Design of Fuel Economy/Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Standards Learning from international experiences

Transcription

1 Design of Fuel Economy/Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Standards Learning from international experiences Worldwide Automobile Efficiency/GHG Standards Country/Region European Union # United States Japan # China # Canada South Korea Mexico India Regulated metric CO 2 emissions (CO 2 /km) Program details, reduction in CO 2 -per-distance emissions 40% reduction, MY EU NEDC Fuel economy (mi/gal) 42% reduction, MY GHG emissions (CO 2 e/mi) U.S. FTP Fuel economy (km/l) Fuel consumption (L/100km) GHG emissions (CO 2 e/mi) 30% reduction, MY Japan JC08 14% reduction, MY EU NEDC cycle 24% reduction, MY U.S. FTP Fuel economy (km/l) 12% reduction, MY CO 2 emissions (CO 2 /km) U.S. FTP Fuel economy (km/l) Fuel economy (km/l) 12% reduction, MY U.S. FTP 20% reduction, MY NEDC for low powered vehicles #: Separate standards established for light-commercial vehicles! 2 1

2 Comparison of passenger vehicle GHG standards Grams CO 2 per Kilometer normalized to NEDC! 260! 240! 220!! 180! 160! 140! 120! 100! 80! 60! Solid dots and lines: historical performance! Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets! Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets! Hollow dots and dotted lines: target under study! S. Korea 2015: 153! Mexico 2016: 173! China 2020: 117! Japan 2020: 105! EU 2020: 95! 40! 0! 5! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025!!"#$%&'()*+$,)-./,$-/0/1,+$.)+23'(/$4/&'13/+$2(356$7&/$,)-./,$8)5$9/$32:/-$);/-$(/:$/(/-.5$4/&'13/+$)-/$12(+'</-/<6$$!=#$>?$@$%)()<)@$)(<$A/B'12$3'.&,C<D,5$4/&'13/+$'(13D</$3'.&,C1288/-1')3$4/&'13/+6$ US-LDV! Canada-LDV! EU! Japan! China! S. Korea! Australia! Mexico! Canada 2025:109! US 2025:109! Slide 3 Grams CO 2 per Kilometer normalized to NEDC! Comparison of passenger vehicle GHG standards 280! 260! 240! 220!! 180! 160! 140! 120! 100! 80! 60! China 2010: 180! Japan 2010:127! EU! US-LDV! Japan! China! US 2011: 217! EU 2011: 135! China 2015: 167! China 2020: 117! US 2025:109! Japan 2020: 105! EU 2020: 95! 40! 0! 5! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025!!"#$%&'()*+$,)-./,$-/0/1,+$.)+23'(/$0//,$+1/()-'24$56$'(1378'(.$2,&/-$67/3$,9:/+;$,&/$,)-./,$<'33$=/$32</-4$$!>#$?@$)(8$%)()8)$3'.&,A87,9$B/&'13/+$'(1378/$3'.&,A12CC/-1')3$B/&'13/+4$!D#$E((7)3$-),/$'+$1)3173),/8$7+'(.$=)+/3'(/$)1,7)3$:/-62-C)(1/$)(8$,)-./,$B)37/+4$ Annual reduction rate %!?@$J>K""A>K>LM$ F4GH$ %&'()J>K"KA>K>KM$ N?J>K""A>K>KM$ D4GH$ F4>H$ O):)(J>K"KA>K>KM$ Slide 4 "4IH$ 2

3 Comparison of Light-Commercial vehicle GHG standards Slide 5 Characteristics of Worldwide Standards Country/ Region Fuel Economy Regulated metric Attribute Form Fuel Consumption CO 2 /GHG Weight Footprint Class Continuous Bins European Union # X X X United States X X X X X Categories, classes, other provisions Eco-innovations, super-credits 2WD, AC credit, FFV/ E85, alternative fuels Japan X X X Averaging within bins China X X X X Canada X X X X Transmission, pervehicle limits à corporate average AC credits, alternative fuels South Korea* X X X X Eco-innovations Mexico X X X X India X X X #: CO 2 standards complemented by Air-conditioning, tyre pressure monitoring, gear-shift indicators etc.! * : FE/CO 2 standards include consideration for tyre pressure monitoring, gear-shift indicators! 6 3

4 7 EU 2015 and 2020 target curves 175 g CO2/km : T = *(M-1372) 2020: T = *(M-M0) Mass of the Vehicle in Running Order (kg) 8 4

5 Background: 2016 US Car and Truck Standards Separate CO 2 -indexed car and truck standards (with separate slopes)! By statute (EPCA 1975, EISA 7), NHTSA must set separate attribute-based car, truck standards! Assuming no shifts in fleet composition and no trading à -24% gco 2 e/mile from ! Cars and trucks would reduce gco 2 e/mile by 23% and 26%, respectively, from 8 to 2016.! Excluding 10.6 gco 2 /mile from AC credits, CO 2 reductions are 19% (cars) and 21% (truck)!!" # $%&'((')*$+,-%$./0&'1$ '##$ &"#$ &##$ %"#$ %##$!"#$ Average 8 car #9:$ Average 8 truck #;:$ %##*$+,-.$ %##*$/-0+1.$ %#!($+,-$/,-23/$ %#!($/-0+1$/,-23/$ &"$ '#$ '"$ "#$ ""$ (#$ ("$ )#$ 2%3'45%$6))-7+'*-$.8 # 1$ %%$ %"$ %4$ &'$ '%$ ""$ <=%5$%4)*)&>$.&7/1$,8%+$?0!$4+%@'-$ The equivalent lines for CAFE standards are slightly sloped (i.e., not perfectly linear) in fuel economy (mpg) space; note that EPA assumes some sales shift toward smaller car/trucks in 2016 timeframe in their analysis; in MY2012, 2WD SUVs shift from light truck to car category; the right y-axis is rated fuel economy after 10.6 g/mile A/C credits are utilized and 2025 US Cars and Light-Truck Standards 400 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (gco2e/mile) L-T 2017 Cars 2025 L-T 2025 Cars Footprint (Sq. Ft) 10 1 Sq. meter = Sq. feet 5

6 Japan s front runner weight-based fuel economy standards 30 Japan 2010, 2015 and 2020 Standards in JC08 km/l Fuel Economy in km/l (JC08 cycle) Vehicle Weight (kg) 11 China Phase III standards based on corporate averaging Fuel Consumption (l/100km) Dotted lines: Standards for automatic transmission, or more than two rows of seats Solid lines: Standards for manual transmission, and not more than two rows of seats Phase I (limit values) 4-5 Phase II (limit values) 6-9 Phase III, (Corporate Average Standard) Curb Weight (kg) 12 6

7 Canada standards harmonized with US GHG Emissions (gco 2 e/mile) L-T Target 2016 L-T Target 2012 Car Target 2016 Car Target Footprint (Sq. meter) 13 S. Korea has adopted dual FE and CO 2 standards for 2015, phase-in from CO 2 Emissions (g/km) average kg 2015 Standards line: CO2 = *(M ) 2015 target kg Curb Weight (kg) 14 7

8 Mexico plans to harmonize with US standards by 2016 CO 2 Emissions (gco 2 /km) Car Average, 3.73 m 2, 156 g/km 2011 L-T Average, 4.64 m 2, 228 g/km 2013 L-T Target 2016 L-T Target 2013 Car Target 2016 Car Target Footprint (Sq. meter) 15 India Proposed and standards. Manufacturers have asked to delay standards by one year. 10 Petrol Equivalent Fuel Consumption (l/100km) ~ 16% ~ 20% trendline Final Standard FC = *CAKW Final Standard FC = 0.002*CAKW ~ Five year payback ~ Two year payback Kerb Weight (kg) 8

9 Brazil 2017 INOVAR-AUTO Tax Incentive 240 CO 2 Emissions (E 22 FTP75 in g/km) Vehicle Mass (kg) 2017 INOVAR-AUTO Target MJ/km = *M ~ 146 g/km CO2 1% additional tax reduction MJ/km = *M ~ 140 g/km CO2 2% additional tax reduction MJ/km = *M ~ 135 g/km CO2 Note: All CO2 values measured on FTP (City) cycle. Equivalent combined city-highway values will be ~12% lower. 17 Developments in other countries/regions on fuel efficiency standards..! Australia is expected to unveil a regulatory impact assessment for 2015 and 2020 CO2 standards in December 2012! Vietnam has drafted fuel efficiency standards for passenger vehicles as well as 2-3 wheelers, and a draft notification is expected by December 2012 as well.! Russia and Indonesia will soon be the two of the largest markets without a fuel efficiency standards.! Slide 18 9

10 For more information ICCT Passenger Vehicles website: Global Passenger Vehicle Standards Update: US CAFE Standards: EU LDV CO 2 Regulation: Review and Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Policies to promote fuel economy: CO 2 Standards: Anup Bandivadekar anup at theicct.org John German John at theicct.org Peter Mock Peter at theicct.org Hui He Hui at theicct.org theicct Slide 19 10