Models, IEAs and Monitoring
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1 Models, IEAs and Monitoring Phil Levin and Isaac Kaplan Northwest Fisheries Science Center with thanks to our colleagues: Mike Fogarty, Tony Smith, Beth Fulton and Rachel Finley
2 Outline What is an IEA? Need, definition, dimensions and process How can ecosystem models inform IEAs?
3 What is an Ecosystem Approach to Management? An ecosystem approach to management is one that provides a comprehensive framework for marine and coastal resource decision making EAM considers a wide range of relevant ecological, environmental, and human factors bearing on societal choices regarding resource use. NOAA EGT
4 IEAs are a critical element of an EAM strategy An IEA is a synthesis and quantitative analysis of information on relevant physical, chemical, ecological and human processes in relation to specified ecosystem management objectives.
5 CHALLENGES to NOAA served by IEAs Provide scientific support consistent with NOAA s mission requirements for coastal resource management Implement ecosystem approaches to management that consider multiple influences and outcomes Communicate with the public, regulators, legislators, and other agencies and partners the current state of marine ecosystems, pressures they face, and the potential impacts of management options Synthesize knowledge about marine ecosystems in relation to human activities, recognize gaps, and improve understanding.
6 An IEA addresses 5 dimensions: Status of the topic being considered Causes and consequences of the status Forecast of future status with and without management action Costs and benefits of possible management actions Evaluation of past management actions success or failure.
7 A successful IEA: Responds to policy relevant questions Quantitatively identifies uncertainties in existing data and information Includes public participation and peer review Integrates data across multiple disciplines Uses existing high-quality data and information Forecasts future conditions and outcomes.
8 Scoping Identify goals of EBM and threats to achieving goals Develop ecosystem indicators and targets Risk Analysis Data Acquisition Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators Characterization of susceptibility to perturbation Characterization of resiliency to perturbation Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EBM goals Management Actions
9 Scoping Identify goals of EBM and threats to achieving goals Develop ecosystem indicators and targets Risk Analysis Data Acquisition Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators Characterization of susceptibility to perturbation Characterization of resiliency to perturbation Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EBM goals Management Actions
10 Two faces of Ecosystem Management Goal Foster multiple human uses, subject to environmental constraints Key principles Sustained yield Minimize environmental impacts Consider socioeconomic costs Public involvement Goal Promote ecological integrity while allowing human use Key principles Focus interactions dominated by biotic elements Build resilience in biological and economic systems Collaborative with stakeholders
11 Scoping Identify goals of EBM and threats to achieving goals Develop ecosystem indicators and targets Risk Analysis Data Acquisition Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators Characterization of susceptibility to perturbation Characterization of resiliency to perturbation Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EBM goals Management Actions
12 Ecosystem Indicators The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response Framework Driver Result in system change that in turn exert pressures on components of the system Anthropogenic Human Population Size in the Coastal Zone Per Capita Seafood Demand Water-dependent international trade Coastal Development Natural Temperature Precipitation Winds Ice Cover
13 Ecosystem Indicators The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response Framework Driver Pressure Factors that map to specific drivers Anthropogenic Fishing Effort Habitat Loss/Degradation Pollution Marine Transportation Effluent Discharges Oil and hazardous material spills Natural Extent of Thermal Habitat Nutrient Regeneration
14 Ecosystem Indicators The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response Framework Driver Pressure State Indicators of the condition of the environment Anthropogenic Natural Commercial Fishery Landings Recreational Fishery Landings Aquaculture/Fish Farming Production Water quality Chlorophyll Concentration Zooplankton Biomass Benthic Biomass Shellfish Biomass Fish Biomass Harmful Algal Blooms
15 Scoping Identify goals of EBM and threats to achieving goals Develop ecosystem indicators and targets Risk Analysis Data Acquisition Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators Characterization of susceptibility to perturbation Characterization of resiliency to perturbation Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EBM goals Management Actions
16 Risk Assessment Product
17 Example Risk Assessment Product Habitat in Australia, courtesy Beth Fulton CSIRO Rare ascidian bed (restricted, low productivity) Reef outcrops (low encounter rate) Risk: low medium high Soft (infauna) Epifauna (removable, high encounter rate)
18 Scoping Identify goals of EBM and threats to achieving goals Develop ecosystem indicators and targets Risk Analysis Data Acquisition Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators Characterization of susceptibility to perturbation Characterization of resiliency to perturbation Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EBM goals Management Actions
19 Ecosystem Indicators Impacts comprise measures of the effect of change Driver in state variables Medium High Risk Pressure Impacts are measured with respect to management reference points Anthropogenic Loss in Fishery Yield Loss in Aquaculture Production Recreational Impact Income Losses Non-indigenous species Natural State Loss in Biodiversity Impacts on trophic structure Risk Assessment Low Risk Status Quo
20 Ecosystem Indicators Driver Pressure Management Actions State Impact Medium High Risk Risk Assessment Low Risk Status Quo
21 Scoping Identify goals of EBM and threats to achieving goals Develop ecosystem indicators and targets Risk Analysis Data Acquisition Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators Characterization of susceptibility to perturbation Characterization of resiliency to perturbation Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EBM goals Management Actions
22 Outline What is an IEA? Need, definition, dimensions and process How can ecosystem models inform IEAs?
23 Test Monitoring Strategies Test Monitoring Strategies Scoping Identify goals of EBM and threats to achieving goals Develop ecosystem indicators and targets Ecosystem Models can help Test Potential Indicators Data Acquisition Risk Analysis Characterization of susceptibility to perturbation Characterization of resiliency to perturbation Simulate Perturbations Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EBM goals Inform Management Targets Management Actions Simulate Actions
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26 Testing Ecosystem Indicators Force changes Ecosystem Pressure (e.g., temperature) or Ecosystem Attribute of interest (trophic structure) 1.2 Ecosystem Attribute of Interest Time
27 Attribute and Indicator Attribute Time
28 1.2 1 Attribute and Indicator Time Indicator Attribute
29 Indicator Attribute and Indicator Attribute 1 Indicator Attribute Time
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