Energy Economics and Finance Seminar

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1 Energy Economics and Finance Seminar Hilton Reykjavik Nordica Iceland 24th and 25th May 2013 Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) Alfred Getz vei 3, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway Papers presented at the conference will be considered for publication in a special issue of Journal of Energy Markets ( Please contact the seminar organisers if you would like to submit your paper. 1

2 Dear Participant Thank you very much for responding positively to our invitation to present at the our energy research seminar at Hilton Reykjavik Nordica Iceland 24 th and 25th May The purpose of this event is to stimulate an ongoing international dialogue among academics, industry participants and policymakers with mutual interests in energy markets and energy project investments. The workshop is organised with financial support from the ongoing research projects PURELEC, ELCARBONRISK and our organisation CENSES. Companies that participate in these projects are NTE, SAE Wind, NVE, ENOVA, Tafjord Kraft, and Eidsiva Energi. The gathering will provide the opportunity for researchers and practitioners to discuss theoretical and empirical issues regarding pricing of energy derivatives, risk management for energy companies, investment valuation of energy companies as well as real projects, optimisation of production and investment plans, and other decision support analysis within the energy sector. A tentative program is presented below. Each presentation will last for 20 minutes with 10 minutes discussion. Each session will have a chair. More specification and session schedules will be given as we receive the title for the talks. Lunch and dinner will be held both days at the hotel. We will also make a guided tour Saturday to a geothermic plant with outdoor swimming facilities. Organisers Stein-Erik Fleten (NTNU) mail: web: Sjur Westgaard (NTNU) mail: web: Workshop Sponsors NVE SAE Wind NTE SAE Wind Eidsiva Energi Tafjord Kraft The Research Council of Norway CENSES 2

3 PROGRAMME Friday 24 th May :45 Registration and Refreshments 09:15 Introductions and Welcome Sjur Westgaard (NTNU) 09:30-11:00 Energy Finance. Title. Session Chair Nina. Carl Measuring Regulatory Uncertainty in U.S. Power Markets" Ronnie A Model for Hedging Load and Price Risk in the Texas Electricity Market Ehud Using Equity Options to Obtain Forward-Looking Equity Betas with an Application to the Commodity Markets 11:00-11:30 Break 11:30-13:00 Electricity markets and renewables. Session Chair Kristin. Derek Modelling power prices and investment with influential, risk averse, heterogenous agents Michael A Model for Solar Renewable Energy Certificates: shining some light on price dynamics and optimal market design Peter Complementarity of renewable power generation in Brazilian electricity market: wind and hydro 13:00-14:00 Lunch 14:00-16:00 Commodity price time series.. Session Chair Ronald. Angelica Fukushima effect on Commodity prices Methap Electricity futures price dynamics: A time varying risk factor sensitivity approach to gas, coal, and carbon prices. Joseph Fractional Dynamics in Nord Pool Contracts: An Investigation and Application to Value-at-Risk Rafal Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices 16:00 Conclusion of day 1 20:00 Dinner PROGRAMME 3

4 Saturday 25th May :30-10:30 Commodity markets volatility and correlation. Session Chair Ehud. Nina The correlation structure of FX rates and commodity prices. Ronald "Predicting changes in power price volatility using fundamental regime switching model." Erik Value at Risk forecasts using realized volatility, garch models and quantile regression Gudbrand Covariance estimation using high-frequency data - Microstructure noise and sensitivities of estimation methods 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-13:00 Real Options. Title. Session Chair Carl. Trine Termination of renewable energy support schemes: How uncertainty speeds up investment rates Analytical solutions Kristin Termination of renewable energy support schemes: How uncertainty speeds up investment rates Numerical results and discussion Afzal Investment in Alternative Energy Technologies under Physical and Policy Uncertainty Stein Erik Switching options in peak power plants: Preliminary evidence 13:00-14:00 Lunch 14:00-19:00 Guided Tour Blue Lagoon with bus 20:00 Dinner 4

5 Participants US Ehud Ronn, Austin, TX Carl Ullrich, Blacksburg, Virginia Michael Coulon, Princeton, NJ Ronnie Sircar, Princeton, NJ Joseph Onochie, NY EUROPE Derek Bunn, London, UK Angelica Gianfreda Afzal Siddiqui, London, UK Ronald Huisman, Rotterdam, Netherland Methap Kilic, Rotterdam, Netherland Trine Krogh Boomsma, Roskilde, Denmark Nina Lange, Copenhagen, Denmark Rafal Weron, Wroclaw Polen Stein Erik Fleten, Trondheim Norway Sjur Westgaard, Trondheim Norway Peter Molar, Trondheim Norway Gudbrand Lien, Lillehammer, Norway Erik Haugom, Lillehammer, Norway kap/faglig_ansatte/erik_haugom Kristin Linnerud, Sogndal, Norway Location of the Academic Program 5

6 Hilton Reykjavik Nordica Sudurlandsbraut 2, Reykjavik, 108, Ísland Tel: Fax: Flybus Keflavik Airport Reykjavik The Hilton Reykjavik Nordica hotel is situated in the heart of Reykjavik, in the triangle that connects the new city centre, the historic and the business district of the city. Keflavík airport is 45 Km from the city centre. The Flybus operates in connection with all arriving flights and your seat is always guaranteed. The Flybus departs from Keflavik Airport minutes after each flight arrival. Lunch and Dinner will also take place at the Hotel resort. Guided Tour The Blue Lagoon Geothermic Plan and Spa 6

7 On Saturday we will make a guided tour to both the Geothermic plant and the swimming facilities of the Blue Lagoon. The Blue Lagoon is located between the airport and Reykjavik city center. The guide will tell us how the lagoon was formed and the wonders of geothermic energy! 7

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