Maritime Connectivity and Trade
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1 Maritime Connectivity and Trade Marco Fugazza UNCTAD G-NEXID Workshop, 28 March 2014, Geneva
2 Plan of the Presentation Motivation The Dataset Stylized Facts Some Empirical Results Implications 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 2
3 Motivation Maritime transport is at the core of international trade in merchandises: almost 80% of volume of goods exchanged in the world are transported via sea Containerizable transport services, in particular, are key for trade in manufactured goods and global value chains Without access to regular liner shipping services that make use of standardized sea-containers, countries cannot competitively participate in globalized production 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 3
4 Motivation Distribution of World Trade Developed-Developing Countries 2011 North-North North-South South-North South-South Percent South South Trade Intra-Regional with East Asia Other South South East Asia Latin America percent over total trade South Asia Sub Saharan Africa Transition Ec. W.Asia & N.Africa And globalized production has played an important role in South-South trade expansion 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 4
5 Motivation Despite the importance of trade costs as drivers of the geographical pattern of economic activity, global value chains, and of exchanges of merchandise goods between countries, most contributions to their understanding remain piecemeal Some worldwide estimates of transport costs have been recently published by the WB ( Trade Costs in the Developing World: ) 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 5
6 Motivation Their estimates distinguish between trade in manufactured goods and trade in agricultural products In both cases, they find that the absolute levels of trade costs are significant in ad valorem equivalent terms: at least 100% in manufactured goods and in excess of 200% for agriculture Estimates are not based on any measure of bilateral maritime connectivity: e.g. no information about the existence of a direct connection 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 6
7 The Dataset UNCTAD s contribution: unique database reporting the shortest liner shipping routes between any pair of countries for a reference sample of 178 countries (33 landlocked) over the period The number of transhipments necessary to connect any country pair to allow for containerizable trade is retrieved The information on the existence or not of a direct connection is retrieved from the UNCTAD's Liner Shipping Connectivity Matrix (LSCM) connectivity index (LSCI) Liner shipping 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 7
8 Stylized Facts Over the whole period on average about 13 percent of country pairs are connected directly About 10 percent need one transhipment, About 49 percent two transhipments About 21 percent three transhipments About 72 percent of country pairs are connected with no more than two transhipments and more than 90 percent with no more than three transhipments 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 8
9 Stylized Facts Top and Bottom Ten Countries: average number of Transhipments Top 10 Mean Bottom 10 Mean GBR 0.73 TKM 3.20 FRA 0.79 NER 3.20 BEL 0.84 BLZ 3.23 DEU 0.87 SVK 3.31 NLD 0.88 HUN 3.31 ITA 0.92 BLR 3.32 ESP 0.93 NRU 3.42 CHN, HKG SAR 0.95 MLI 3.53 CHN 0.97 MDA 3.62 USA 0.98 ARM /11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 9
10 Stylized Facts Top ten connected countries (selected years): number of direct connections GBR 105 GBR 108 GBR 99 GBR 93 BEL 98 FRA 99 FRA 96 FRA 92 FRA 96 BEL 97 BEL 92 USA 91 DEU 93 DEU 96 HKG 89 NLD 88 USA 90 ESP 91 CHN 88 BEL 88 ESP 89 ITA 90 USA 86 CHN 86 NLD 89 USA 89 NLD 86 HKG 85 ITA 84 NLD 87 DEU 85 ESP 83 HKG 82 CHN 81 ITA 79 MYS 82 CHN 77 HKG 81 ESP 79 DEU 81 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 10
11 Stylized Facts Bottom ten connected countries (selected years): number of direct connections NRU 1 NRU 1 ALB 1 ALB 1 ALB 1 IRQ 2 MMR 2 QAT 2 MMR 2 QAT 2 IRQ 3 MMR 2 BHR 3 PLW 3 QAT 3 IRQ 3 IRQ 4 SOM 3 NRU 3 BRN 3 QAT 4 BHR 3 MDV 4 NRU 3 PLW 4 ALB 3 BGD 5 BGD 4 BLZ 4 KWT 4 PLW 5 MDV 4 BRN 4 SYC 4 SOM 6 PLW 5 KWT 4 BGD 4 BRN 6 SOM 6 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 11
12 Stylized Fatcs Direct Connections (share in total) South M North X South 46% 21% North 21% 12% Average # of direct connections: North: 35 South: 20 Direct Connections (share in group total) X South M North South 67% 33% North 62% 38% 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 12
13 Stylized Facts Direct Connections per destination (share in Country/Group total direct connections) 2012 AUS Africa America Asia CAN CHN EUR Europe IND JPN NZL Pacific USA AUS Africa America Asia CAN CHN EUR Europe IND JPN NZL Pacific USA AVG Number of direct connection per country 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 13
14 Stylized Facts Distance may not precisely reflect trade costs Number of Transhipments Obs. Fitted values Fitted values Graphs by Year 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 14
15 Empirical Investigation: Impact on Exports 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 15 ABW AFG AGO ALB ARE ARG ARM ATG AUS AUT AZE BDI BEL BEN BFA BGD BGR BHR BHS BLR BLZ BOL BRA BRB BRN BWA CAF CAN CHE CHL CHN CIV CMR COD COG COL COM CPV CRI CUB CYP CZE DEU DJI DMA DNK DOM DZA ECU EGY ESP EST ETH FIN FJI FRA GAB GBR GEO GHA GIN GMB GNB GNQ GRC GRD GTM GUY HKG HND HRV HTI HUN IDN IND IRL IRN IRQ ISL ISR ITA JAM JOR JPN KEN KGZ KHM KIR KNA KOR KWT LAO LBN LBR LBY LCA LKA LSO LTU LUX LVA MAR MDA MDG MDV MEX MHL MKD MLI MLT MMR MNG MOZ MRT MUS MWI MYS NAM NCL NER NGA NIC NLD NOR NRU NZL OMN PAK PAN PER PHL PLW PNG POL PRT PRY PYF QAT RUS RWA SAU SEN SGP SLB SLE SLV SOM STP SUR SVK SVN SWE SWZ SYC SYR TCD TGO THA TKM TON TTO TUN TUR TWN TZA UGA UKR URY USA VCT VEN VNM VUT WSM YEM ZAF ZMB ZWE Maritime Distance (Estimated)
16 Empirical Investigation: Impact on Exports 1500 CHN DEUUSA JPN FRAITA KORTWN GBRNLD BEL MYS MEX ESP SGP CHE IND CAN THA IRL HKG AUT ARE BRA CZE SWE ARG AUS IDNPOL ISR DNK EGY GHA CIV GRC DOM COL CMR DJI GTM CHL AGO BHS CRI ECU BENBFA FJI GAB BWA COG AZEBDI CYP DZA AFG ETH CUB CAF GIN BOL GNQ GRD ATG BRB FIN HUNPHL SAU ZAFTUR PRT MLT LKA LUX NGA KGZ MNG PAK RUS VNM PANPER VEN OMN JAMJOR KEN URY LBN NZL MAR TGOSYRTCD TTO NCL TZA IRN LSO PRYPYF SWZ ZWE MOZ LBY HRV MKD NAM UGA LAO MUS RWA MWI ZMB SEN HND VCT TKM NER MRT PNG LCA MDG KNA GMB SLB SVK VUT TUN BLR UKR SLE YEM DMA NOR SVN LBR HTI COM CPV GNB MLI WSM BRN KHMKIR BGRBHR STP MMR MDA TON NIC KWT SLV COD SYC MHL QAT ABW GUY BGD SUR MDV EST LTU PLW ALB GEO LVA IRQISL SOM BLZ ARMNRU Number of Transhipments 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 16
17 Empirical Investigation: Impact on Exports Econometric estimation (gravity model) Not being directly connected to the final destination is associated with exports values 45% to 55% lower on average Any additional transhipment is associated with exports values about 23% lower on average 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 17
18 Implications More needs to be done: Bilateral index of maritime connectivity (UNCTAD s work in progress) More precise estimates of bilateral trade costs Getting exporters connected is crucial: Beyond trade facilitation Broader approach to trade facilitation Connecting to a hub may be easier than working on bilateral direct connections Role for international cooperation? Preferential access to maritime hubs? How to attract shipping companies? 14/11/2013 Maritime Connectivity and Trade 18
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