RIVISTA DI STUDI POLITICI INTERNAZIONALI

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1 RSPI NUOVA SERIE RIVISTA DI STUDI RSPI NUOVA SERIE POLITICI INTERNAZIONALI Direttore MARIA GRAZIA MELCHIONNI NEI PROSSIMI NUMERI GIULIO TERZI DI SANT AGATA Sfida cibernetica: la quinta dimensione della sicurezza MASSIMO CASTALDO La questione russa MARIA CLARA CASTELLI Un confronto fra civiltà nel dibattito russo attuale sull Europa DOMENICO CACCAMO La crisi ucraina e il problema del confine orientale dell Ue BARBARA BELLANI Alberto Moravia e l Unione Sovietica DIETER KRIMPHOVE - SVEN BARTH Child poverty in fundamental rights MERCÈ SALES JARDÍ L intérêt supérieur de l enfant concernant les familles alternatives dans les arrêts de la Cedh OTTOBRE-DICEMBRE 2014 ANNO 81 FASC. 324 OTTOBRE-DICEMBRE 2014 ANNO 81 FASC. 324 SANDRO DE BERNARDIN Lo stato d attuazione della politica estera europea TATIANA ZONOVA - ROMAN REINHARDT Main vectors of Russia s foreign policy ( ) ALEXEY GROMYKO Smaller or Greater Europe? EKATERINA ENTINA Russia s return to the international arena. How the Eurasian Economic Union should be estimated? IGOR SHCHERBAK New horizons for a Greater Eurasia HOUMAN A. SADRI Eurasian Economic Union (Eeu): a good idea or a Russian takeover? GIUSEPPE PERRI Premesse storiche e linee di tendenza della politica polacca verso l Ucraina 19,00 RSPI NUOVA SERIE

2 Smaller or Greater Europe? ALEXEY GROMYKO The Russian foreign policy in the beginning of XXI century Modern Russia feels itself, thinks and acts primarily as a European country. Its Europeanness is not necessarily defined by relations with the European Union (Eu) and other actors to the West of its borders. To be a Russian European does not mean to pursue exclusively a pro-euroatlantic path; or a policy of integration into organizations which had been set up. At the same time the foreign policy of Russia is permeated with the understanding that the most developed and densely populated part of the country is located in Europe; that the last five centuries Russia s political and economic history has been massively linked to this part of the world. Russia as one of the major components of the European civilization in the course of its long history was spreading it to many millions of square kilometres from the Ural Mountains to the Pacific Ocean introducing it not only to Siberia but also to the Far East and to Central Asia. When Russia was moving East and South it was carrying with its expansion generally a European way of thinking and European culture being itself one of its sources. Europeaness of Russia and therefore the European nature of its foreign policy do not mean that the country lacks interests in other parts of the world. Russia and several other European countries in the past built Empires stretching far beyond the geographical borders of Europe. And in general the history of Europe to a big extent was a history of expansion and penetration to other regions of the planet. Transregional and global ambitions do not contradict but confirm the fact that Russia is a major European State. At the same time Russia has some unique features. For example, the bulk of its territory is in Asia; it is inhabited by many non-european peoples, speaking non-european languages and practicing non-european religions. And there is a paradox: after the break-up of the Soviet Union Russia became more European, not less. The fact that in the XXI century Russia generally preserves the European character of its world outlook is not less true than the fact that it has many peculiarities. The diversity of Russia is not a burden, but a unique competitive advantage in comparison to many other European nations. And by the way, many of them 517

3 ALEXEY GROMYKO do their best not to lose and to augment their influence far from Europe. Such desire is conspicuously epitomized in the notion of soft power. So many countries in Europe exert their efforts to compensate for lack of their territorial proximity to other parts of the world. As for Russia its bigger part is in Asia and its geopolitical reach is huge: it borders on sea and land with such places as Turkey, Transcaucasia, Central Asia, China, Mongolia, the Korean peninsula, Japan. The modern foreign policy of Russia is confronted with challenges of diversification. And its desire to look in different directions is not an exotic objective. Quite the opposite: it was exotic that in the 1990s Russia withdrew from many regions of the world. Partly that was substantiated by a new reality, but partly that was a blunder. Since then Russia was struggling to regain its influence in new historical circumstances. We do not speak about that strategic depth, which the Soviet Union could afford itself. Russia is not a superpower any more, but still it is a transregional power with a great potential. The national interests of Russia with its vast territory, innumerable natural and mineral resources, a well-educated labour force and valuable human capital demand from Russia strategic relations with Europe, Asia and other regions and continents. In other words: a transregional foreign policy with global elements. It is true that Russia is riddled with problems, but who is not? In order to solve them Russia needs not to reduce the intensity of its foreign policy, but to make it even more productive and effective. If Russia scales down its ambitions and takes advice of those who call it to become «a normal European country», to reduce its attention to transregional and global problems, which do not have a direct impact on Russia, what will the consequences be? Nothing in the foreseeable future, even the Ukrainian crisis, will cancel the fact that the Eu is bound to stay the key trade partner of Russia in the years to come. The necessity to strengthen the eastern vector of Russian foreign policy has nothing to do with a desire to distance itself from the rest of Europe. Of course, theoretically you can invent a scenario in which Russia takes a strategic turn from West to East. And arguments for such a turn would be quite clear first of all that the centre of gravity is moving from the Euro-Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific region. But, firstly, even if it continues at such a pace, such a shift will take a long time to be accomplished. Secondly, such a process is not and will not be straight forward and clear cut. It will not lead to black-and-white ascendancy of new centres of power at the expense of Europe. In the XXI century we will witness the redress of the global balance of power but not any new hegemony which will be impossible in a multipolar, polycentric and multilateral world. In these circumstances it will be conducive to the foreign policy of Russia to keep developing its partnerships in all parts of the world. Its aspirations to become a Euro-Pacific power should not weaken its clout in Europe per se. The stronger it is in Greater Europe, the more attractive it will be to its partners across the world. And the opposite, by the way, 518

4 Smaller or Greater Europe? is equally true. Different vectors of Russian foreign policy should be treated as compatible and reinforcing each other than competing with one another. As to eastern policy in terms of geopolitics and geoeconomics, to urge Russia to go to the East means fighting with windmills. Indeed, Russia is working with such formats as the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Sco), Collective Security Treaty Or - ganization (Csto), Customs Union, Common Economic Space and the most ambitious project: the Eurasian Economic Union (Eeu), which comes into effect from January All of these endeavours demonstrate that for Russia the dilemma East or West is false. To go just one of these ways is a delusion, even a threat to national security. Integration processes in the post-soviet space comprise territories to the West, East and South of Russia. It needs all of them. In all of these projects Russia does not push different territories apart from each other but tries to pull them together. Ups and downs of eurocentrism In recent decades the European Union (or Smaller Europe to be distinguished from Greater Europe, which includes Russia and other non-eu countries) has turned into a significant player on the global scene. Euroentrism was returning to the global politics in the 1990s after the bipolar world became a thing of the past. Western and Central Europe ultimately came out of the shadow of the two Superpowers after almost five decades in the wake of the Second World War. That geopolitical downgrading of Smaller Europe was largely a self-made achievement of Europeans. Both World Wars were born in the depths of the European civilization and were not brought from outside. They became the apogee of the self-destruction that Europe drew upon itself. The theatre of the Second World War in the Pacific and Asia was on periphery of the principal battle in the heart of the Old World. Military conflicts of the epic scale, that had nearly destroyed Europe, shortened the time needed for emergence of the non-european centres of power (including the Non-Aligned Movement), capable of playing an autonomous role in world politics. The greatest advantage from the geopolitical overshadowing of the pre-war Europe gained the United States, and within Europe, the Soviet Union (at the expense of colossal human toll and material losses). It is worth mentioning that although both World Wars accelerated the decay of the Western Europe s power, they were not the initial cause of it. The law of the rise and fall of great powers was functioning long before that wars broke out, and, from the viewpoint of historical development, the European Empires were doomed well before 1914 or But it was in the course of those wars that the European Empires collapsed, some in , and some after the Second World War (German, Italian, Japanese). The demise of European Empires was a matter of time (British, French, Dutch, Portugal). In the Western 519

5 ALEXEY GROMYKO Europe s (within the European Economic Community-15 borders) share in global Gdp dropped from more than 33% to a quarter of it. Post-1945 world banished eurocentrism from international agenda for a long time in favour of two global missionary projects: the American and the Soviet. To be more precise, it was the end of eurocentrism, which the world in its traditional meaning knew before the First World War. That eurocentrism was characterized not only by the most advanced technologies and by living standards, but also by the deep internal conflicts, which turned the history of Europe into an everlasting chain of wars and confrontations. Europe, as a subject of international relations, never existed before, being instead a sum of States and colonial Empires, spread over the continent. Among themselves, the European countries formed various unions and coalitions, but they were inevitably shortlived. Never in history had they managed to form a united geopolitical front. At the same time, many achievements of the European civilization stem from the constant struggle and competition of its numerous parts. The most long-lasting union was the Concert of Europe formed after the Congress of Vienna in and based not only on interests, but also on values. In any case, all geopolitics came down to maintaining the balance of power, which was of unsteady and non-durable nature. After 1945 eurocentrism of international relations continued to exist, but in two new forms: in the incarnation of the Soviet Union, which by most parameters was a product of the Enlightenment paradigm, and in the form of Western and Central Europe as the principal arena of confrontation between the two poles of Cold War rivalry. That rivalry made Europe more an object than a subject of global politics. The attempts of European metropolitan countries that survived the Second World War to prevent the decay of their Empires just postponed the time when Europe could come back to global politics as an independent player. It happened, paradoxically, only after leading West European powers (Great Britain and France were the last two in this row due to the Suez crisis) were forced to abandon their global claims, including their colonies, dominions, dependent territories. As a result, for the first time in their history they turned from Empires to nation-states. Only then Smaller Europe realized that the way to revival of its global ambitions lied through regional integration, through turning a mere sum of European States into a strategic and long-lasting union. There were no other viable alternatives left. In short historical terms former European metropolitan countries, transformed into European nation-states, decided to start a process of delegation of a part of their national sovereignty to super-national structures that had never before existed in the history of Europe. Such a qualitative turn in the minds of West European intellectuals and politicians was caused by the reasons of unprecedented nature: the horrors of the Second World War and then the unique 520

6 Smaller or Greater Europe? conditions of competition between the two Superpowers. These processes brought outstanding results: Germany became a pacifist nation, and Paris and Bonn not only undertook the historic reconciliation, but became the closest European allies and the two main parts of the European integration engine. The period from 1950s to 1973, when the first global energy crisis broke out, probably was the Golden Age of the post-war Europe. The bipolar world, which after 1945 cast the geopolitical shadow over Europen continent, at the same time created the conditions, in which the integration project developed for a relatively long time and in relative favourable conditions. The former was possible due to the Soviet-American mutual containment, the latter due to the American military, partly political and initially economic protectorate over Western Europe, in general due to unwillingness of the two Superpowers to involve themselves in direct confrontation with each other. Of course, those conditions were not a greenhouse, but, nevertheless, they were sufficient for creation of the European communities and later, in the 1990s, the European Union. The intensity of the post-war geopolitical shadow was not uniform. A number of West European States in that period continued to play an important role in international affairs: for example, the Great Britain and France as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and nuclear powers. However, the autonomy of their actions on the regional and global scale was constrained as never before, especially compared to the two previous centuries. Judicially, the Eu did not become the subject of international law until the Lisbon treaty in 2007 (came into force in 2009). At the same time, it was in those conditions that Smaller Europe integration project had accumulated the economic, social and political resources, which after the collapse of the bipolar world made it possible to claim for that part of Europe a more significant status in world affairs and, in the beginning of the XXI century, even a leading role in international relations. In this context the 1990s witnessed the revival of hopes for recreation of eurocentrism in international relations, at least of hopes that the domination of the United States (Us) in Euroatlantic would be replaced by an alliance of the equals between the Us and the Eu. By the time the bipolar world collapsed, Smaller Europe turned into an economic and trading giant with the single market and freedom of movement of labor, capital, goods and services (partial). Further plans were envisaged in the areas of political integration, security and defence. After the Maastricht treaty in 1992, those plans started to take shape. The method of integration spillover from one area into another brought favourable results. Creation of the Economic and Monetary Union was a breakthrough on the way to federalization, followed and enforced by swift transformation of euro into the second global reserve currency. In 2005 the Eu-25 already secured about 40% of the world trade. 521

7 ALEXEY GROMYKO Eu Usa Japan China Brasil Canada India Russia Graph 1: Major world economies (nominal Gdp, bln $) Source: International Monetary Fund, Pre-crisis data, made available in 2009, showed that the sum of the Eu-27 economies was on the first place in global rating. Bric countries were in the top 8, Russia on the 8 th place. Ppp-adjusted, Russia was on the 5-6 th places, and China aspired for the 1 st rank. The Saint-Malo treaty of 1998 between Great Britain and France opened prospects of deeper Eu s autonomy in security and defence. At the same time, despite many declarations that soft power was becoming the main instrument of international influence, Europe was witnessing growing popularity of ideas best articulated by Robert Cooper, a British diplomat, who divided the world into premodern, modern and post-modern States 1 (the other well-known categorization: pre-industrial countries mainly in Africa, industrial such as Brics, and postindustrial mainly the Eu and Us). According to this logic, the Eu was surrounded by the world full of traditional threats and therefore it was important to «keep the gunpowder dry». Moreover, the Us, the closest ally of Smaller Europe, consistently demonstrated inclination to use hard power. Military budget of the country, despite the end of the Cold War, grew rapidly, spurred by the obsession of the American political class with the idea of unipolarity and the benevolent American Empire. Those ideas reached the peak of popularity in early 2000s, when neoconservatives hijacked the Us foreign policy. Against that background, those European politicians who believed in strengthening the Eu s autonomy in foreign policy, security and defence gained the additional impetus to promote their ideas. Already in 1999 the Eu started to form its own rapid reaction forces, and later, in 2004 more flexible «combat groups» 2. 1 Robert Cooper, The post-modern State and the world order, London, Demos, V.V. Zhurkin, European army: defeats and victories. Common security and defense policy of the European Union, 522 Moscow, International Relations, 2012.

8 Smaller or Greater Europe? The catastrophic failure of the Us neoconservative approach in the Middle East, combined with its negligence towards the allies, strengthened the Eu aspiration to play by its own rules. In the course of the previous decade, before 2008, there were plenty of European political and economic commentators who wrote not just about different interests, but about divergence in values between Europe and Us, about fundamental differences between their models of development. Those ideas were epitomized for example by the works of Jurgen Habermas 3 from Germany and Jacques Derrida 4 from France, Will Hutton 5 from Britain and Jeremy Rifkin 6 from the Us. It seemed that the looming European Constitution, unprecedentedly long period of economic growth, new waves of the Eu enlargement, closer relations between Paris, Berlin and Moscow (the Big Three Summits) would inevitably secure global leadership for Greater Europe. The upbeat mood in that period made it possible to negotiate and adopt the first and only European security strategy (2003). Pax americana was being replaced by Pax europaea. Europe and polycentricity It was not just aspirations of the unipolar world yielding place to the multilateral one. In parallel, the idea of polycentricity was gaining popularity. The notion of the polycentric world did not coincide with multilateralism. The latter envisaged the growing role of Smaller Europe in partnership with the Us and other parts of the collective West. In other words, it implied reconfiguration of influence within Euroatlantics while preserving its leading positions in global affairs. In contrast to that, polycentricity foresaw the reduction of the role of the collective West in favour of other centres of power and influence both in Europe and beyond. Notably, the multipolar world of the XXI century, similar to previous world systems, continues to be of a hierarchic nature. However, it is no more a system of two pyramids of influence as it was in the bipolar era, and not a single pyramid of the unipolar world, rather it is a multi-level structure with first among equals, secondary and marginal centres of influence. In this context, the world is no longer polar. The crystallization of polycentricity was accelerated by the global crisis. In recent years, it entered its third social and political phase, which merged with the two preceding financial and economic. 3 For example: Jürgen Habermas, Split West, Moscow, Ves Mir, Jürgen Habermas, Jacques Derrida, February 15, or What binds Europeans together: a plea for a common foreign policy, beginning in the core of Europe, in «Constellations», 2003, vol. 10, n Will Hutton, The world we are in, London, Little, Brown, Jeremy Rifkin, The European dream: how Europe s vision of the future is quietly eclipsing the American dream, Cambridge, Polity,

9 ALEXEY GROMYKO The exaggerated character of public and political elites expectations in the Eu Member States became clear after the failure of the European constitution ratification in The ensuing shock was caused not so much by the failure of referendums, but by the fact in what countries it occurred: in France and Netherlands, which were founding members of the Eu. The traditional centre/core periphery pattern of Smaller Europe turned upside down: some peripheral countries demonstrated greater loyalty to the integration project than a number of the core States. As a result, the periphery of the Eu now can be anywhere, as well as its centre. As the Us overestimated their ability to carry out unilateral global administration, as the European Union in the circumstances of the emerging polycentric world found itself incapable of becoming its major driving force on the basis of post-modern soft power and normative rules. The Eu s hopes for swift transformation into the leading power of the XXI century were finally buried by the global economic crisis, which, having started in the Us, in 2008 engulfed Europe. The crisis highlighted disparities in Smaller Europe integration model, which for a long time were neglected by the Eu politicians and bureaucrats. Table 1: GDP growth rate (compared to previous year, %) zil Source: The World Bank, data for Eu-28 and euro zone: Eurostat, do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec The data in Table 1 show how fragile is Smaller Europe in the times of crisis. The Euro Zone continued to demonstrate negative growth in Among the Brics countries, the most notable decline happened in Russia, which was not a surprise taking into account the lopsided character of its economy. The only other Brics country, which did not avoid decline Brazil bounced back in Continuous economic growth rates in India and China reflect the fact that the 524

10 Smaller or Greater Europe? intensity of the global crisis has been concentrated in the western part of the world. The depth and scale of the crisis had a silver lining: disillusioned Europeans were made to ponder about alternative ways of development. The Lisbon treaty, the strengthening of the Economic and Monetary Union, adoption of financial stability mechanisms, implementation of the European Semester, the launch of the Banking Union, negotiations on the Growth and Employment Union all these and other steps (except the Lisbon treaty) would not have been taken if it had not been for the bitter pill of the crisis. This modernization framework, in case of success, will lead to a more powerful, stable and consolidated European Union, which will inevitably convert its enhanced integrity into a more assertive foreign policy. In general, after the period of deep rifts in the Euroatlantic community caused by the Iraq intervention and other controversies, unprecedented since the Suez crisis in 1956, geopolitical disagreements have faded. This does not mean that the divergence between the allies in 2003 was an aberration. On the contrary, those events demonstrated that in Smaller Europe there is a profound potential to establish its own vision of regional and global problems. The Ukrainian crisis has created one more setback on the way of the Eu acquiring its autonomous foreign and security policy and strategic vision. To big extent, this crisis for Smaller Europe was self-inflicted because of the politicised and compartmentalised nature of the Eastern Partnership project. Moreover, it has been used by advocates of the collective West with the Us as a leader to kick the Common Security and Defence Policy (Csdp) into the long grass and to align foreign policy of major European capitals with the foreign policy of Washington. However, the emergence of the European Union as an autonomous player on the global scene in the long run seems inescapable. This tendency is eased by the Us itself, which attention to Europe in its strategic thinking is declining. The main thrust of the American foreign policy is «Europe the past; the Middle East the present; Asia the future». Additionally, the more Great Britain loses its influence in the Eu and the more the Us departs to Asian and Pacific region, the greater the chance that the Eu resumes its advance towards multispeed Europe, including the areas of Csdp. Such expectations are reinforced by various opinion polls, which show that the majority of the Eu population sympathizes with the idea of the European common foreign policy 7. This process is bound to follow a twisting path. The Ukrainian crisis in many ways has been developing according to the template set by the Balkan troubles in the 1990s, paving the way for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) intervention in The Us recaptured the initiative from their European allies in solving their own problems when they appeared incapable of doing it in their 7 Dirk Peters, A divided Union? Public opinion and the Eu s Common Foreign, Security and Defence Policy, Recon Online Working Paper 2011/19, June 2011, html. 525

11 ALEXEY GROMYKO own backyard. The Us, as any major power, especially the one, which believes in its exceptionalism, strictly follows its own interests. As a consequence, Washington s foreign policy in various situations has diverged from national interests of different European countries. Sometimes it directly contradicted them as it happened in case of Iraq intervention in 2003 or in case of anti-russian sanctions in One of the recent examples of such contradiction is the chain of events, which led to the instalment of new authorities in Kiev through violent and unconstitutional means. In fact, Ukraine has been transformed into a political protectorate of Washington. This has severely damaged not only Russian- Ukrainian relations and relations between Moscow and Brussels, but also the process of the Eu becoming a political subject of international relations. The countries of the Weimar triangle Germany, France and Poland, that took part in drafting and signing on February 21, 2014 the agreement between the Ukrainian president Yanukovich and leaders of opposition parties de facto disavowed it the next day having surrendered the political initiative to Washington, which promoted its own agenda. The Ukrainian crisis has been used for the new round of the Euroatlantic consolidation, which in the beginning of the XXI century was getting more and more pluralistic. Alas, this consolidation is based on the well-known and regrettable tune: the «threat from the East», resurrected from the times of the Cold War. Nato is trying to gain new momentum on the current anti-russian wave. As a result, the prospects of Greater Europe as a common political, economic and security space from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific are becoming increasingly obscure. But don t write off these prospects; the world, including Greater Europe, in year time will be a very different and hopefully better place. 526

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