '000 cu m E10 demand % in gasoline 95 (RHS) France: E10 consumption 35% 30% % 20% % % Source: BAFA Source: SNPAA Ethanol consumption in Germany from January to October 2013 reached 1,001,660 mt, a drop of 4.8% compared to the same period a year earlier. Over the same period, E10 sales in France totaled about 2,276,794 cu m, an increase of 19.4% on the year. 10
11 In the US, the ethanol price rally took a break $/gal US ethanol prices FOB CHI FOB New York 1.40 May-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 After reaching $3.50/gal at the beginning of December, FOB New York values plummeted to $2.35/gal at the end of the month as tightness of spot supply eased. 11
12 As output broke new records '000 bbls/day US Weekly Ethanol Production Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Source: EIA Ethanol production soared in December to reach its highest levels in two years amid strong crush margins. Current output rates are 13% up year-on-year. 12
13 Providing some relief to tight spot supply 23 million barrels US Weekly Ethanol Stocks Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Source: EIA Stocks increased to the highest in 14 weeks at 15,660 million barrels during the week ending December 20 th. Improving logistics conditions helped output to flow from the plants to the market. However, stocks as of December 27 th are still 23% lower year-on-year. 13
14 India is considering to increase the ethanol mandate The government is thinking about increasing the ethanol blending rate to 10% from 5% in cane growing areas, but it seems to be facing various challenges. Looking at the tenders that occurred during the year, it does not seem feasible the blending mandate will be fulfilled. For 2014, another challenge could be competition from other uses, in particular beverages. It seems that in election years like in 2014, alcoholic beverage production from molasses tends to peak and this may divert molasses away from fuel ethanol. 14
15 BIODIESEL 15
16 European biodiesel finishing lower in December $/mt 1'350 1'300 1'250 1'200 1'150 1'100 1'050 1' Biodiesel flat prices RME FOB ARA Fame 0 PME CIF ARA Biodiesel premiums in Northwest Europe have plummeted in very thin trading and a marked lack of bids Vegetable oil prices plummeted after the USDA report showed that the world oilseed production for is forecast at million mt, up 2.9 million from last month. BOGO spread has reached in December -87 the lowest levels seen since 2006 on bearish agri outlook 16
17 In the US, prices tumbled to 3 year lows 5.30 $/gal SME FOB US 4.50 west Gulf Coast 3.70 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 A combination of weak demand and strong supply pushed both, west and Gulf Coast values to the lowest since Biodiesel (D4) RINs generation and the corresponding production until November 2013 had already surpassed the minimum mandate of 1.28 billion gallons by 286 million gallons. 17
18 US biodiesel feedstocks mln lbs 7'000 Feedstock inputs to US biodiesel production US October biodiesel output edged up 5 million gallons month on month to 132 million gallons 6'000 Tallow Poulty 5'000 Soybean Oil 4'000 Palm Oil Corn Oil 3'000 Canola Oil 2'000 1' * Source: EIA *till Oct 2013 Soybean oil used for US biodiesel production in October 2013 increased to its highest since 2011 at 551 million lb. More competitive soybean oil prices have boosted its use for biodiesel production. The volume of palm oil used to produce biodiesel in US in January- October was 476 million lb, just 2% less than canola oil. 18
19 Argentina will gradually raise the biodiesel mandate '000 mt 600 q1 500 q2 q3 400 q Argentinian Exports Starting January 1, 2014, the biodiesel mandate will be increased to 9% from 7% and to 10% on February 1. Domestic biodiesel consumption will increase by 480,000 mt to 1.38 million mt in source : CARBIO US is representing now 33% of the Argentine exports while Europe is still the main destination with 47% of the volumes during the Jan-Nov 2013 period. 19
20 Indonesia is tendering to cover the increased biodiesel mandate 30% '000 mt Indonesian CPO and PME export tax Indonesian state-owned oil and gas company Pertamina has re-terdered for 5.4 billion litres of biodiesel. 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% CPO export tax PME export tax Pertamina has already covered 1.2 billion litres of the forecast 6.6 billion litre requirement for its blending in 2014 and 2015 via its first tender. The US EIA forecasts Indonesian biodiesel production will increase by 27% in 2014 to 80,000 b/d from 63,000 b/d in
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