US ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (MLPs) 2014 Outlook PGS. Overview. February MLPs: 2014 Encore Opportunities Following a Strong 2013

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1 US ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (MLPs) 2014 Outlook February 2014 MLPs: 2014 Encore Opportunities Following a Strong 2013 Overview MLPs delivered a banner year in 2013 with the Alerian Index up 27.6%. How will we provide an appropriate encore for 2014? There was important MLP price dispersion in 2013, with 80 out of 90 energy MLPs up for the year. Individual MLP performance ranged from a high of % to a low of -35.6% for those energy MLPs listed for the entire year. As the US energy revolution continues to transform the transportation and storage needs for the energy market, the MLP landscape has become a story of the haves, the have nots and the true turnarounds. The US energy revolution continues in full force. The traditional economics of supply and demand are continuing to drive price changes for crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) that are forcing the evolution of the gathering, processing, transportation and storage business for these commodities and their by-products saw significant change in the needs of the US energy network; 2013 saw the emergence of the export markets growth will likely see the US energy revolution s impact on parts of the global energy markets. The US annual capital expenditures are 14 times greater than Russia and 28 times greater than Saudi Arabia. Last year we wrote that the energy revolution is revitalizing and reshaping manufacturing in the US, especially the chemical and steel industries. Electric utilities are quickly migrating from coal to natural gas as the cheaper and cleaner fuel. This trend will continue through A big topic in Davos this year was the large differential in energy prices between the US and Europe. In fact, now some European companies are considering moving their manufacturing to the US where the cost of energy is a mere fraction compared to Europe. US energy products are so cheap and in such abundance that we are watching as billions of dollars are committed towards the building of export infrastructure. The EIA predicts that the US will be energy independent by MLPs are in the sweet spot, reconfiguring and growing their transportation networks in the fastest growing energy market in the world, responding to their customers needs for solutions. MLPs enjoy visible earnings stability through long-term contracts, growing demand for their services and expertise, and an infrastructure landscape requiring years of additional development. We believe one of the most important themes for the next five years will be hydrocarbon exports, as producers seek new markets and higher prices while the world market seeks lower prices from the US. Although US interest rates have begun to rise, the prospect for MLPs are still strong. Historically, MLPs have outperformed other yield strategies and often the broader equity market during periods of rising US rates. MLPs offer the benefit of growing distributions, an inflation hedge and participation in the US energy revolution.

2 2014 Will Be A Stock Picker s Market Price dispersion among MLPs defines a stock picker s market. Our portfolio approach applies a topdown analysis identifying the most important themes and a fundamental bottom-up process for selecting the best positioned MLPs will require our getting both the themes and our names correct. We believe that the important themes for this year are: Above average, sustainable distribution growth via a strong pipeline of dropdowns from a sponsor or visible organic growth This has been an important theme for the past 3 years. MLPs with strong corporate sponsors having a portfolio of MLP eligible assets to dropdown to their MLPs have been a win/win/ win strategy for the MLP, the sponsor and the investor. We expect this trend to continue in We continue to favor MLPs with exposure to crude oil and refined product logistics. General Partners As they say in the industry, if one likes the MLP, one should love the GP. GPs have a levered exposure to the earnings of the MLP. GPs do not generally issue equity, as their capital needs are usually minimal, and a GP s distribution tend to grow at multiples of the underlying MLP s distribution growth. Of course, the attractiveness of the GP is driven by the attractiveness of its underlying MLP/s. Turnarounds with an above average, safe distribution There are several MLP management teams that have done a masterful job transforming their MLP footprint over the past several years. A few continue to have high yields and are starting to grow distributions again. With these MLPs, we anticipate strong capital appreciation along with an attractive yield. Eventually, these MLPs spreads will come in line with their lower yielding peers. MLPs with minimal commodity risk and in the lower GP splits Commodity prices may be volatile in There has been a trend in recent years for the gathering & processing (G&P) MLPs to move closer to an all fee business. Some G&P MLPs have price risk exposure to NGLs. Ethane prices collapsed in 2012, when propane and butane prices also weakened. Propane and butane prices have seen strong recovery as the export market grew and demand picked up in Some MLPs have faced ethane rejection in 2013 and will likely see this continue in Experts expect the ethane market to come back into balance in 2016 to 2017, as petrochem projuects come online and demand increases. Most analysts forecast a modest drop in WTI by year-end. If there is a significant drop in the price of crude oil, some MLPs may have less favorable terms for contract renewals. Others may be in a strong position to capitalize on basis and quality differentials that emerge across various parts of the US. With the continued low volatility and price of natural gas, MLPs exposed mostly to natural gas transportation and storage may also have less favorable contract renewals. 2

3 Exploration & Production E&P MLPs underperformed midstream MLPs in We believe they are poised for potential outperformance this year. E&P MLPs are 50% less volatile than their C-Corp counterparts. E&P MLPs tend to hedge 70%+ of their commodity exposure. The average yield is 9.4%; these MLPs have a different business model than midstream MLPs, thus providing diversification and high yield. Following a year of underperformance, the E&P MLPs often outperform. There is an abundance of more mature producing assets at attractive prices for E&P MLPs to acquire, because C-corps would rather redeploy capital into the drillbit exploring emerging shale plays like the Spraberry/Wolfcamp. MLPs with strong business and low correlation to the traditional midstream MLPs Over the past few years we have found some interesting, opportunistic MLPs that have strong stories and a low correlation, (for various reasons) to other MLP names. Last year there were a number of MLP IPOs for nontraditional MLPs. We look at this group as a source of income, growth and diversification. The number of opportunities is growing, so we look at this sector with keen interest. US Energy Outlook 2014 The EIA s annual outlook for 2014 shows that the recent growth of crude oil and natural gas production is expected to continue for many years. By 2016, crude oil production is expected to equal the high set in 1970 of 9.6 million barrels per day. The EIA projects that crude oil production will level off by 2020, but natural gas production will grow steadily with a 56% increase from 2012 to Other key findings from the report include: Increased Tight Oil production, vehicle efficiency Low natural gas prices boost natural gas intensive industries in the US reduce petroleum and liquid imports Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation Higher natural gas production supports increased exports of pipeline and LNG Car and light truck fuel use declines sharply The EIA projects declines in U.S. oil and natural gas imports as a result of increasing domestic production from tight oil and shale plays. U.S. liquid fuels net imports as a share of consumption is projected to decline from a high of 60% in 2005, about 40% in 2012, to about 25% by The U.S. is projected to become a net exporter of natural gas by 2018 when sufficient LNG export facilities come online to accommodate flows. 3

4 Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) There is a significant low cost supply of natural gas and NGLs in the US. Prices for natural gas should be higher during 2014 as inventories have fallen and the winter has been unusually cold across much of the country. On January 24, natural gas hit $5 for the first time since The continued growth of the export market will be key to getting the US back into balance. The increase in natural gas demand will likely match supply growth over the next decade. Today, there is a preference for producing wet gas (natural gas with NGLs), because it is more valuable than dry gas, despite the low price of the NGL barrel, especially ethane. The Marcellus has become the lowest cost supplier and fastest growing gas production region in the US. US imports of natural gas continue to fall, as we replace imports with the Pennsylvania is the fastest growing natural gas-producing state Marketed natural gas in the top 10 producing states ( ) Ranking US s own abundant source. The chart on the following page shows the regional breakeven level for natural gas prices. Natural gas production is profitable for most producers when the price is between $4 and $5. The Marcellus has a clear advantage driving its infrastructure build out to accommodate flows in all four directions. The area accounted for 18% of US natural gas production in December The Marcellus has proven to be ideally located as a natural gas/ngl hub, driving much of the profitability for MLPs with strategic assets in the region. Names that we particularly like are EQM, MWE and WPZ. We believe that nat gas transportation and storage traditional MLPs are one of the less attractive opportunities for The NGL exposed MLPs are more interesting. Since January 17, 2014, the NGL barrel has recovered about 15% YoY with propane up 70.6%, ethane up 35.4%, butane down 5.5%, isobutane down 11.4% and natural gasoline down 2.6%. Significant nat gas and NGL infrastructure should come online during the first half of 2014 including over 5 bcf/d of processing capacity, numerous fractionators and NGL pipelines. NGL extraction is expected to increase by over 600 thousand b/d by Propane was the big winner in

5 and is spiking in January 2014 as demand explodes. The propane market recovery was due to exports. Propane exports are forecast to grow at a 5 year CAGR of 13%. EPD, NGLS, SXL and OILT are well positioned for the propane export market. The large growth of NGL supplies coming online will continue to put pressure on ethane prices, as the market will not likely come back into balance until petrochemical crackers come online. Petrochem demand and ethane exports should see 5 year CAGR of 9% and 24%, respectively, but ethane rejection is expected through 2018 to help balance the market. The export markets will be important for normal butane and natural gasoline as well, where the expected 5 year CARG is 29% and 15%, respectively. Breakeven Gas Prices Source: Enterprise Products Partners, Barclays Research The blue bars represent the breakeven price; the black horizontal lines indicate the amount of reserves not yet drilled. Crude Oil and Refined Products We forecast that WTI crude oil prices should remain in the range of $85 to $100 for 2014 despite the robust US production. As the chart on the following page shows, most oilfields breakeven with WTI in the $80 range. Eagle Ford production is expected to increase 27% in Barclays survey of producers in this region indicates that most are unlikely to curtail drilling activities until the wellhead prices have dropped below $55-$60/bbl, or an implied WTI price of $50-$55. Much of the new US production is light sweet crude, displacing light sweet imports. US refiners are optimized to use mostly heavy crude. A growing abundance of US light sweet coupled with inadequate takeaway will likely widen regional and world price differentials, creating opportunities for MLPs in the crude oil logistics sector. Crude oil and refined product pipelines have a 4.6% tariff increase that was set in place for the 12 months beginning July We particularly like PAA and TLLP. What if US crude oil prices drop to $50? E&P MLPs would be impacted, although most hedge a significant portion of their reserves several years out. Transportation and storage MLPs would be impacted when their contracts come up for renewal. Most contracts are for a minimum volume commitment at a specific fee. Generally, a small portion of an MLP s contracts come up for renewal each year. So the real impact may be seen a few years out, if prices did not recover. Moving a few years out the timeline as crude oil supply expands, the global markets may be helped on the demand side by growth from China and the emerging markets. There are several MLPs that are refiners. These MLPs represent an interesting potential hedge for a lower crude oil price, so long as the various oil spreads and crack spreads remain attractive. 5

6 Breakeven Oil Prices Shale oil and shale gas resources are globally abundant Source: Enterprise Product Partners, Barclays Research The blue bars represent the breakeven price; the black horizontal lines indicate the amount of reserves not yet drilled. The big talk in Washington now centers on the potential removal of the 1970s ban on exporting crude oil. The President may make the change, if he believes it to be in the national interest. Otherwise, lifting the ban will require an act of Congress. E&Ps are lobbying in favor of exports; refiners are against the change, since would be impacted. Few believe that a lift of the ban will happen in 2014 or under the current Administration. A potential compromise is to allow exports to swap light sweet exported in return for heavy crude imported. A near term solution is to mix light sweet to refine it, and then export, since there is no ban on exports of refined products. Global crude oil fundamentals are beginning to shift. Non-OPEC supply is growing at its fastest rate in decades and is forecast to exceed demand in 2014 for the first time since OPEC continues to struggle to meet its demand given the issues in Nigeria, Libya, Iraq and Iran. When one or more of these countries returns to a more normal level of production, we could see pressure on world prices. Total infrastructure build out over the next three years is $120 billion including acquisitions Announced capital investments for MLPs are already $53 billion through 2016 The major oil and gas basins are driving most of the new demand for infrastructure Major US Infrastructure Projects Source: Company filings, EIA, Tortoise Capital 6

7 The Significance of US LNG Export LNG export from the US is one of the most important developments for the natural gas markets since the combination of gas shale, hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling. The US is expected to be a net exporter by 2020, when the EIA estimates that LNG Proposed/Pending Facilities 14-19% of US production may be exported, assuming 12 Bcf/d of export capacity come January 2014 online by then. Reports suggest that 70% of this demand will be met from new natural gas production. As of January 1, 2014, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) had approved only five applications for permits to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) to non-fta nations. There are currently 21 pending applications, covering 19 facilities Source: American Petroleum Institute See interactive website: where U.S. businesses are seeking to build and operate terminals to process LNG for sales abroad. Eight of nine approved LNG export facilities (four to FTA countries) are at some stage of development. The estimated cost of converting an existing LNG import facility to export ranges from $6-10 billion and $20 billion for a new terminal. The current estimated cost to liquefy, ship and regas LNG from the US to Europe/Asia is $4-6/mmb. This presents an important arbitrage opportunity. The norm for pricing of LNG is based off of crude oil. Cheniere, the first facility that will come on line, has based their contract in Henry Hub +$15 and a fee for liquefying the gas. Japan and other countries Net US Natural Gas Imports (tcf) dependent upon LNG believe that pricing 4 Projected LNG off of oil is unfair. Some potential LNG operators have said they will not 2 proceed unless their contracts are priced 0 off of oil. Of the 21 additional applications submitted, several more may be -2-4 approved. MLPs with an extensive Gulf footprint are at an advantage for providing services to the exporters. Many MLPs already have a presence servicing LNG import facilities. This Source: EIA sector may be a strong growth driver for specific MLPs over the coming decade. Several of the largest MLPs have announced major projects that are linked to exports. Natural gas transportation to and storage near the LNG terminals is important. Additionally, there are several shipping companies with MLP affiliates that will be actively involved in moving LNG. Dominion s facility has been approved in the Chesapeake Bay which should bode well for Dominion s planned MLP and other Marcellus MLPs that provide natural gas processing and transportation to this facility. 7

8 2014 MLP Outlook Summary The US energy revolution has created a dynamic landscape and portscape that is creating multiple expansion and growth opportunities for MLPs. We expect to see more M&A in the MLP sector as the larger MLPs expand their footprint and try to make their network of infrastructure more efficient. Our preferred themes for 2014 include: visible dropdowns and organic growth, turnarounds, MLPs with minimal commodity exposure servicing the key shale basins, Exploration and Production, and several of the non-traditional MLPs. We believe there is very little chance of any US tax change impacting MLPs for the remainder of the Obama Administration s term. There is bipartisan support of the US energy revolution and acceptance of the role MLPs play. Historically, MLPs have performed well in a rising interest rate environment, because when rates rise the economy is usually expanding (which suggests increased pipeline and transportation flows) or inflation is rising. We are not concerned about high inflation in the US at this point, but MLPs do have built in inflation protection through inflation pass-through. Most of their debt is fixed rate and they have excess distribution coverage will be a stock pickers market. We see the MLP space ripe with opportunity. We are concerned that there will be market volatility this year, so we plan to manage our portfolios with maximum flexibility. MLPs should provide the opportunity for a 10-12% net return this year, given that distribution growth should be between 6.5%-8% and current yields average 6.0%. Given MLPs attractive yield compared to other yielding assets, we expect continued investor interest and additional investments from institutions. The coming year should also see C-corps with MLP eligible assets form and IPO MLPs. This has been a trend with integrated oil companies, utilities, and pipeline companies. Activist investors have also pushed certain of these companies like Marathon Oil, because the economics and efficiencies are so compelling. In summary, we believe 2014 will be full of challenges but ripe with opportunity in the energy sector, as MLPs participate in a rapidly changing environment. 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% MLP Yields Remain Attractive 5.8% January % 3.9% 3.9% MLPs US Utilities US REITs C-Corp Pipelines 2.2% US Bonds 1.9% US Equities 8

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