NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolFloridaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters. March2016

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1 NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolFloridaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters March2016

2 How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Florida Poll of 2,853 Adults This survey of 2,853 adults was conducted March 4 th through March 10 th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Florida were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of Florida from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection and L2 for voter registration information. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region except for race, which is from the 2010 census. Results are statistically significant within ±1.8 percentage points. There are 2,422 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.0 percentage points. Among registered voters, 884 had a phone match in the voter file and 1,538 did not. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points and ±2.5 percentage points, respectively. There are 826 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in Florida includes all registered Republicans. There are 892 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in Florida includes all registered Democrats. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points and ±3.3 percentage points, respectively. There are 511 likely Republican primary voters and 500 likely Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Florida Republican/Democratic Presidential Primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±4.3 percentage points and ±4.4 percentage points, respectively. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida March

3 Florida Adults NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters Nature of the Sample - Florida Florida Adults Florida Registered Voters Col % Col % Florida Registered Voters Florida Potential Republican Electorate Florida Likely Republican Primary Voters 1 2 Florida Potential Democratic Electorate 3 3 Florida Likely Democratic Primary Voters 2 2 Party Registration Democrat n/a 3 Republican n/a 3 Independent n/a 2 Party Identification Democrat n/a 3 Republican n/a Independent n/a 3 Other n/a Political Ideology Very liberal n/a Liberal n/a 2 n/a 3 Conservative n/a 2 Very conservative n/a Tea Party Supporters n/a 2 Men 4 4 Women 5 5 Under or older to to to or older 3 White 6 6 African American 1 1 Latino 2 1 Other North/Panhandle 1 1 Orlando/Central Atlantic Coast 1 1 Tampa Bay Area 1 1 Gulf Coast/Mid-Florida 1 1 Miami/Gold Coast/Keys 2 Household Income Less than $50, $50,000 or more 4 5 Not college graduate 6 5 College graduate 3 4 Marital Status Married 4 4 Not married 5 5 Evangelical Christian Yes 3 3 No 6 6 White Evangelical Christians 2 Practice a Religion 4 5 Does not Practice a Religion 5 5 U.S. Military Veteran Yes 1 1 No 8 8 Florida Voter Registration List Match n/a 3 No Match n/a 6 Interview Type Landline 3 4 Cell Phone 6 5 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida Adults. Interviews conducted March 4th through March 10th, 2016, n=2853 MOE +/- 1.8 percentage points. Florida Registered Voters: n=2422 MOE +/- 2.0 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. 10 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida March

4 Florida Potential Republican Electorate Florida Likely Republican Primary Voters Florida Potential Republican Electorate Florida Likely Republican Primary Voters Col % Col % Party Registration Republican Party Identification Past Participation* Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran Florida Voter Registration List Interview Type Nature of the Sample - Florida Democrat Republican 7 7 Independent 1 1 Other Yes 8 9 No 1 Very liberal Liberal 2 2 Conservative 4 4 Very conservative Men 5 5 Women 5 4 Under or older to to to or older 4 4 White 8 8 African American Latino 1 1 Other North/Panhandle 2 Orlando/Central Atlantic Coast 1 1 Tampa Bay Area 1 1 Gulf Coast/Mid-Florida 2 2 Miami/Gold Coast/Keys 1 Less than $50, $50,000 or more 5 6 Not college graduate 5 5 College graduate 4 4 Married 5 5 Not married 4 4 Yes 4 4 No Practice a Religion 5 5 Does not Practice a Religion 4 4 Yes 1 1 No 8 8 Match 4 4 No Match 5 5 Landline 4 4 Cell Phone 5 5 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida Potential Republican Electorate. Interviews conducted March 4th through March 10th, 2016, n=826 MOE +/- 3.4 percentage points. Florida Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=511 MOE +/- 4.3 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida March

5 DonaldTrump MarcoRubio TedCruz JohnKasich Other Undecided LikelyRepublicanPrimary Voters FloridaLikelyRepublican PrimaryVoters IntensityofSupport Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport PartyIdentification Republican Independent Conservative-Very conservative Conservative Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters North/Panhandle Orlando/CentralAtlantic Coast TampaBayArea GulfCoast/Mid-Florida Miami/GoldCoast/Keys HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate White Non-white Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelical Christians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion StateVoterRegistrationList Match NoMatch InterviewType Landline CelPhone FloridaRepublicanpresidentialprimaryincludingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidateorvotedabsentee NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolFloridaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedMarch4ththroughMarch10th,2016,n=511MOE+/-4.3percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 dueto rounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida March

6 Wouldyousayyoustronglysupport<candidate>,somewhatsupport<candidate>,ordoyouthinkyoumightvotediferentlyon PrimaryDay? Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Mightvotediferently Unsure RepublicanLikelyVoters FloridaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters withacandidatepreference 6 2 DonaldTrump 7 PrimarySupport MarcoRubio 5 3 TedCruz 6 2 Republican 7 PartyIdentification Independent Conservative-Veryconservative 7 TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters 6 North/Panhandle 6 2 Orlando/CentralAtlanticCoast 6 3 TampaBayArea 5 3 GulfCoast/Mid-Florida 7 1 Miami/GoldCoast/Keys 6 2 Lessthan$50, HouseholdIncome $50,000ormore 6 Notcolegegraduate 6 2 Colegegraduate 6 2 White 6 2 Non-white 6 2 Under orolder 6 2 Men 6 2 Women 6 2 Maried 6 2 MaritalStatus Notmaried 6 2 WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelicalChristians 6 2 PracticeaReligion 6 2 DoesnotPracticeaReligion 6 Yes 6 2 U.S.MilitaryVeteran No 6 2 Landline 6 2 InterviewType CelPhone 6 NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolFloridaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoterswithaCandidatePreferenceincludingabsentee.InterviewsconductedMarch4ththroughMarch10th,2016,n=448MOE+/-4.6percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida March

7 Whoisyoursecondchoiceforthe2016Republicanpresidentialprimary[includingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidate]? TedCruz MarcoRubio JohnKasich DonaldTrump Other Undecided RepublicanLikelyVoters FloridaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters withacandidatepreference DonaldTrump PrimarySupport MarcoRubio 4 1 TedCruz 4 1 Republican 2 1 PartyIdentification Independent Conservative-Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters Lessthan$50, HouseholdIncome $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate Under orolder 1 1 Men Women Maried MaritalStatus Notmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelicalChristians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion 2 1 Match StateVoterRegistrationList NoMatch Landline InterviewType CelPhone NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolFloridaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoterswithaCandidatePreference.InterviewsconductedMarch4ththroughMarch10th,2016,n=337MOE+/-5.3percentagepoints.Totalsmaynot addto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida March

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