How YOU can take advantage of a secret loophole in the world s largest betting exchange. A Special Publication from The Better Bettor By John Lee

Transcription

1 How YOU can take advantage of a secret loophole in the world s largest betting exchange. A Special Publication from The Better Bettor By John Lee ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form whatsoever, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any informational storage or retrieval system without the expressed written, dated and signed permission from the author. DISCLAIMER AND/OR LEGAL NOTICES: The information presented herein represents the view of the author as of the date of publication. The report is for informational purposes only. While every attempt has been made to verify the information provided in this report, neither the author nor his affiliates/partners assume any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions or for any damages related to use or misuse of the information provided in the report.

2 INTRODUCTION... Congratulations on downloading this guide. You're going to love it and if you put into action everything you learn you'll be able to make anything from a few pounds a day to a comfortable full time income. How good will it feel to be able to go and tell your boss what to do with his job? I know more than one person who uses just this one method to make a comfortable full time income so I know it is possible. I'm going to start with the most important tip you'll read in the entire guide and it's this: You MUST take action on what you're about to learn. If you just read this guide and put it aside you'll have forgotten all about it in a couple of days and it'll just collect dust on your hard drive. So just keep focused on the difference an extra 1000 a week is going to make in your life and get stuck in. I'm going to start this guide with an overview of what we'll be doing, then I'll tell you the theory behind it. Then I'm going to walk you through the system, one step at a time, explaining everything as we go. Finally I'll add a check list so you won't be able to forget anything as you apply the system in real time. Let s get going...

3 THE OVERVIEW... In this system we're going to be laying the draw in a soccer match BEFORE the kick off and then trading out of the bet after the first goal, to guarantee ourselves a profit, no matter what the final score. If the previous paragraph seems like a foreign language, don't worry. You're soon going to know exactly how this works. Once you read through this guide a couple of times and understand the principals you'll realise that it's so easy, a ten year old could do it. This is NOT gambling, and we're not blindly betting. We're simply going to be trading in the same way as they do on the Stock Exchange, buying a position and then selling it a little later for a guaranteed profit. First of all, let s look into the reasons why this works...

4 THE THEORY... First things first. You need to know about betting exchanges and Betfair in particular as they are the biggest and best of the exchanges. If you're already familiar with Betfair and betting exchanges you can skip this and move on to the next part. If you're not, then keep reading... First of all here's how Betfair describes itself: What is Betfair? The Betfair group of companies ('Betfair') offers a global portfolio of gambling products and services. This includes the world's leading betting exchange (a concept pioneered by Betfair), which is provided in the UK. Betfair's other betting platforms include a bookmaking operation provided from Malta and a second betting exchange in Australia. Separately Betfair's established gaming products include Betfair Poker, Betfair Casino and a number of exchange-enabled games. All of these are offered from Malta. Betfair is a licensed gambling operator in the UK, Australia, Malta, Italy, Austria and Germany. Why Betfair? Betfair offers you unprecedented choice, value and control. * You can bet that an outcome will happen (back) or that it won't happen (lay). * You can choose the odds at which you want to play. * You can bet whilst the game is in play.

5 * You can play on a range of products and innovative games. What is different about betting on Betfair? Back or lay When you "back" a selection (be it an individual, a team, horse, dog or other), you are betting that it will win. This is just like betting with a conventional bookmaker. When you "lay" it, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in a market on which team is going to win the Premiership and you lay Man Utd, then if they win you pay out. This is what bookmakers traditionally do. If you are a UK registered customer you are betting through the UK exchange, which means that your bets are being matched by other Betfair customers. In this case, although Betfair knows who is on each side of every bet matched, you never know who you are betting against, as it may be a number of people matching your one bet. If you are registered with Betfair from outside the UK you are betting directly against Betfair rather than other Betfair customers, but in all cases your privacy and the confidentiality of your bets is maintained by Betfair's secure site. Choose your odds If you want better odds than are currently available, you can place an order for a better price, but bear in mind that if your price is unrealistic your bet is unlikely to be accepted. Note that the odds available often improve nearer to the 'off' (or when the event starts) as interest and betting activity in the markets increase.

6 So... To try and put that more simply... Until quite recently the only way we could bet on a horse race or the outcome of a football match was to go into a bookmakers and place a bet on the horse or team we think is going to win. With the advent of betting exchanges we're able to bet with other members of the public. The betting exchange matches up our bet without us ever knowing who we are betting with so the system is totally anonymous. The fact that we're able to do this means that we can bet on either outcome of an event. Something that only the bookies have been able to do previously. An example of this is that if you think that Horse A is going to win the 2:30 at Cheltenham and I think it doesn't stand a chance, you would back Horse A to win and I would lay Horse A. You may decide to back the horse at 2 to 1 (3.00 on Betfair) so you put 25 on it and knowing that if it loses you lose your 25 but if it wins you'll win 50 and also get back your 25 stake, 75 in all. To lay Horse A for 25 so I can match your bet, I need to have at least 50 in my account as this will be my liability. If as I suspect, Horse A fails to win the race I'll be 25 up but if it does happen to win I'll lose 50. Now you may think that sounds like a bad deal as I stand to lose more than I can make, but you have to remember that I have every other horse in the race running for me, so if Horse A is running in a ten horse race I will lose 50 if it wins but I'll win 25 if any of the other nine horses win! So now you know how to lay an outcome you must realise that this opens a whole new world of opportunities to you.

7 Bookmakers have traditionally been the ones laying the horses while we went into the betting shop and backed our choices and I know you've never seen a poor bookie! This should be making you excited as the possibilities are endless. Betting exchanges even give us an advantage over bookmakers as the bookies are obliged to offer odds on every horse in a race but we can pick and choose our lays. You may say that bookies have an advantage as they're able to set the odds they're willing to bet at, but that too is something you can do on a betting exchange, and you'll notice that the odds change constantly as people judge the strength of the market. Another opportunity with betting exchanges is that you're able to trade bets. You can for instance put 25 on a horse to win at 9AM for a price of 4.00 and then find later in the day that the price had shortened to You can now lay the same horse for 50 and regardless of the outcome of the race you'll win 25. If the horse wins your back bet will win 75 but you'll lose 50 on your lay bet. Outcome is 25 up. If the horse loses your back bet will put you down by 25 but your lay bet will win you 50. Outcome is again 25 up. In our system we're going to make a similar trade on a soccer match. Laying the draw and then trading out by backing the draw at a greater price after a goal has been scored, guaranteeing us a profit. More of that as we move on... This relies on us being able to do something else that traditional bookmakers don't allow us to do. Betting in-play, which means we're able to bet on the outcome of events even while they're going on. OK... I've gone on a bit about horses here but we're going to be betting on soccer matches so how does that work?

8 Well, as far as Betfair are concerned, there are three possible outcomes with a football match. Either, the home team wins, the away team wins or the match is a draw. Betfair treats a score draw the same as a nil nil draw but this is a massive loophole. Hardly anyone realises but that one fact is what will allow us to make our profit! Only 22% of games finish in a draw so if we were able to lay the draw for 25 at odds of 4.00 (not unrealistic) in a hundred matches we should win 78 times giving us 1950 but we'd lose 22 times, losing 75 each time, or Our 1950 winnings minus our 1650 losses gives us a nice profit of 300. Not bad you may think, a profit is a profit after all, but keep reading. We can do a lot better than that! Another interesting statistic is that the number of games world wide, which finish in a nil nil draw is only 7%. Another way of looking at this, is that in 93% of matches at least one goal is scored. In UK matches this figure increases to 95% which is even better for us! So... Here's what we do... We use our 25 to lay the draw at odds of around 4.00 or less, then we wait for a goal to be scored which invariably moves the odds upwards. Then we trade out of our bet by backing the draw to give us a guaranteed win regardless of the outcome. (I personally never lay at prices greater than It may be tempting to take a bigger price when the teams are wildly unmatched, but remember we're not gambling here, we're trading, so stick to the plan and remain disciplined). It's not unusual after the first goal for the odds to double, and if that were to happen with our example above we could back

9 the draw for at 8.00 which would give us a guaranteed profit of If the match finished as a draw our lay bet would lose 75 and our back bet would win 87.5, resulting in a profit. If the match didn't finish as a draw our lay bet would win us 25 but our back bet would lose, resulting again in a profit. If you're thinking that there's still only a 20% chance of a draw so you're tempted to adjust your bets to only break even in the event of a draw and give a little extra profit when one team wins, think about this: In that instance you would back the draw for at 8.00 which would give the following outcomes: If the match were a draw your lay bet would lose 75 and your back bet would win 74.97, resulting in a 0.03 loss. If the match didn't finish as a draw your lay bet would win you 25 but your back bet would lose, resulting this time in a profit. Not as much difference as you'd imagine, eh? Doing it that way in a 100 matches will give you a profit 78% of the time giving you but going for the even split gives you for every one of the 100 matches giving you 1250 profit. So stick with the plan and go for the even split. (I'll show you later how we work out how much to bet). Always remember we're trading, not gambling. We have a plan and we stick to it no matter how tempting it may be to let our lay bet run once a goal has been scored. We must trade out. You'll be surprised how often an equaliser is scored in the last

10 minute which will leave you out of pocket if you're not disciplined. The only way to profit long term is to be disciplined and stick with the plan!

11 STEP BY STEP... Here's a step by step guide to get you started. I ll try and explain why we re doing what we re doing, as we go, but once you know what you re doing you ll just be able to use the check list I ve provided at the end of the guide. Open an account at Betfair. If you use this link you'll get a 25 FREE bet to start you off! Once you've opened an account you can log in at and click on the Football link.

12 In the menu that appears on the left of the page you need to click on Coupons at the top of the list. Now you need to click on the in-play coupon link for the day of the week you have logged in on. In the example above which was on a Sunday for instance you'll need to click on Sunday In-Play Coupon. These are arranged alphabetically so should be easy enough to find.

13 You'll then be presented with a screen like this: The middle two columns are the ones we're interested in as they are the back (blue) and lay (pink) prices for the draws. You'll notice that the matches nearest the top have a tick in a green box next to them. This is because they are already inplay but if you look further down you'll find matches that are yet to start. We can select some eligible games here by finding the ones we can lay for a price of 4.20 or under. The best matches to choose are those with a high probability of a home win. Look for matches where you could back the "home win" for odds of 2.00 or less. You can do more research at a football stats site such as or to find matches which you think will end in a home win.

14 We also need to check the liquidity of the market as we want to be sure we're going to be able to trade out of our lay bet when a goal is scored. The liquidity of an event is basically the amount of money that is being wagered on it. We need to make sure there is enough liquidity so that when the time comes for us to trade out of the bet we know there are going to be plenty of people taking the opposing view to us. This way we'll be sure to get our back bet matched. We need to make sure there's been at least 10,000 matched on the game we choose. If you click on the team names, which I've highlighted with an arrow above, you'll see the full details of the match and be able to see the total amount matched. Not a problem in this instance as you'll see that with five hours until kick off there is already 32,200 matched on the game.

15 Place your 25 free bet! Work out your liability (subtract 1.0 from your odds and multiply the result by your stake). So... If we're laying 25 at odds of 3.9 our liability is Calculate your cash out figure by adding your stake to your liability. ( liability plus our 25 stake = 97.50) Write down your cash out figure so when a goal is scored you'll have everything ready to trade out. Log on to Click on Live Now.

16 Click on Choose League. Select the league or leagues your matches are in and click Submit.

17 Deselect any matches you're not interested in by clicking the red crosses. Make sure the sound is selected on, on the site as well as on your computer! Sit back and relax! You'll hear the audible warning as soon as a goal is scored or a penalty is given and when you check Betfair you'll find the market is suspended. Very soon you'll see the new market re-form and you'll need to check what price is available to back the draw. We need to back the draw at a greater price than we laid it for to guarantee a profit. OK... Here's the important bit... To work out how much we need to back the draw for we take the amount we laid initially, added to the liability and then divide the sum by the new back odds. Don't worry... It's easier than it sounds!

18 Here's an example: We started out by laying the draw for 25 at 3.9 which makes our liability ( )x25 We add our initial 25 stake to our liability of which gives us (We actually did this earlier, as soon as we laid the draw, and should've noted down the result so we'd be ready as soon as we saw the new odds). When the market is re-formed after the first goal is scored we see that the price to back the draw is now 5.5 So... We divide by 5.5 which gives us rounded up to the nearest penny. Now we simply back the draw for at the new odds of 5.5 and we're guaranteed a profit no matter what the outcome. If the match finished as a draw your lay bet would lose and your back bet would win 79.79, resulting in a 7.29 profit. If the match didn't finish as a draw your lay bet would win you 25 but your back bet would lose, resulting this time in a 7.27 profit. You may think it seems like a lot of trouble for 7.27 but that's a very healthy 10% profit on your initial liability of and if you keep reinvesting your profits you'll be surprised how quickly your stakes will increase and you'll be making hundreds of pounds. This brings us quite neatly to the subject of how much to stake. I would suggest that you only risk 20% of your bank on each game but as your bank increases keep investing your profits until you're making as much as you're happy with. Then anything you win over that level you can withdraw and do with what you like!

19 What to do when things go wrong. Inevitably there will be times when the game doesn't go the way we'd hope but even then we can limit our losses to maintain our bank. As the game progresses, and if there are no goals, the odds at which you'll be able to back the draw will gradually decrease until they're at 1.01 and you have no hope of salvaging anything from the trade. If the game looks like ending without any goals my suggestion would be to trade your way out of the bet when the odds reduce to This way you will still make a loss but it will be reduced to less than half what it would've been. Using the same figures above as an example we would again take the figure of ( ) that we noted down earlier and divide this by the available back odds in this case. This gives us a figure of which we use to back the draw. This divides our losses between the two outcomes and would give us a loss of only If the match stayed a draw your lay bet would lose but your back bet would win 48.75, resulting in a loss of If there was a last minute goal your lay bet would win you 25 but your back bet would lose, resulting again in a loss of Much better I think you'll agree than the you could otherwise have lost. If you do make a loss don't panic and chase your losses by increasing your stakes. You WILL inevitably lose now and again, but far less often than your winning days, so just put it down to experience and learn from it if you can.

20 The other thing that can potentially cause problems is if the underdogs score the first goal. This can sometimes cause barely any change in the odds at all, as the market expects the stronger team to equalise and sometimes the odds will even reduce, however I usually just ride it out as I am, after all, in a winning position and you'd be surprised how often the underdogs go on to win. When you start using this technique I suggest you start with small stakes, trading one match at a time, until you're familiar with the routine. As your confidence and your bank increases, you can increase your stakes as well as the number of games you're simultaneously trading. OK... So now you have everything you need to make a big change in your life but it's over to you now. I can't do any more. The only one who can make it happen is YOU! So TAKE ACTION and the best of luck.

21 CHECK LIST... Use this link to open an account at Betfair and get your 25 FREE bet: Log in to Click on the Football link. Click on Coupons at the top of the list. Click on ****day In-Play Coupon. Select eligible games. (Lay price of 4.50 or under home win odds of 2.00 or less) Do more research if required: Check liquidity. ( 10,000 plus) Place your 25 free bet! Work out your liability. (Odds minus one x stake) Work out your cash out figure (liability + stake) and WRITE IT DOWN. Log on to Click on Live Now. Click on Choose League. Select your matches league and click Submit. Deselect matches you're not interested in. MAKE SURE SOUND IS SWITCHED ON! Sit back and relax! Check prices after audible warning. Divide your cash out figure (the number you wrote down) by the available odds. Back the draw by the amount you calculated. Relax and count your winnings!... or... If odds drop to 2.00 trade out of bet to reduce your losses.