Logistics & Shipping - Strategic Impact on Global Chemical Industry Competitiveness

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1 Strategic Impact on Global Chemical Industry Competitiveness A Multi-Client Evaluation designed to deliver genuine Competitive Advantage to Subscribing Organisations June 2004 Nexant Chem Systems 1 st Floor South, Griffin House, 161 Hammersmith Road, London W6 8BS Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Drewry House, Meridian Gate 213 Marsh Wall, London E14 9FJ Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)

2 Contents Section Page 1 Executive Summary INTRODUCTION PETROCHEMICAL TRADE OUTLOOK SHIP DEMAND SHIP SUPPLY THE FREIGHT MARKET PORTS TRANSPORTATION COST OPTIONS SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS AND STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OVERALL CONCLUSIONS RECOMMENDATIONS Introduction OBJECTIVE OVERVIEW REGIONAL COVERAGE PRODUCT COVERAGE TYPES OF PRODUCT AND SHIPPING ARRANGEMENTS TIME PERIOD APPROACH GLOSSARY OF TERMS Petrochemical Trade Outlook INTRODUCTION MIDDLE EAST NORTH-EAST ASIA WESTERN EUROPE TRADE GRIDS CONCLUSIONS Ship Demand INTRODUCTION CHEMICAL PARCEL TANKERS LIQUEFIED GASES BULK SOLID CHEMICALS CONCLUSIONS i

3 5 Ship Supply INTRODUCTION CHEMICAL TANKERS FUTURE TRENDS IN OWNERSHIP LPG TANKERS CONTAINER VESSELS CONCLUSIONS The Freight Market INTRODUCTION BULK SOLID CHEMICALS BULK LIQUID CHEMICALS LIQUEFIED GASES CONCLUSION Ports INTRODUCTION KEY ASSUMPTIONS PORT SELECTION BELGIUM CHINA EGYPT INDIA INDONESIA IRAN JAPAN KUWAIT THE NETHERLANDS OMAN PHILIPPINES QATAR SAUDI ARABIA SINGAPORE SOUTH KOREA THAILAND UNITED ARAB EMIRATES CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ii

4 8 Transportation Cost Options INTRODUCTION CAPITAL COSTS VESSEL OPERATING COSTS VOYAGE COSTS THE TRANSPORTATION COST MODEL CONCLUSIONS Strategic Implications INTRODUCTION IMPACT ON COST OF DELIVERY OF MATERIALS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST STRUCTURAL AND POLITICAL RISK FACTORS STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Appendix Page A Inter-Regional Trade Distances... A-1 B Vessel Configurations... B-1 C Chemicals Classification... C-1 D Ports... D-1 iii

5 Figure Page 1.1 Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade Movements Middle East Bulk Solid Chemicals: Total Exports Bulk Liquid Chemicals : Net Trade Movement Bulk Liquid Chemicals: Total Exports Bulk Gases Net Trade Movements Bulk Gases: Total Exports Middle East Bulk Chemicals Trade Seaborne Trade in Bulk Liquids Petrochemical Liquid Exports from the Middle East : Development of World Container and General Cargo Trade Chemical Tanker Fleet Development Chemical Tanker Supply and Demand Balance Chemical Tanker Fleet Development Chemical Tanker Fleet by Owner LPG Fleet Development LPG Ship Supply and Demand Development of the Containership Fleet Ship Cost and Charter Type Relationships Spot Rates for Easy Chemicals Chemical Tanker Time Charter Rates Freight Rates: Arabian Gulf to Mumbai, Singapore and Ulsan Forecast Time Charter Rates, by Vessel Size Petrochemical Gas Rates Historic Gas Tanker Rates : Location of Ports Some of the Variables in a Logistics Strategy Bulk Solid Chemicals: Total Net Trade Bulk Liquid Chemicals: Total Net Trade Commercial and Industrial Ports in the Middle East China s Major Petrochemical Complexes Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade Movements Bulk Solid Chemicals : Total Exports Bulk Solid Chemicals : Total Exports Bulk Solid Chemicals: Total Exports iv

6 3.6 Bulk Liquid Chemicals : Net Trade Movement Bulk Liquid Chemicals : Total Exports Bulk Liquid Chemicals : Total Exports Bulk Liquid Chemicals: Total Exports Bulk Gases Net Trade Movements Bulk Gases : Total Exports Bulk Gases : Total Exports Bulk Gases: Total Exports Bulk Exports: Total Exports Middle East Bulk Chemicals Trade Middle East Bulk Chemicals Exports Middle East Bulk Chemicals Trade By Product Middle East Bulk Chemicals Trade By Region Middle East: Bulk Chemicals Total Net Trade North-East Asia: Bulk Chemicals Total Net Trade South-East Asia: Bulk Chemicals Total Net Trade Western Europe: Bulk Chemicals Total Net Trade Seaborne Trade in Bulk Liquids Petrochemical Exports from the Middle East Transportation Demand for Middle Eastern Petrochemical Exports by Destination : Seaborne Trade in Liquefied Gases from Middle East Global Net LPG Trade : Development of World Container and General Cargo Trade : Middle East Bulk Solid Chemicals Exports Destination of Bulk Solid Chemical Exports from the Middle East Cargo Tank Diagram: dwt Stolt Sapphire Class Parcel Tanker Chemical Tanker Fleet Development Chemical Tanker Fleet Age Profile Chemical Tanker Supply and Demand Balance Chemical Tanker Fleet Development Chemical Tanker Fleet by Owner ,000+ m3 LPG Tanker LPG Fleet Development LPG Fleet Development, by Size of Vessel LPG Ship Supply and Demand v

7 5.11 Ethylene Tanker Fleet Development, by Size of Vessel Development of the Containership Fleet Distribution of Containership Fleet by Size Containership Orderbook ( ) by Size Containership Fleet Development Ship Cost and Charter Type Relationships Forecast Average Freight Rates: Containers Spot Rates for Easy Chemicals Chemical Tanker Time Charter Rates Time Charter Rates by Vessel type and Deadweight, 1993 and Freight Rates: Arabian Gulf to Mumbai, Singapore and Ulsan Freight Rates: Arabian Gulf North-West Europe Forecast Time Charter Rates, by Vessel Size Petrochemical Gas Rates Historic Gas Tanker Rates Forecast Time Charter Rates : Location of Ports Port Locations in North-West Europe Relative Position of Antwerp versus Other Ports in North-West Europe Port of Antwerp Total Traffic Antwerp, Belgium : Port Locations in China, Japan and South Korea China s Major Petrochemical Complexes Port Locations in the Middle East Port Locations in India Port Locations in the Far East Port Locations in the Middle East Port Locations in North-East Asia Port Locations in the Middle East Port Locations in North-West Europe Port of Rotterdam Total Liquid Storage Rotterdam, Netherlands Total Throughput Rotterdam, Netherlands Port Locations in the Middle East Port Locations in the Far East Port Locations in the Middle East vi

8 7.21 Port Locations in the Middle East Port Locations in the Far East Total Cargo Throughput Singapore Port Locations in North-East Asia Port Locations in the Far East Port Locations in the Middle East Total Cargo Throughput Jebel Ali/Port Rashid : Indicative Operating Costs for an LPG Carrier Forecast Vessel Operating Costs: Chemical Tankers Forecast Vessel Operating Costs: LPG Tankers Bunker Prices Indicative Port Charges for Various Regions Bulk Solid Chemicals : Total Exports Bulk Solid Chemicals: Total Imports Bulk Solid Chemicals: Total Net Trade Bulk Liquid Chemicals : Total Exports Bulk Liquid Chemicals: Total Imports Bulk Liquid Chemicals: Total Net Trade Commercial and Industrial Ports in the Middle East Some of the Variables in a Logistics Strategy Spot Rates for Easy Chemicals vii

9 Table Page 1.1 Global Exports of Petrochemicals by Main Commodity, Forecast Inter-Regional Seaborne Trade in Petrochemicals Transportation Demand for Petrochemicals Petrochemical Exports from the Middle East: Transportation Demand by Destination Global Seaborne Trade in Liquefied Gases Transportation Demand for Petrochemical Gases Demand Generated by Middle Eastern Bulk Solid Chemical Exports Evolution of Empty Container Movements Structure of the Regional Chemical Fleets Development of Average Container Freight Rates Forecast Average Freight Rates : Containers Annual Spot Rates for Easy Chemicals, Historic Chemical Tanker Time Charter Rates Forecast Time Charter Rates Parcel Chemical Tankers Importing and Exporting Ports Composition of Ship Costs Chemical Tanker - Indicative Operating Costs Product Coverage Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Saudi Arabia Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Saudi Arabia Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Saudi Arabia Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Saudi Arabia Chemical Gases Capacity: Saudi Arabia Chemical Gases Net Trade: Saudi Arabia Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Qatar Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Qatar Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Qatar Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Qatar Chemical Gases Capacity: Qatar Chemical Gases Net Trade: Qatar Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Kuwait Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Kuwait Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Kuwait viii

10 3.16 Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Kuwait Chemical Gases Capacity: Kuwait Planned Olefins Projects: Iran Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Iran Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Iran Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Iran Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Iran Chemical Gases Capacity: Iran Chemical Gases Net Trade: Iran Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: United Arab Emirates Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: United Arab Emirates Chemical Gases Capacity: United Arab Emirates Chemical Gases Net Trade: United Arab Emirates Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Turkey Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Turkey Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Turkey Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Turkey Chemical Gases Capacity: Turkey Chemical Gases Net Trade: Turkey Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Egypt Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Egypt Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Egypt Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Egypt Chemical Gases Capacity: Chemical Gases Net Trade: Egypt Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Other Middle East Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Other Middle East Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Other Middle East Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Other Middle East Chemical Gases Capacity: Other Middle East Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Total Middle East Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Total Middle East Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Total Middle East Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Total Middle East Chemical Gases Capacity: Total Middle East Chemical Gases Net Trade: Total Middle East ix

11 3.52 Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: India Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: India Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: India Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: India Chemical Gases Capacity: India Chemical Gases Net Trade: India Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Thailand Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Thailand Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Thailand Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Thailand Chemical Gases Capacity: Thailand Chemical Gases Net Trade: Thailand Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Singapore Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Singapore Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Singapore Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Singapore Chemical Gases Capacity: Singapore Chemical Gases Net Trade: Singapore Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Indonesia Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Indonesia Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Indonesia Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Indonesia Chemical Gases Capacity: Indonesia Chemical Gases Net Trade: Indonesia Bulk Solid Chemicals: Capacity Malaysia Bulk Solid Chemicals: Net Trade Malaysia Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Malaysia Bulk Liquid Chemicals: Net Trade: Malaysia Chemical Gases Capacity: Malaysia Chemical Gases Net Trade: Malaysia Proposed Joint Ventures Petrochemical Projects Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: China Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: China Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: China Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: China Chemical Gases Capacity: China x

12 3.88 Chemical Gases Net Trade: China Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: South Korea Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: South Korea Liquid Chemicals Capacity: South Korea Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: South Korea Chemical Gases Capacity: South Korea Chemical Gases Net Trade: South Korea Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Taiwan Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Taiwan Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Taiwan Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Taiwan Chemical Gases Capacity: Taiwan Chemical Gases Net Trade: Taiwan Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Japan Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Japan Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Japan Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Japan Chemical Gases Capacity: Japan Chemical Gases Net Trade: Japan Bulk Solid Chemicals Capacities: Western Europe Bulk Solid Chemicals Net Trade: Western Europe Bulk Liquid Chemicals Capacity: Western Europe Bulk Liquid Chemicals Net Trade: Western Europe Chemical Gases Capacity: Western Europe Chemical Gases Net Trade: Western Europe Trade Grid for LDPE: Trade Grid for LDPE: Trade Grid for HDPE: Trade Grid for HDPE: Trade Grid for LLDPE: Trade Grid for LLDPE: Trade Grid for Polypropylene: Trade Grid for Polypropylene: Trade Grid for Ethylene: Trade Grid for Ethylene: Trade Grid for Propylene: xi

13 3.124 Trade Grid for Propylene: Trade Grid for Methanol: Trade Grid for Methanol: Trade Grid for MEG: Trade Grid for MEG: Trade Grid for Benzene: Trade Grid for Benzene: Trade Grid for Styrene: Trade Grid for Styrene: Trade Grid for PVC: Trade Grid for PVC: Trade Grid for VCM: Trade Grid for VCM: Trade Grid for EDC: Trade Grid for EDC: Trade Grid for Para-xylene: Trade Grid for Para-xylene: Seaborne Trade in Bulk Liquids, Global Exports of Petrochemicals by Main Commodity, Forecast Inter-Regional Seaborne Trade in Petrochemicals Transportation Demand for Petrochemicals Petrochemical Exports from the Middle East: Transportation Demand by Destination Global Seaborne Trade in Liquefied Gases Transportation Demand for Petrochemical Gases Demand Generated by Middle Eastern Bulk Solid Chemical Exports Evolution of Empty Container Movements Chemical Tanker Orderbook and Delivery Schedule Historic and Forecast Chemical Tanker Fleet Development Ownership of the Ocean Chemicals Fleet, Structure of the Regional Chemical Fleets Ownership of the Oil/Chemical Tanker Fleet Ownership of the Time Charter Fleet Ownership of the Specialist Fleet LPG Tanker Delivery Schedule, by Size of Vessel LPG Fleet Development, (1) xii

14 5.10 Ethylene Fleet End Period Ethylene Tanker Orderbook Ethylene Tanker Fleet Development, (1) World Containership Fleet by Size Range Containership Orderbook by Size and Scheduled Year of Delivery Forecast Containership Fleet Development Top 30 Global Containership Operators Development of Average Freight Rates Forecast Average Freight Rates : Containers Annual Spot Rates for Easy Chemicals, Historic Chemical Tanker Time Charter Rates Forecast Time Charter Rates Parcel Chemical Tankers LPG Spot Freight Rates: Small Sizes Ethylene and Propylene Spot Rates Butadiene and VCM Spot Freight Rates LPG Tanker Time Charter Freight Rates, Basis 6-12 Month Period Forecast Time Charter Rates LPG Tankers Liquid Berth Capacity Assumptions Importing and Exporting Ports Cranes Antwerp, Belgium Container Storage Antwerp, Belgium Special Storage Antwerp, Belgium Tank Storage Antwerp, Belgium Cranes Hong Kong, China Storage Hong Kong, China Storage Shanghai, China Cranes Shanghai, China Cranes Suez, Egypt Storage Areas Suez, Egypt Cranes Damietta, Egypt Storage Areas Damietta, Egypt Storage Mumbai, India Cranes Mumbai, India Storage Jawaharlal Nehru, India Cranes Jawaharlal Nehru, India Storage Kandla, India xiii

15 7.20 Cranes Kandla, India Cranes Bandar Imam, Iran Storage Areas Bandar Imam, Iran Cranes Yokohama, Japan Container Storage Yokohama, Japan Tank Storage Yokohama, Japan Cranes Shuaiba, Kuwait Storage Shuaiba, Kuwait Cranes Rotterdam, Netherlands Liquid Storage Rotterdam, Netherlands Independent Liquid Storage Rotterdam, Netherlands Covered Storage Rotterdam, Netherlands Cranes Salalah, Oman Cranes Batangas, Philippines General Cargo Storage Areas Mesaieed, Qatar Cranes KFIP, Yanbu, Saudi Arabia Storage Areas KFIP, Yanbu, Saudi Arabia Cranes Yanbu Commercial Port, Saudi Arabia Storage Yanbu Commercial Port, Saudi Arabia Cranes (North) Jeddah Islamic Port, Saudi Arabia Storage Areas (North) Jeddah Islamic Port, Saudi Arabia Cranes (South) Jeddah Islamic Port, Saudi Arabia Storage Area (South) Jeddah Islamic Port, Saudi Arabia Cranes KAP, Dammam, Saudi Arabia Storage Areas KAP, Dammam, Saudi Arabia Storage Areas Jubail Commercial Port, Saudi Arabia Cranes Jubail Commercial Port, Saudi Arabia Cranes - Singapore Storage Singapore Storage Pusan, South Korea Cranes Inchon, South Korea Cranes Ruwais, UAE Container Storage Areas Jebel Ali, UAE Cranes Jebel Ali, UAE General Cargo Storage Areas Jebel Ali, UAE Container Storage Areas Port Rashid, UAE xiv

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