IDTechEx Ltd. Ltd-v3153/ Publisher Sample

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1 IDTechEx Ltd Ltd-v3153/ Publisher Sample Phone: (US) or or (Int'l) Hours: Monday - Thursday: 5:30am - 6:30pm EST Fridays: 5:30am - 5:30pm EST customerservice@marketresearch.com MarketResearch.com

2 foundering. As of December 2013, the United States was the market segment leader, with over 95,500 plug-in hybrids delivered, followed by Japan with over 25,000 units, and the Netherlands with more than 24,500 units sold through December Toyota plans to introduce hybrid versions of all of its vehicles by the 2020s and now several competitors are following that strategy, Ford being the most successful in gaining market share, overtaking GM in Table 1.4 Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars , rounded Hybrids 43.0 Pure EV 2.3 Total 45.3 Full forecasts available in the report Source IDTechEx The pure EVs are seen taking off more slowly because, beyond luxury models, their success is heavily dependent on potential pollution laws, improvements in battery life and cost and the range they provide, the resale price and availability of more versions that are fully crash tested and suitable for major highways, huge deployment of fast charging points and more versions that are very low cost. These forecasts presume that many countries will install on-street recharging points following a good start in Denmark and a few other places. They are essential if plug in hybrids are to become compelling proposition, not just pure electric cars. For on road electric cars, we are in the decade of the hybrid electric vehicle. Indeed, in 2013, the number of pure electric on road cars sold globally was less than half of the number of golf cars MicroEVs/quadricycles etc This report is not about on-road car-like vehicles that are not homologated as cars and do not even have to be crash tested. These are typically 3-wheeled in East Asia, where most of them are purchased as an entry level product for those upgrading from e-bikes to enclosed vehicles and they are used as taxis. The market for these will be as follows and most of it will be in developing nations, notably the Philippines, where over 3 million taxis need replacing due to chronic local pollution, China and India. Premium products such as the Renault Twizy (a sort of enclosed quadbike), have little potential and most governments in advanced nations deter micro EVs to protect safety and their motor industries. 5

3 Electric motors It might be hoped that electric motors for one type of application may be standardised and optimal in a single basic form. However, the opposite is true. One of the greatest challenges in designing electric vehicles lies in designing the electric traction motors because the needs differ depending on whether they are hybrid or pure electric, the cost target, the precise design of vehicle and many other factors. Minimizing electrical and magnetic losses is critical to deliver maximum range and fuel efficiency to consumers. At the same time, engineers need to consider structural, thermal and electromagnetic issues that play a crucial role in vehicle performance, reliability and cost. The basic design of the synchronous permanent magnet and switched reluctance electric motor has not changed since it was invented almost two centuries ago. Brushed traction motors (with commutator) are rapidly losing market share even in simple electric bicycles because of poor reliability, frequent maintenance, emitting interference and other shortcomings. The synchronous permanent magnet and switched reluctance motors have changed little in basic principles over 200 years. The synchronous permanent magnet motor tends to be either Permanent Magnet AC PMAC with sinusoidal waveform or the misleadingly named Brushless DC BLDC with trapezoidal waveform. The basic design of the asynchronous (AC induction) motor has changed little since it first appeared just over 100 years ago: it is essentially a rotating transformer needing no permanent magnets. The traditional limitations of each type have been reduced or eliminated in some designs. They include the following. Table 1.10 Examples of traditional limitations and market trends by type of basic design of traction motor Those used mainly on large vehicles shown in green. Those on smaller vehicles and high performance vehicles and in-wheel shown red. Synchronous Permanent Magnet Current favorite Demagnetisation at high temperature Price hikes of rare earths in magnets Dominant in cars down to smaller vehicles and for inwheel and corner unit (near wheel) motor assemblies and traction motors integrated into transmission Synchronous Switched Reluctance Acoustic noise Control electronics needs twice the number of power components Fine tolerances = cost, reliability issues Gaining market share but little used as yet Asynchronous Next most popular Larger Less efficient Still subject to copper prices Has been slowly gaining market share in large or heavy duty vehicles down to cars but overall market split may stabilise for next five years as most of the new EVs reaching a tipping point in sales will need synchronous motors. After that, maybe asynchronous gains more market share. Depends partly on neodymium price and availability. Source IDTechEx Now we are seeing rapid, radical change in traction motor design in cars with motors integral in transmission or wheels and motors including controls and any gearing. Solutions often take the form of something between the three main options, of which switched reluctance motors are the least popular, only recently having become viable with improved, more affordable control electronics and better mechanical design. An example of a fairly popular intermediate type of traction motor is the reluctance-assisted permanent magnet motor which uses less magnet. The 15

4 All these vehicles fell between two stools, they were unsafe on major highways and fast enough to be dangerous on sidewalks and in buildings. Only in the 1980s was it realised that a slower, more stable variant with a smaller footprint and higher seat, constituted a useful vehicle for the disabled with huge potential. Indeed, one million were sold in only a few years and they remains recessionproof growth industry. But even then the challenge of making an acceptable, affordable, safe, mainstream road EV remained unsolved. Primarily, these were unsuccessful because of range and later, with crowded roads, safety. Aptera A recent example of failed positioning of an on-road electric car is the Aptera which was perceived as dangerous on the road yet illegal on the sidewalk. The company failed in Fig. 3.4 Aptera Source Aptera 40

5 Year Event Picture 2013 Land Rover series hybrid with 30 miles pure electric range UK 2013 Kia Rio hybrid Korea 2013 Bright Automotive SUV USA 2013 New hybrids from China, Porsche, Ford, Toyota and many others 2014 Nissan and many others 2014 Lotus Elite 2014 BMW By the end of 2014 BMW will offer one pure electric car and four different plug-in hybrid models. A good reflection of hybrids relative market potential vs pure electric mainstream cars. After working through inventory of cars in Finland, the Wanxiangcontrolled Fisker will begin producing both hybrid and V8-powered versions of the Karma at VL Automotive's facilities in Auburn Hills, Michigan Porsche Macan SUV 2015 Porsche Macan SUV will be offered with plug-in hybrid drive, as well as diesel and gasoline engines. Source IDTechEx Subaru's Viziv 2 Concept In 2014, Subaru revealed its Viziv 2 Concept at the Geneva Motor Show. Taking its name from an amalgamation of the words "Vision for Innovation," it is intended to combine eco-friendliness with spirited performance. Fig. 4.5 Subaru's Viziv 2 Concept Source Subaru 58

6 Fig. 5.4 Drayson pure electric racing car in the UK pioneers many new technologies including continuous charging and structural batteries Source Drayson Racing Technologies 5.7. Innovative charging Drayson Racing Technologies and HaloIPT have teamed up to develop a new on-the-go charging system for electric cars. HaloIPT had previously announced that they were working on the technology and have now brought Drayson Racing Technologies into the project. The technology will be tested on race cars with the technology built into the track to wirelessly provide power so drivers don t have to stop to charge the vehicle. This copes with misalignment over the transmitter pads, which is a common problem with on-the-go charging. Primarily developed by HaloIPT (IPT standing for inductive power transfer), the technology got its start from UniServices a University of Auckland commercial subsidiary in New Zealand. In EVs best practice often comes from all over the world and in the more unusual types of vehicle. See Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure