Federation of Bosna and Hercegovina Federal Hydrometeorological Institute Meteorologisk institutt met.no

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1 Federation of Bosna and Hercegovina Federal Hydrometeorological Institute Sabina Hodžić 1 st Joint DMCSEE JRC Workshop on Drought monitoring Ljubljana, Slovenia, September 2009

2 Land resources in Bosnia and Herzegovina

3 General situation in B&H Assessment of vulnerability by drought B&H covers ha of which (52%) is classified as agricultural soil, and area equivalent to only 0,58 ha per capita, or 0,27 ha of arable land per capita. The forest covers ha (48%). B&H is very poor in good quality soil. 45% of agricultural land is medium quality hilly country ( m, well suited to semi intensive livestock production. Mountain areas (over 700 m) account for a further 35% percent of agricultural land. High altitude, steep slope and poor soil fertility limit use of this land to livestock grazing during the year. Less than 20% of agricultural land (half of all arable land) is suited to intensive agriculture, most of it in lowland river valleys and karstic fields.

4 Climate Due to very diverse geography and topography climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina is quite complex. The influence of the Adriatic see is largely cut off by the Dinaric Alps. There are three general climatic areas: 1. Southwest, with Mediterranean, or maritime climate type, 2. Central part, with continental-mountain or alpine climate type, and 3. North part with moderate continental or middle Europe climate type.

5 Total average rainfall (mm)

6 Rainfall Precipitation represents the greatest water resource of B&H. The annual average precipitation is about 1200 mm, which in terms of volume amounts to 61, 6 billion m 3. However, the precipitation is the most variable hydrological parameter in terms of space and time, the fact which is drastically obvious in the territory of B&H. Quantity of rainfall in B&H is affected by humid air mass coming from west and south.going from west where mountainos areas receive around 2000 mm towards the east total rainfall decreases to around 700 mm. Maximum rainfall in the northern part of B&H occurs most often in June or September. Herzegovina and the highest central parts of B&H are exposed to an onslaught of humid mass from south charactererized by a marine pluviometric regime and they receive up to 2000 mm on an annual basis.maximum rainfall occurs mostly at the end of autmn or beginning of winter in November and December.

7 In central and northern parts of B&H the seasonal distribution of precipitation over the year is more favorable for agriculture having the characteristics of continental precipitation regime. The seasonal variability is characterized by unfavorable distribution of precipitation over the year, particularly manifested in the southern parts of B&H, where the major part of precipitation is coming in the colder season when the need for evapotranspiration is reduced, while the lower part appears in the summer season when the need for evapotranspiration is increased. This is main characteristic of the Mediterranean precipitation regime. In central and northern parts of B&H the seasonal distribution of precipitation over the year is more favorable for agriculture having the characteristics of continental precipitation regime.

8 The annual precipitation in all three parts of B&H is higher than annual potential evapotranspiration, but because of uneven precipitation distribution the potential evapotraspiration is not covered by precipitation. In the fig. 1 is shown average spatial distribution four main hydrological parameters: precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), surplus of water (S) and deficit of water (D). P and PET growing from east to west, but S and D growing from north to south.

9

10 Potential evapotranspiration (PET) The annual average PET in B&H is about 725 mm, which is considerably higher in southern parts (900 mm), while it is lower in central (650 mm) and northern parts (700 mm). Real or actual evapotranspiration (RET) The average annual RET in B & H is 600 mm,about 125 mm lower than PET, but the differences between RET and PET are the greatest in the southern parts (about 300 mm), lower in the northern (about 100 mm) and the lowest in the central parts (about 50 mm) of B&H.

11 # o r d i n a r y c l i m a t o l o g i c a l s t a t i o nv i s o k o s h p. s h p # o r d i n a r y c l i m a t o l o g i c a l s t a t i o nk u p r e s s h p. s h p # K l i m a t. s h p W a t e r s B i h. s h p During the past decade in Europe, widespread and severe drought has resulted in an increased awareness of the nations continuing vulnerability to this creeping natural hazard. Last decade ( ) was warmest in the last 50 years on the territory of B&H. Also, 2007 is the 5th since meteorological observations in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been initiated. It is special not only because of the high temperatures, but because it indicates existence of very warm and very cold short periods. We decided to research extreme events in Bosnia and Herzegovina within last ten years with special overview on 2007 and compare it with adequate values in respective row year. Figure 2.shows anomalies of average decade temperature oscillations at Sarajevo station. We can see large oscilations in figure columns. It indicates existence of very warm and very cold short periods. Also, 2007 shows strongly differences between two periods (January - August is very warm period, where the period from September - December is cold.) # S U R F A C E S I N O P T I C S T A T I O N G l a v n e m e t e o r o l o š k e s t a n i c e. s h p

12 Figure 2. Anomalies of decades average temperatures SARAJEVO (black) and 2007 (yellow ) Anomalies of decades average temperatures o C 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0-6,0-8,0-10, number of decade

13 Similar oscillations were detected in terms of precipitation. (Fig 3). We can see two extreme decades sum in Sarajevo: 185 mm (2 nd decade December 1999) and 172 mm and (3rd October 2003). Also, 2007 shows differences between two periods (January - August shows low precipitation, while period September - December shows higher precipitation.)

14 Figure 3. Anomalies of decades sum of precipitation 200,0 SARAJEVO (blue) and 2007 (pink) Anomalies of decades sum of precipitation 150,0 l/m 2 100,0 50,0 0,0-50, number of decade

15 To determine intensity and number of these oscillations we applied these conditions: t+sd, t+2*sd, t-sd, t-2*sd, and we analyzed 396 values of decades temperatures from row and Tables 1a and 1b show results. Table 1a Number of decades with extreme values Warm extreme warm cold Extreme cold ,0 81,0 57,0 20, ,0 10,0 6,0 1,0

16 To observe changes in precipitation regime we applied conditions > R+sd or R+2*sd, where R means average decades sums precipitation from row , and decades from row and Table 1b Number of decades with precipitation > R+sd or R+2*sd rainy extreme rainy ,0 19, ,0 2,0

17 mm 140,0 Sarajevo - summer 120,0 y = 0,0312x + 32,543 y = 0,0791x + 39,679 y = 0,0768x + 53,28 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0, day 2day 5day Linear (1day) Linear (2day) Linear (5day) Analyses of precipitations indicate large number of decades sum with extreme values. We observed increase of intensity of precipitation over 1 day, 3 days and 5 days maximum precipitations. We associated linear trend in rows

18 . Drought period is considered using De Martonne Index from the period and 2007 with average values of the same parameter from the period Results show unusual large number of drought periods from moderate to extreme drought. De Martonne Index is also low in summer period especially for the southwest area of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mostar year III IV V VI VII VIII IX

19 Conclusions Global warming is evident. Annual average temperature is increased from 0,7 o C to 0,8 o C per hundred years. Annual average precipitation sum shows little change about +,- 5 %. High frequency of records in absolute maximum temperature, but also records in the other meteorological parameters (minimum temperatures, maximum daily, decade, and monthly precipitation sum, intensity of precipitation, frequency of long and short dry periods). Increasing variability in all season has been noticed and this variability includes rapid changes of short periods of extremely cold or warm weather, as well as troubles in agriculture (increased water requirements of the crops grown, and thereby also higher water deficit in soil and the demand for providing larger quantities of suitable irrigation water). No catastrophes, natural disasters,human losses, or significant material damage were noticed, unlike other parts of the world. Posavina (in north part B&H) can be treated as risky place for flooding and drought, and Herzegovina (in south-west parth B&H) can be treated as risky place for forest conflagration and drought.

20 Evidently we have increased intensity of precipitation (rain shower) which caused increased runoff and soil moisture deficit. Analyses of precipitations indicate large number of decade sum with extreme values. The results allow the conclusion that climatic changes in the last period period , caused increased water requirements of the crops grown, and thereby also higher water deficit in soil and the demand for providing larger quantities of suitable irrigation water. Processing decade values we determined presence of cold and warm short period and large variability regime of precipitations. Observed phenomena are in harmony with world s processes of global warming.

21 Drought in 2008

22 Drought mitigation The main steps of drought mitigation could be the following: Modification the crop rotation according to the natural soil water regime ; Adjust planting dates,crop varieties and irrigation strategies. Drainage, especially of heavy soils, could have important role in drought mitigation,

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