German Outbound Market Air Passenger Trends

Transcription

1 German Outbound Market Air Passenger Trends Moving Year & Forward Looking March to August 2016 March 2016 Applied traveler operational intelligence to support tactical business decisions

2 German Outbound Market Overview Moving Year & Forward Looking March to August 2016 Terror-related Events and Health Emergency Worrying the Market German outbound market was up 1.4% during the moving Year : Europe received 55% of the total German international arrivals, while the Americas and Asia Pacific welcomed 18% respectively. Forward looking March to August 2016 German market situation: Europe has been suffering from a lack of bookings, worsened by the attacks in Paris; the Americas has seen fewer bookings particularly for Easter and Spring holidays from the German market, partly due to the Zika outbreak in South America and a strong dollar. %Var. Of International Arrivals from Germany to Each Region. (Mar 1 st 2015 to Feb 27 th 2016 vs. Prev. Year; Mar 1 st to Aug 31 st 2016 vs based on issued bookings as of 28 th Feb 2016) Total Int l Europe The Americas Asia Pacific Africa & Middle East OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB +1.4% -7.8% +0.7% -15.1% -0.6% -1.7% +4.6% +2.5% +3.5% +0.2% Terror-related Events (2) Zika Outbreak (1) 2 (1) Jan 15 th and Feb 1 st 2016 CDC and WHO alerts. (2) Nov 13 th Paris attacks; Nov 21 st Brussels security lockdown; Geographical category follows UNWTO definition. Jan 12 th Istanbul bombs.

3 Top 10 Destinations in Asia Pacific for German Market Moving Year Growth in Leisure Market Supports APAC Destinations Among the leading destinations in Asia Pacific, leisure destinations Thailand and Sri Lanka welcomed a good increase of 9% of total German arrivals year on year; traditionally more-business-oriented destinations Singapore and Japan both enjoyed double-digit growth in their German leisure segment. Top 10 Destinations in Asia Pacific for German Long-Haul Outbound Moving Year (%Var. of Total German Arrivals; %Share of Total German Arrivals in Asia Pacific and %Share of Pax Profile in current moving year; current moving year 1 st Mar 2015 to 27 th Feb 2016 vs. Prev. Year) 3 German Arrivals in APAC: +4.6%

4 Forward Looking German Leisure Long-haul Outbound March to August 2016 Early Demand Strong for Summer Holiday & New Destinations Forward Bookings for long-haul leisure outbound from Germany are only strong for July, when the summer holiday begins. Among the top destinations, Cuba and Namibia rise over 50%; Cuba benefits from a more stable relationship with Western countries and Namibia gets bookings from those avoiding political unrest in South Africa. Morocco saw a drop of over 60% in forward bookings, due to the safety and security concerns within the region (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia terrorist attacks and migrant issues). China sees weaker demand from Germany after the Easter peak. %Var. of German Leisure Long-haul Outbound on the Book for 1 st March to 31 st August 2016 (Monthly %Var vs. Prev. Year; bookings as of 28 th Feb 2016) Top Destinations on the Book for German Leisure Long-haul Outbound (%Var of Total OTB vs. Prev. Year; bookings as of 28 th Feb 2016) -2.9% USA -5.6% 17.5% UAE Thailand 1.1% 6.1% Canada 17.8% Vietnam 5.8% 0.2% South Africa 8.0% Cuba 61.6% -6.2% -8.2% -9.5% -9.6% Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Namibia Morocco China Japan -60.8% -23.6% 59.1% 24.5% India 30.5% 4 Total German Arrivals in Asia on the Book: -2.9%

5 Methodology and Glossary This analysis is based on Air Reservation Data property of ForwardKeys as of 1 st March Database contains reservations handled by more than online and offline travel agencies worldwide. Database updated as of 28 th February Perimeter: Destination: Worldwide Source Market: Germany Period: Arrival History: 1 st March 2015 to 27 th February Arrivals on the book: Arrival dates from 1 st March to 31 st August 2016 based on total bookings issued as of 28 th February 2016 vs. the same period of previous year. Lengths of Stay: Current analysis includes only those reservations staying at least 1 night at destination, therefore excluding transits, day trips or one way trips. Arrivals refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific time frame. Arrivals on the Book (OTB Arrivals) refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific future time frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted. Bookings represent air reservations made for travel to the specific destination (i.e. Paris) for any date of travel. Cancellations include modifications to any previously issued booking as well as final cancellation. The content and the data provided in this document are for information only. press@forwardkeys.com