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1 Evaluating & predicting impacts of globally invasive freshwater fishes using multi-population comparisons Sunčica Avlijaš*, Nicholas Mandrak, Jonathan Fischer-Rush, Anthony Ricciardi

2 THE PROBLEM Context-dependency of invasion? SITE A SITE C SITE B 1

3 THE PROBLEM Predicting Establishment 1

4 THE PROBLEM Predicting Impacts SITE A SITE C SITE B 1

5 INTRODUCTION Large-scale geographic comparisons 2

6 OUTLINE Evaluating & Predicting Impacts 1- Tench as a model species 2- Quantifying impacts of Tench and Round Goby in the St. Lawrence River 3- Predicting Invasion patterns using morphometric analysis 3

7 MODEL SPECIES Tench (Tinca tinca) 4 Countries with at least one system invaded by Tench

8 MODEL SPECIES Tench Impacts turbidity trout macrophytes Common Carp molluscs periphyton pathogenic cestode 5 (Schallenberg & Sorrell 2009, Brönmark 1994, Innal & Erk akan 2006, Washington Fish & Wildlife 2014, Marcogliese et al. 2009)

9 MODEL SPECIES Tench Impacts HYPOTHESIZED COMPETITION (diet overlap studies) Copper Redhorse waterfowl European Eel 6 European Perch Rudd (Giles et al. 1990, Kennedy and Fitzmaur 1970, Masson et al. 2013)

10 METHODS Quantifying impacts of Tench and Round Goby on resident fish communities in the St. Lawrence River Tench Round Goby 7 (A) Historical analysis: pre-invasion versus post-invasion (B) Spatial analysis: invaded versus uninvaded (C) Diet study: identify potential competitors (D) FR Experiments: per capita effects``

11 METHODS St. Lawrence River Historical Data Montreal-Sorel Lac Saint-Louis Lac Saint-Pierre Grondines Saint-Nicolas Becancour-Batiscan Sampled by sector: 1995-present One sector/ year Gill nets Seine nets Archipelago du Lac Saint-Pierre Lac Saint-François 8

12 # of Tench SPREAD Round Goby and Tench in the St. Lawrence Tench captures by commercial fishermen in Lac St. Pierre Year 9

13 RESULTS Have fish communities changed after these invasions? Lac Saint-François 10

14 RESULTS Have fish communities changed after these invasions? Lac Saint-Louis 10

15 RESULTS Have fish communities changed after these invasions? Archipelago du Lac Saint-Pierre 10

16 RESULTS Have fish communities changed after these invasions? Lac Saint-Pierre 10

17 RESULTS Have fish communities changed after these invasions? Becancour-Batiscan 10

18 NEXT STEP Field study: invaded vs. uninvaded Legend 11 Sites sampled in the St. Lawrence River 2015

19 Quantifying impacts Tench Round Goby 11 (A) Historical analysis: pre-invasion versus post-invasion (B) Spatial analysis: invaded versus uninvaded (C) Diet study: identify potential competitors (D) FR Experiments: per capita effects

20 MORPHOMETRICS Forecasting Impact using Morphometric analysis Data sources: archived collections & field photographs 12

21 MORPHOMETRICS Morphometrics of native & non-native fishes in three South African rivers 13

22 FORECASTING Morphometrics of native & non-native fishes in the Olifants River (S. Africa) Olifants River K t Introduced species Tench 14

23 FORECASTING Morphometrics of native & non-native fishes in the Olifants River (S. Africa) Olifants River 15 K t Introduced species Tench Ha: Impact increases with distinctiveness (e.g. novel predator) Hb: Impact increases with similarity (e.g. competition, hybridization)

24 SUMMARY Predicting Impacts Quantify Impact under different contexts Compare impact across disparate sites: Relate abundance and per-capita effects to abiotic variables (Field surveys & Functional response experiments) Incorporate effect of recipient community context (Morphometrics) 16

25 THANK YOU Acknowledgements Ricciardi Lab Olaf Weyl, Darragh Woodford, Rowshyra Castaneda, Steven Crookes. 17

26 SPREAD Tench in North America 9

27 Chapter 3 (c) Diet overlap (H 1 ) Competition Tench, Round Goby & co-occurring fishes: stomach content ID quantify overlap Identify potential competition Correlate to declines (in a & b) 19

28 Prey consumed Prey consumed Chapter 3 (d) Functional response experiments Fr experiments comparing per capita effects of invasive and native fishes under varying environmental parameters E.g. DO, Specific Conductivity, turbidity High DO Low DO Prey density offered Native competitor Round Goby Prey density offered Tench 20

29 Invader abundance Shape space: modeling biotic interactions very abundant occasional to common; never very abundant rare native species Morpho space overlap high overlap Niche utilization is constrained by phenotype 14 (Azzurro et al in Ecology Letters)

30 XI Chapter 5 Bower and Piller 2015, Journal of fish biology Morpho shape predicts trophic guild No correlation of shape with substrate or stream depth Found a correlation between flow and shape Weak correlation between depth and shape (in non-stream fishes)

31 XII Chapter 5 Oliveira et al. 2010, Neotropical Ichthyology Strong correlation to trophic guild Poor correlation with habitat

32 XIII Smith et al. 2015, Evolutionary Biology Chapter 5 Comparison of centrarchids Found no correlation between habitat (pelagic vs benthic) and shape Strong correlation between shape and diet

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