FARM PROGRAM DECISION TOOL
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1 FARM PROGRAM DECISION TOOL Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson University of Illinois
2 DEVELOPMENT & OUTREACH COALITION University of Illinois Watts & Associates The Ohio State University Michigan State University Delaware State University University of Arkansas-Pine Bluff North Carolina A&T University Montana State University
3 DECISION ASSISTANCE Farm Bill Toolbox on farmdoc: Web-based decision tool, Agriculture Policy Analysis System (APAS):
4 FARM BILL DECISIONS One-time, irrevocable per FSA farm: Deadline (February 27) 1) Update payment yields 2) Retain or reallocate base acres Deadline (March 31) 3) Program Election decision: Agriculture Risk Coverage, County Option (ARC-CO) Agriculture Risk Coverage, Individual Farm Coverage Option (ARC-IC) Price Loss Coverage (PLC) (+ Supplemental Cover Option (SCO) in crop insurance)
5 STEP FOUR: COMPARE ARC-CO & PLC All producers on the farm; crop-by-crop decision ARC-CO: county revenue program PLC: deficiency payment when MYA is below reference price
6 OPERATIONAL COMPARISON ARC-CO PLC 5-year Olympic moving average MYA price (reference price plug) Reference price; does not change 5-year Olympic moving average county yields (70% of T-yield plug) Payment yield; does not change (after update) no yield coverage Coverage is from 86% down to 76% of county revenue (a 10% max) Coverage is from reference price down to the loan rate
7 PRICE COMPARISON Year Corn MYA Price 2009 $3.55 ($3.70) 2010 $5.18* 2011 $6.22* 2012 $ $4.45* 5-year Olympic Moving Avg. $5.28 (Reference price replaces any MYA that is below it) (*Used in the Olympic calculation, which drops highest and lowest) Crop Corn Note: Ref. Price $3.70/bu. 5-year Olympic average price used in ARC-CO benchmark; PLC triggers payment if MYA is below the reference price
8 Input State Illinois County Logan Crop Corn Type All PLC Payment Yield 134 What-If ARC-CO AND PLC Change the county yields and Market Year Average (MYA) prices for 2014 and 2018 to see payments under ARC- County and PLC. Payments are stated per base acre, as such they are multiplied by.85. If there are 100 base acres per farm, multiple the result below by 100. Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Input County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC PLC Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre Corn national loan rate equals: 1 Market year average price which is a national price for a marketing year. Five-Year Average 27 9 Corn reference price equals: 2 Equals Olympic average of five-previous yields. Olympic averages eliminate high and low observations. 3 Equals Olympic average of five-previous prices, price can not be less than reference price. 4 Equals benchmark yield x benchmark price x $1.95 Equals.85 x maximum of (ARC guarantee - county yield x MYA price) or (10% of benchmark yield x benchmark price). 6 Equals (reference price - higher of MYA price or national loan rate) x PLC payment yield x.85. $3.70
9 ARC-CO AND PLC 2014 Crop Year Price Comparison Commodity 5-year Olympic moving avg. price (ARC-CO) Reference price (PLC) Peanuts (ton) $557 $535 Rice (cwt) $14.10 $14.00 Barley (bu) $5.45 $4.95 Wheat (bu) $6.60 $5.50 Grain Sorghum (bu) $5.09 $3.95 Corn (bu) $5.28 $3.70 Soybeans (bu) $12.27 $8.40 Note: ARC-CO calculations are also dependent upon average county yields (actual and 5-year Olympic moving average)
10 MCLEAN COUNTY, ILLINOIS SOYBEANS Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Input County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC PLC Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre Soybeans national loan rate equals: 5.00 Five-Year Average 31 0 Soybeans reference price equals: 8.40 Note: USDA price forecasts do NOT fall below reference price ($8.40) in any of crop years 2014 through 2018
11 PRICE COMPARISON: SOYBEANS $12.00 $11.50 $11.00 $10.50 CBO USDA Reference Price Forecasts ($ per bushel) $10.00 $9.50 $9.00 $8.50 $8.00 $7.50 $
12 KOSSUTH COUNTY, IOWA CORN Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Input County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC PLC Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre Corn national loan rate equals: 1.95 Five-Year Average Corn reference price equals: 3.70 Note: USDA price forecasts are all below reference price ($3.70); reference price replaces MYA for each of 2014 to 2018 crop years for ARC-CO
13 PRICE COMPARISON: CORN $4.60 $4.40 $4.20 CBO USDA Reference Price Forecasts ($ per bushel) $4.00 $3.80 $3.60 $3.40 $3.20 $
14 SUMNER COUNTY, KANSAS What-If WHEAT Change the county yields and Market Year Average (MYA) prices for 2014 and 2018 to see payments under ARC- County and PLC. Payments are stated per base acre, as such they are multiplied by.85. If there are 100 base acres per farm, multiple the result below by 100. Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Input County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC PLC Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre Wheat national loan rate equals: 2.94 Five-Year Average Wheat reference price equals: Note: USDA price forecasts are all below reference price ($5.50); reference price replaces MYA for each of 2014 to 2018 crop years for ARC-CO 5.50
15 PRICE COMPARISON: WHEAT $6.00 Price Forecasts ($ per bushel) $5.50 $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 CBO USDA Reference
16 Input BONNEVILLE CO., IDAHO State Idaho County Bonneville Crop Barley Type All PLC Payment Yield 108 What-If BARLEY Change the county yields and Market Year Average (MYA) prices for 2014 and 2018 to see payments under ARC- County and PLC. Payments are stated per base acre, as such they are multiplied by.85. If there are 100 base acres per farm, multiple the result below by 100. Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Input County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC PLC Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre Barley national loan rate equals: 1.95 Five-Year Average Barley reference price equals: Note: USDA price forecasts are all below reference price ($4.95), so reference price replaces MYA for each of 2014 to 2018 crop years for ARC-CO 4.95
17 PRICE COMPARISON: BARLEY $5.50 Price Forecasts ($ per bushel) $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 CBO USDA Reference $
18 HIDALGO COUNTY, TEXAS GRAIN SORGHUM Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Input County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC PLC Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre Grain Sorghum national loan rate equals: 1.95 Five-Year Average 8 26 Grain Sorghum reference price equals: 3.95 Note: USDA price forecasts are all below reference price ($3.95); reference price replaces MYA for each of 2014 to 2018 crop years for ARC-CO
19 PRICE COMPARISON: GRAIN SORGHUM $4.20 Price Forecasts ($ per bushel) $4.00 $3.80 $3.60 $3.40 CBO USDA Reference $3.20 $
20 PEANUTS, WORTH COUNTY, GEORGIA Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Input County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC PLC Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre Peanuts national loan rate equals: Five-Year Average Peanuts reference price equals: Note: USDA price forecasts are all below reference price ($0.2675/lb), so reference price replaces MYA for each of 2014 to 2018 crop years for ARC-CO
21 PRICE COMPARISON: $0.30 PEANUTS Price Forecasts ($ per pound) $0.28 $0.26 $0.24 $0.22 $0.20 $0.18 CBO USDA Reference $0.16 $0.14 $0.12 $
22 Input RICE, ARKANSAS COUNTY, ARKANSAS Change the county yields and Market Year Average (MYA) prices for 2014 and 2018 to see payments under ARC- County and PLC. Payments are stated per base acre, as such they are multiplied by.85. If there are 100 base acres per farm, multiple the result below by 100. Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Year Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre National loan rate equals: Five-Year Average 0 30 Reference price equals: Note: USDA price forecasts are all below reference price ($0.2675/lb), so reference price replaces MYA for each of 2014 to 2018 crop years for ARC-CO
23 PRICE COMPARISON: RICE $0.170 Price Forecasts ($ per hundredweight) $0.160 $0.150 $0.140 $0.130 $0.120 CBO USDA Reference
24 MAKING THE CHOICE ARC-CO & PLC 1. Expected payments (much depends on price expectations) 2. What type of risk to cover Moderately low prices and yields (ARC-CO) Lower prices (PLC) 3. Availability of SCO (with PLC)
25 COMPARE ARC-CO & PLC: PRICES Soybean price forecasts (high and low scenarios) do not fall below the reference price in any of the crop years Under these scenarios, PLC would not be expected to be effective for soybeans
26 COMPARE ARC-CO & PLC: PRICES Significant differences in forecasted corn prices; recent high prices compared to reference price; long-term price collapse expected to be necessary for PLC 10% maximum and county average yields are also relevant to the ARC-CO payment
27 COMPARE ARC-CO & PLC: PRICES Wheat reference price is much closer to the forecasted price levels Wheat program decision more sensitive to smaller price declines but also expected to be more sensitive to yield variations
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