Pharma in China and India Market-Specific Social Risks and Opportunities. October 2013
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1 Pharma in China and India Market-Specific Social Risks and Opportunities October 2013
2 Before we begin 2 1 2
3 What we do Award-winning global provider of sustainability research and analysis with broad coverage of global capital markets staff and more than 80 analysts Over 20 years experience working with institutional investors to develop and implement responsible investment policies and strategies.
4 Speakers Hazel Goedhart, Sustainalytics Lloyd Kurtz, Nelson Capital 4
5 Notes on Pharma in Emerging Markets Lloyd Kurtz Nelson Capital
6 Important in large cap benchmarks APPLE INC ORACLE CORP EXXON MOBIL CORP BANK OF AMERICA CORP GOOGLE INC CITIGROUP INC BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY AMAZON.COM INC MICROSOFT CORP PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL GENERAL ELECTRIC CO MERCK & CO JOHNSON & JOHNSON BP PLC WAL-MART STORES INC SANOFI CHEVRON CORP VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC WELLS FARGO & CO TOTAL SA PROCTER & GAMBLE CO CISCO SYSTEMS INC ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FACEBOOK INC INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES VISA INC JPMORGAN CHASE & CO PEPSICO INC PFIZER INC GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC NOVARTIS AG SCHLUMBERGER LTD AT&T INC COMCAST CORP BHP BILLITON GROUP (AUS) DISNEY (WALT) CO VODAFONE GROUP PLC QUALCOMM INC COCA-COLA CO INTEL CORP Value of top 40 by Market Cap 7,384.7 Value of Pharma Companies 1,020.6 As percentage of top 40 14% Source: Empirical Research Partners
7 Most large firms growing slowly, if at all Forecasted EPS change, 2013e vs Eli Lilly Amgen Johnson & Johnson Roche GlaxoSmithKline Novartis Pfizer Merck Bristol-Myers Sanofi AstraZeneca -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Bloomberg
8 Current opportunity apparent Roche Pharmaceutical Division sales growth in E7 leading emerging markets China 27% South Korea 21% Turkey 15% Russia 14% Brazil 11% Mexico -4% India -23% Source: Roche 2012 annual report
9 Long-term opportunity even more apparent Current population Roche's E7, 3,182, 45% G-7, 747, 10% The G-7 represents more than the 66% of net global wealth ($223 trillion), according to Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report September Wikipedia Rest of World, 3,186, 45%
10 Historically difficult group to assess Product safety issues Promotion / on- and off-label Pricing / availability R&D priorities Governance
11 Some EM market characteristics Less-developed regulatory frameworks Less-developed health programs Promotionally sensitive Need for strong local management teams
12 Outcomes not always positive Sanofi Cuts Forecast as Earnings Miss on Brazilian Woes By Simeon Bennett - Aug 1, :46 AM PT Sanofi (SAN) cut its full-year forecast as second-quarter profit missed analysts estimates, hurt by inventory mismanagement in Brazil and generic competition. Earnings per share excluding some costs and currency swings may fall between 7 percent and 10 percent, France s largest drugmaker said in a statement. Sanofi previously expected profit to show no change or drop 5 percent at worst. The stock slumped the most in six weeks. Chief Executive Officer Chris Viehbacher said today he continues to expect a return to growth in the second half. Last quarter s 23 percent earnings decline reflected generic competition for some of the Paris-based company s best-selling medicines and poor performance at several units, including the one that sells generic drugs in Brazil. Source: Bloomberg
13 Well-managed companies will... Be careful about which markets to enter, and when Focus on a global safety standard Minimize promotional abuses Closely supervise local management teams
14 Pharma in China and India Market-Specific Social Risks and Opportunities Hazel Goedhart 7 October 2013
15 The Need for Adaptation Brand recognition and consumer trust Staying ahead of the regulatory curve New business models required, adapting to societal needs Proactively addressing market-specific risks and opportunities access to key growth markets 15
16 Focus on China and India China and India are key growth markets for the pharma industry Numerous growth drivers in emerging markets Europe and North America meanwhile face growth restrictions 16
17 Key Issues per Market China: Product Quality & Safety Marketing Corruption India: Patenting & pricing Ethical conduct during clinical trials 17
18 Assessing Company Performance: drug quality and safety - China 18
19 Assessing Company Performance: patenting & pricing - India 19
20 Recent Noteworthy Events GSK, July 2013 Chinese corruption allegations Ranbaxy, Sept 2013 product quality & safety New clinical trial regulations in India, ongoing 20
21 Conclusions Range of market-specific social risks Local companies: increase disclosure MNCs: take local circumstances into account Investors: include key issues in investment strategies, urge for more disclosure, and reward best practice 21
22 Questions? Hazel Goedhart Associate Analyst, Research Products Sustainalytics Lloyd Kurtz Chief Investment Officer Nelson Capital 22
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