scroogenomics: WHY YOU SHOULDN T BUY PRESENTS FOR THE HOLIDAYS

Transcription

1

2 scroogenomics: WHY YOU SHOULDN T BUY PRESENTS FOR THE HOLIDAYS

3 yields among gifts

4 how much spending? Retail Sales ( $ bil ) US Retail Sales, 2007 Non-Seasonally Adjusted (Jan + Nov) $65 billion jan apr jul oct jan apr2008 Date 379

5 ditto for 2006 Retail Sales ( $ bil ) US Retail Sales, 2006 Non-Seasonally Adjusted jan apr jul oct jan apr2007 Date

6 and 2005 Retail Sales ( $ bil ) US Retail Sales, 2005 Non-Seasonally Adjusted jan apr jul oct jan apr2006 Date

7 are we alone? Retail Sales Index Austria Belgium Denmark Finland jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan2008 France Germany Ireland Italy jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan2008 Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan2008 Graphs by icountry Western Europe and the US, 2007 Sweden United Kingdom United States Month

8 more company Retail Sales Index jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan2008 Graphs by icountry Eastern Europe and the US, 2007 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia Slovakia United States Month

9 santa claus gap? Russians overtake USA year Retail rel. to Jan and Nov

10 and still more company Retail Sales Index Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and the US, 2007 Brazil jan jul jan jan jul jan2008 South Africa 01jan jul jan jan jul jan2008 Month Graphs by icountry Mexico United States

11 China, Israel: no; Japan: yes Retail Sales Index China Israel Japan jan jul jan jan jul jan jan jul jan2008 Korea, South jan jul jan jan jul jan2008 Graphs by icountry Asia, Israel, and the US, 2007 United States Month

12 december bump: 2000s ember Retail Sales Bump, 2000s Hungary Italy Portugal Brazil Norway South Africa Finland Czech Republic Sweden United Kingdom Denmark Poland France Greece Mexico Austria Canada Australia Slovakia Spain United States Germany Belgium Netherlands Russia Japan New Zealand Ireland China Israel Korea, South ember rel to Adjacent Months

13 1990s ember Retail Sales Bump, 1990s Italy South Africa Hungary Norway Czech Republic Sweden Mexico Greece Portugal Finland France Denmark United Kingdom Canada Australia Austria Japan Spain United States Germany Belgium Poland Ireland New Zealand Netherlands China Russia Israel Korea, South ember rel to Adjacent Months

14 1980s ember Retail Sales Bump, 1980s Mexico Norway Sweden South Africa Austria Australia France Finland Japan Denmark United Kingdom Germany Canada United States Belgium Greece Ireland Netherlands Israel ember rel to Adjacent Months

15 Israel 1970s ember Retail Sales Bump, 1970s France Japan Finland South Africa Denmark Germany Australia Canada Greece United Kingdom Belgium United States Ireland Netherlands Austria Norway ember rel to Adjacent Months

16 Ireland Netherlands 1960s ember Retail Sales Bump, 1960s Finland Japan Germany Denmark South Africa Greece Australia United Kingdom Canada United States Belgium Austria Norway ember rel to Adjacent Months

17 gift yields in europe Givers in Europe 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% in-laws aunts, uncles grandparents parents siblings friends misc. significant other -5.0% gift - own purchase yield -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0% -40.0%

18 did our generation invent the vulgar commercialization of Xmas? Current Dollars Monthly Retail Sales, 1990s not seasonally adjusted 01jan jan jan jan jan jan2000 Date

19 Current Dollars Monthly Retail Sales, 1980s not seasonally adjusted 01jul jul jul jul jul1988 Date

20 Current Dollars Monthly Retail Sales, 1970s not seasonally adjusted 01jan jan jan jan jan jan jan1978 Date

21 and so on, back to the 1930s Yuletide Sales Bump Since year Excess over Nov Excess over Jan

22 even earlier: dime stores, 1919 Chain Ten Cent Stores Monthly Retail Sales Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr and early 1920

23 dime store bump, 1920s Dime Store Yuletide Bump rel to Nov rel to Jan

24 the shrinking xmas share Christmas Sales as a Share of the Economy Xmas/GDP year

25 clothing and shows food xmas is like Luxuries, Necessities, and Christmas: Evidence over Time other durable other services transportation housing household operation other nondurables furniture gas Christmas retail recreation motor vehicles medical care

26 old-fashioned xmas finance Christmas Club Deposits Jun-33 Sep Mar-34 Jun-34 Sep Mar-35 Jun-35 Sep Mar-36 Jun-36 Sep Mar-37 Jun-37 Sep Mar-38 Jun-38 Sep Mar-39 Jun-39 Sep Mar-40 Jun-40 Sep Mar-41 Jun-41 Sep $ millions

27 comes the credit card Revolving Credit ( $ bil ) Credit Card Debt Growth since jan jan jan jan jan2010 Date

28 spending and indebtedness Credit Card Debt Growth in 2007 and early 2008 Revolving Credit ( $ bil ) jan jul jan jul2008 Date

29 xmas plastic share Owed in ember ember Excess Debt/Xmas Retail Sales year Debt excess (above linear trend between September and the following March) relative to ember retail sales less October's.

30 still owed in Jan Still Owed in January January Excess Debt/Xmas Retail Sales year Debt excess (above linear trend between September and the following March) relative to ember retail sales less October's.

31 still owed in Feb Still Owed in February February Excess Debt/Xmas Retail Sales year Debt excess (above linear trend between September and the following March) relative to ember retail sales less October's.

32 gift cards and the january dropoff January Dropoff In Gift Card Era Sales: (-Jan)/ year

33 department store dropoff Sales: (-Jan)/ January Gen'l Merch Dropoff In Gift Card Era year

34 unequal world income Inter-Nation Lorenz Curve 2006 Cumulative Share of World Income Cumulative Share of World Pop

35 giving is a luxury activity Luxuries and Necessities: Current Expenditures cash contributions education entertainment transportation alcohol clothing personal care reading miscellaneous housing food health care pension

36 the end I wish you happy and efficient holidays

37