Adding Value to the Bakken NGLs

Transcription

1 Adding Value to the Bakken NGLs The Williston Basin Petroleum Conference Don Bari, Vice President, Technology and Analytics Groups IHS Chemical May 21, 2014 Bismarck, North Dakota 1

2 Who is IHS? We are a public company (founded in the 1950s) and have a current revenue of over US $ 2 billion We help companies make informed decisions by providing independent: industry insight knowledge data & analysis 2

3 IHS Has Strong Industry Integration We have 9000 staff in 30 countries Healthcare Transportation Military & Security Financial Power & Utilities Energy Oil & Gas IHS Chemical Aerospace & Defense Automotive Agriculture Consumer & Retail Metals & Mining Government Construction Electronics & Telecom Shipping 3

4 IHS Chemical IHS Chemical brings together over 60 years of insight through 3 world-class legacy brands IHS Chemical CMAI SRI Consulting Chemical Week

5 We Think Value Chains: Vertically & Horizontally Chemical industry development starts here Oil, Gas Production Hydrocarbon Feed Building Block Chemicals Derivatives & Intermediates Plastics & Rubber You Retail Manufactured Goods Converters: Tires and Other Fabricated OEM Parts 5

6 The Fabricated Products are Diverse and Familiar 6

7 Why is There an Opportunity to Add Value to the Bakken s Hydrocarbons? Methane Ethane (Fuel Gas) Ethane, Propane, Butane, Light Naphtha (NGL) Global Gas Demand (2013) 120 TCF Bakken has a very rich NGL composition at 30% as compared to a more typical 8% Petrochemical Industry 25% Oil, coal and methane- based feedstocks make up the rest 7

8 The Feedstock-Products Value Chain To be Advantaged here, You need to be advantaged here Ethane, Propane, Butanes Intermediate Chemicals Commodities & Specialties End-Use & Fabricated Products Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) 8

9 Fundamentally, the Industry Cost Curve Dictates Success COST OF PRODUCTION PRICE POINT Have Advantages along the Value Chain: Low Cost Feedstock Competitive Production Costs Good Logistical Proximity to the Market Need to be Here, to get Here PRODUCTION PLANTS DEMAND CUMULATIVE INDUSTRY CAPACITY 9

10 Case Studies of Likely Value-Add Opportunities for the Bakken Currently to Pipeline and Fuels Ethane, Propane, Butanes Intermediate Chemicals Commodities Specialties End-Use & Fabricated Products Ethane C 2 Ethylene HDPE Resin Propane C 3 n-butane C 4 Propylene Butadiene PP Resin PB Rubber For the Consumer, Automotive, Construction Industries Isobutane C 4 Isobutylene PIB Rubber 10

11 Bakken NGL is Expected to Have an Advantaged Feedstock Position Even with IHS conservative estimates, the availability situation for competitivescale petrochemical plant is promising The U.S. NGL supply demand outlook and resultant market prices are forecast to give a Bakken-based NGLs a strong feedstock to derivative chemical plants 11

12 Nearly 50% of US Polyethylene Demand is in Good Proximity to a North Dakota Plant West Canada 1% Pacific Potential Production Hub West North Central 6% East Canada 5% East Ottawa North Toronto Central Montreal New England 4% 4% 1% 35% 21% Mid Atlantic Mountain 6% West South Central 3% East South Central South Atlantic 14% POLYETHYLENE Production Hub Most the production is centered in the Gulf Cost 12

13 Advantages for the North Dakota Translate in Value-Add Opportunities Other Petrochemical Case Studies Ethylene & HDPE Butadiene % PBR Butadiene Merchant Propylene & PP Ethylene & MEG Propylene Merchant Developing Technologies Mature Technology Multiple Products Mature Technology Single Product 13

14 The Value of a Basic Feedstock Typically Increases Down the Supply Chain Ethane, Propane, Butanes Intermediate Chemicals Commodities Specialties End-Use & Fabricated Products Ethane Ethylene HDPE Volume (T) Value ($/T) 197 (27c/gal) Contained Ethane Equivalent Value in product ($/T) Capital and operating cost at each step generate the value increase Capacity (KT/YR) 27,500 bpd (880MM lb/y) Investment (MM USD) Return IRR (%) 21% 24% 14

15 To Be Successful, Project Development Must Execute all the Fundamental Aspects EXECUTION Project Management THE PROJECT Technology Licensor and/or Developer FINANCING Strategic and/or Private Equity EPC Contractor Owners & Sponsors Debt MANUFACTURING Feedstock Supply/Logistics Product Offtake Co-Product Offtake ALIGNMENT State (Federal) Policy, Social & Regulatory Aspects UTILITIES & SERVICES Utilities Site Services Infrastructure 15

16 Conclusions There are feasible opportunities for the development of NGL-based chemicals and derivatives There will be need for additional supply of U.S. based petrochemicals NorthDakotaisexpectedtohaveanamplesupplyof NGLs to feed competitive-scale chemical plants North Dakota has an advantaged priced feedstock (NGLs) relative to the U.S.G.C. and Asia/Europe North Dakota product rail cost is competitive to supply mid US customers Project and business development success can yield a variety of benefits to North Dakota 16

17 Cautions Investment (cost and labor resources) are very significant to construct downstream chemical production plants (and build their associated businesses) Project development and implementation (including market entry) will have challenges To be successful, North Dakota will likely need to solicit world-class chemical industry participants and stakeholders 17

18 Adding Value to the Bakken NGLs Thank You! 18