Changes in the exchange rate regimes in Latin America and their effects on trade and growth

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1 PROJECT LNK MEETNG New York, 1-1 April Changes in the exchange rate regimes in Latin America and their effects on trade and growth Alfredo Calcagno UNCTAD

2 General background Economic stagnation: in 3, per capita GDP % lower than in 1997, and only 3.3% higher than in 19 nvestment at historical lows, unemployment rate at historical highs, public discontent with the functioning of market economy and with economic reforms A recovery is under way in. External conditions have improved. More room of manoeuvre for macroeconomic management (role of exchange rate regimes) But serious obstacles to development remain: high public debt, external vulnerability, weak domestic demand, income inequalities, lack of credit supply, improper functioning of privatized firms or services, insufficient linkages between exports and the rest of the economy

3 Latin America: Net Transfer of Resources, (million dollars) Source: ECLAC

4 Exchange rate system Dollarization Panamá Panamá Panamá Ecuador Currency board Panamá Ecuador Argentina Argentina Argentina Argentina Panamá Ecuador El Salvador Others with fixed exch. rate Crawling peg El Salvador El Salvador El Salvador El Salvador Bolivia Costa Rica Nicaragua Bolivia Costa Rica Nicaragua Bolivia Costa Rica Nicaragua Bolivia Costa Rica Nicaragua Bolivia Costa Rica Nicaragua Crawling bands Floating rates Brazil Colombia Chile Ecuador Honduras Uruguay Venezuela Guatemala Haití México Paraguay Perú Rep. Domin. Colombia Chile Honduras Uruguay Venezuela Brazil Ecuador Guatemala Haití México Paraguay Perú Rep. Domin. Honduras Uruguay Venezuela Brazil Chile Colombia Guatemala Haití México Paraguay Perú Rep. Domin. Honduras Uruguay Venezuela Brazil Chile Colombia Guatemala Haití México Paraguay Perú Rep. Domin. Honduras Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Guatemala Haití México Paraguay Perú Rep. Domin. Uruguay Venezuela Source: Alfredo Calcagno, Política cambiaria en Latinoamérica, FOROS, BCV, May 3

5 GDP growth, REER and current account balance (source: ECLAC) Argentina Brazil REER (index = 1, right axis) REER (index = 1, right axis) Chile Colombia REER (index = 1, right axis) REER (index = 1, right axis)

6 GDP growth, REER and current account balance (source: ECLAC) Ecuador Mexico REER (index = 1, right axis) REER (index = 1, right axis) Dominican Uruguay REER (index = 1, right axis) REER (index = 1, right axis)

7 Exchange rates, prices and interest rates Argentina V 1 V V 3 V Exchange rate (left axis) WP (left axis) CP (left axis) nterest rate (right axis)

8 Exchange rates, prices and interest rates Chile 1997 V 199 V 1999 V V 1 V V 3 V 1 1 Exchange rate (left axis) WP (left axis) CP (left axis) nterest rate (right axis)

9 Exchange rates, prices and interest rates Brazil V 1999 V V 1 V V 3 V Exchange rate (left axis) WP (left axis) CP (left axis) nterest rate (right axis)

10 Exchange rates, prices and interest rates Mexico 1997 V 199 V 1999 V V 1 V V 3 V Exchange rate (left axis) WP (left axis) CP (left axis) nterest rate (right axis)

11 Brazil: Contributions to GDP growth GDP Domestic demand Exports mports

12 México: Contributions to GDP growth GDP Domestic demand Exports mports

13 Argentina: Contributions to GDP growth GDP Domestic demand Exports mports

14 Contributions to GDP growth. Chile GDP Domestic demand Exports mports

15 Recapitulation More flexible exchange rate regimes helped to correct relative prices in several countries They also provided more room for macroeconomic policies This has been important not only (or mainly) for increasing exports, but also for enhancing their impact into the rest of the economy Fixed regimes with overvalued currency were very harmful But many other obstacles to development remain Conclusion: exchange rate regime is important, but is not the only important question