Worldwide Lifecycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Pet roleum Fuels
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1 Worldwide Lifecycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Pet roleum Fuels Raymond Speth, Pooya Azadi, Robert Malina CRC Workshop, Argonne National Laboratory October 28, 2015 Website: LAE.MIT.EDU
2 Objectives Estimate global and world-region specific lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for petroleum-derived transportation fuels, with a particular focus on jet fuel Temporal dimension: Retrospective analysis for 2005 and 2012 Near-term projection for Long-term scenarios for 2050 Spatial dimension: Global W orld-regions Energy Information Administration (EIA) definitions 2
3 Oil Supply Chain Well-to-Pump Emissions? ~ 72 g CO 2/ MJ St age 1 Extraction St age 2 Crude Movement STAGE 3 Refining STAGE 4 Product s Movement STAGE 5 Combustion 3
4 Challenges Large number of (small) emissions across a wide range of activities W ide range of technologies used for the same task W ide geographical distribution: Crude is produced in 9 1 countries Refined products are produced in 112 countries Refined products are used in 218 countries/ territories Scarcity, sparsity, and aggregation of data: Well and reservoir characteristics Crude grades produced/ consumed Refinery intake streams and outputs Variation in outputs of refinery units Import/ export data of crude and refined products 4
5 Approach Data collection from many s our ces Estimation of missing data points based on regional or world averages when specific values are not available Categorization based on best practice Aggregation of data at country level Inferences based on material balances Uncertainty analysis 5
6 Emission Sources Included in LCA 1. Product ion Drilling Prime movers Hydraulic fracturing Mining Artificial Lift R od pumps Gas lift Surface Processing Heater/ treater Crude stabilizer W astewater treatment Water re-injection Flaring, venting, fugitive Enhanced Oil Recovery CO 2 flooding Steam injection Gas injection 2. Crude Movement Transportation Mode Tankers Pipeline R ail Trucks Barge 3. Refining Distillation Atmospheric Vacuum Refor ming Hydrotreating Catalytic Cracking FCC Hydrocracking Thermal Cracking Vis breaking Coking Alkylation Isomerization Cogeneration 4. Product Movement Transportation Mode Tankers Pipeline R ail Trucks Barge FCC: Fluid Catalytic Cracking VOC: Volatile Organic Compounds Additional factors: Land use change (vegetation & soil carbon), flaring & fugitive emissions, VOC emissions 6
7 Data Inventory 1. Product ion 2. Crude Movement 3. Refining 4. Product Movement Crude & NGL production, consumption, trade Crude assays Type of oil fields (conventional/ heavy/ ti ght/ oil sands), by field Location of (major) oil fields, Number of active rigs Number, average depth of producing wells drilled Gas-to-oil and water-tooil ratios, by country Gas flaring Enhanced oil recovery practices Crude pipelines length and diameter Tanker fleet size and age distributions Intra-country movements of crude by rail, truck, and barge Refinery intake (crude, NGL, unfinished oils, oxygenates, additives) R efinery unit capacities R efined products slate, consumption, trade Refined products pipelines length and diameter Tanker fleet size and age distributions Intra-country movements of refined products by rail, truck, and barge NGL: Natural Gas Liquids EOR: Enhanced Oil Recovery Emission factors for electricity, hydrogen, heat, steam, natural gas, and other fuels 7
8 R efinery Emissions: Methods Refinery by refinery process unit capacity data was collected and compiled from various sources (Global Data, BP, Oil & Gas J ournal, OPEC, etc.). Data includes 1 8 process types in refineries, corresponding to full coverage of the global refining capacity. The inputs to the model include: Refinery by refinery unit capacities Process unit heat, steam, electricity, and hydrogen consumption/ generation Emission indices of utilities and hydrogen Process unit output mix Refinery utilization factors Average refinery fuel use by each country Crude grades refined in each country, based on production and import data Country s product slate 8
9 R egional Distillation Capacities Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 9
10 R egional Secondary Process Capacities Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 10
11 Example: J et Fuel Production Pathways Process Unit (g CO 2 /MJ) Jet Fuel (g CO 2 /MJ) SR (0.94) Atmospheric Distillation (0.94) Vacuum Distillation (0.61) Coker (2.45) Hydrotreater (5.83) Desulfurized SR (6.8) Hydrocracker (15.4) AGO-HC (16.3) Hydrocracker (15.4) LVGO-HC (16.9) Hydrotreater (5.83) FCC (5.73) LVGO-FCC (13.1) Hydrotreater (5.83) Coker (9.8) Hydrocracker (15.4) Coker-HC (19.4) Hydrotreater (5.83) FCC (5.73) Coker-FCC (15.6) SR: Straight Run HC: Hydrocracked AGO: Atmospheric Gas Oil LVGO: Light Vacuum Gas Oil Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 11
12 Example: J et Fuel Refinery Emissions Emissions per unit throughput Atmospheric Distillation (0.94) Vacuum Distillation (0.61) FCC (5.73) Hydrocracker (15.4) Hydrotreater (5.83) Coker (2.45) Flaring (0.09) Co-generation (-0.55) Values in (g CO 2 /MJ) Relative capacity Kerosene output share Jet/Kerosene ratio Jet fuel product fraction Emissions per unit jet fuel Atmospheric Distillation (0.94) Vacuum Distillation (0.30) FCC (0.26) Hydrocracker (1.28) Hydrotreater (2.40) Coker (0.13) Flaring (0.09) Co-generation (-0.55) Jet Fuel (4.85 g CO 2 /MJ) Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 12
13 Straight-R un & Cracked MD Component North America Eur ope World (mmbbl/ d) SR Cracked SR Cracked SR Cracked Middle distillates Kerosene (intermediate) J et fuel (product) Kerosene (product) St raight -run (SR) middle distillate cuts: Naphtha/ Kerosene swing Kerosene Kerosene/ Diesel swing Diesel Light VGO Cracked middle distillate from: FCC Hydrocracker Coking Visbreaker Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 13
14 Regional Material Balance Objective is to calculate the emission of petroleum fuels consumed at each world region. Follow EIA s definition of world regions, i.e. North America, Central and South America, Europe, Eurasia, Africa, Middle East, Asia and Oceania. Crude production Region A Intra-region Refineries Region A Consumption Region A Region B Region C Inter-regional Region B Region C 14
15 WTP Emissions by Product Well-to-Pump (WTP) Emissions (g CO2 e /MJ) Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 15
16 W orld R egion-specific R esults W TP GHG emission of Average Refinery Product consumed in each region. Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 16
17 2005, 2012, and 2020 WTP Results Well-to-Pump (WTP) Emissions (g CO2 e /MJ) Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 17
18 Sensitivity Analysis Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 18
19 Next Steps Product-specific uncertainty analysis Scenarios for global and word-region-specific emissions in 2050 Opportunities for reductions of GHG emissions from petroleum-derived transportation fuels 19
20 Acknowledgments This work was sponsored by the FAA through the ASCENT Center of Excellence (Project 32) W ork presented may not represent the views of the FAA 20
21 Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment Massachusetts Institute of Technology Raymond Speth, Pooya Azadi, Robert Malina W ebsite: LAE.MIT.EDU 21
22 Glossary AGO: Atmos pheric Gas Oil EOR: Enhanced Oil Recovery FCC: Fluid Catalytic Cracking HC: Hydrocracker LPG: Liquefied Petroleum Gas LVGO: Light Vacuum Gas Oil NGL: Natural Gas Liquids OGJ : Oil & Gas J our nal OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries PTW: Pump to Wheels/ Wake SR: Straight Run VGO: Vacuum Gas Oil W TP: W ell to Pump WTW: Well to Wheels/ Wake 22
23 Regional Inherent Yields Other cuts not shown here: gas, heavy VGO, vacuum residue. Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 23
24 R efinery Emission: Methods Utility consumption and emission factors Process unit emission per bbl throughput Refinery unit capacity Process unit emission Process unit GHG allocation factors Adding up emissions from all refinery units Adding up emissions from all refineries in each country Country s refined product slate Product -specific process unit emission Product -specific refinery emission Product -specific country emission Product -specific country emission per MJ 24
25 2005 Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 25
26 2012 Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 26
27 2020 Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 27
28 Refinery Emissions per barrel Steam, heat, electricity, and hydrogen consumption of common refinery process units are obtained from literature. Then, the emission of each process unit per barrel input is calculated using emission indices of utilities and hydrogen. Total emission from each refinery process unit is obtained by multiplying unit emission by unit capacity and refinery overall utilization factor. Sample calculation of process unit GHG emission per bbl throughput Unit St eam (MJ/ bbl) Electricity (MJ/ bbl) Heat (MJ/ bbl) Hydrogen (MJ/ bbl) CO 2 (kg/ bbl) P P P
29 R efinery Emission Allocation Factors Emissions / credits at process unit level are allocated to different products based on the ultimate use of the output mix from that unit. The basis for the GHG allocation can be energy content, volume, mass, or economic value of the products. Inherent yields from crude assays are used to estimate straight-run yields and make adjustment for the final product slate. Sample GHG allocation factors based on unit output mix Unit Gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Fuel oil LPG Ot her s a 1 R elative to final product slate a 2 10% 5% 45% 10% 30% a 3 100% 29
30 Stage 3 : Product Allocation Factors Unit Gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Atm. distillation R elative to final product slate Residual fuel oil Ot her s Vac. distillation Relative to product slate from atm. residue Catalytic cracking 71% 2% 27% Refor ming 100% Coking 12% 5% 50% 33% Hydrocracking 58% 11% 31% Alkylation 100% Isomerization 100% Hydrotreating Naphtha 100% Kerosene 100% Diesel 100% VGO 71% 2% 27% Values are from NETL (2008), Petroleum Refining by Gary et al., and AFPM (2014) Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 30
31 Commercial Crudes Production volume and properties of commercial crudes produced by each country are needed to calculate the properties of crude produced (and consumed) within each region. Current database include production volume, density (API), and sulfur content of commercial crudes, covering ~ 9 0 % of global production. 31
32 Inherent Yields of Commercial Crudes Crude assays were obtained from Aspen PIMS library. cont. cont. weighted average Country-specific yields weighted average Region-specific yields 32
33 Comparison with NETL Preliminary results Please do not cite or quote. 33
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