Renewable ancillary service markets for California s duck curve

Transcription

1 Renewable ancillary service markets for California s duck curve how to reduce carbon emissions by making California s duck fatter Jimmy Nelson, Ph.D. Kendall Science Fellow Climate and Energy Program jnelson@ucsusa.org

2 Summary We should try to use renewables at the time of generation in order to: Keep integration costs down Reduce carbon emissions

3 Summary We should try to use renewables at the time of generation in order to: Keep integration costs down Reduce carbon emissions Renewable dispatchability can enable: Nimble rather than blunt curtailment Participation in ancillary service markets New revenue streams for renewable projects Increased renewable market share

4 Net Electricity Demand (MW) Concern: the duck s belly could cause overgeneration BELLY

5 Net Electricity Demand (MW) Concern: overgeneration Supply and demand must be equal every second Must-run generation for reliability, reserves, contracts, etc.

6 Net Electricity Demand (MW) Concern: overgeneration Supply and demand must be equal every second Curtailment?

7 Net Electricity Demand (MW) In reality, the 2020 duck is skinny 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 What is here? 3,000 1,000 0

8 Net Electricity Demand (MW) In reality, the 2020 duck is skinny 11,000 9,000 7,000 Must-run generation for reliability, reserves, contracts, etc. 5,000 3,000 1,000 0

9 The duck can, and should be, fatter In general, solar should be used during daylight hours

10 33% RPS: all systems go Hour of Day Investigating a Higher Renewables Portfolio Standard in California Energy and Environmental Economics, 2014

11 40% RPS: curtailment appears Hour of Day Investigating a Higher Renewables Portfolio Standard in California Energy and Environmental Economics, 2014

12 50% RPS: curtailment increases Hour of Day Investigating a Higher Renewables Portfolio Standard in California Energy and Environmental Economics, 2014

13 Prioritize reducing gas generation Why is there gas online? Hour of Day

14 Climate can t support gas online when renewables are available Williams, J.H., et al., The technology path to deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts by 2050: the pivotal role of electricity. Science 335, 2012,

15 The grid needs more than just energy to operate reliably

16 The grid needs more than just energy to operate reliably If renewables don t provide ancillary services, then other sources must do so

17 Ancillary services example: regulation Load (MW) Supply and demand must be equal every second Regulation balances load and generation Timescale: a few seconds to five minutes Five Minutes Five Minute Schedule One Hour Makarov, Y. V., et al., Operational Impacts of Wind Generation on California Power Systems. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 24 (2), 2009,

18 Ancillary services example: regulation Load (MW) Supply and demand must be equal every second Regulation balances load and generation Timescale: a few seconds to five minutes Five Minutes Five Minute Schedule Actual Generation One Hour Makarov, Y. V., et al., Operational Impacts of Wind Generation on California Power Systems. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 24 (2), 2009,

19 Ancillary services example: regulation Load (MW) Supply and demand must be equal every second Regulation balances load and generation Timescale: a few seconds to five minutes Five Minutes Regulation Five Minute Schedule Actual Generation One Hour Makarov, Y. V., et al., Operational Impacts of Wind Generation on California Power Systems. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 24 (2), 2009,

20 How can renewables help? Be willing to be curtailed economically It s dispatchability, not curtailment!

21 How can renewables help? Be willing to be curtailed economically It s dispatchability, not curtailment! Include dispatchability in contracts Not just energy revenues anymore Renewable Ancillary Services Markets

22 How can renewables help? Be willing to be curtailed economically It s dispatchability, not curtailment! Include dispatchability in contracts Not just energy revenues anymore Renewable Ancillary Services Markets Work with grid operators to include renewable dispatchability in ancillary service products

23 But Storage, demand response, transmission, etc. can help Each has barriers to deployment We know we can deploy renewables at scale Renewables are easier to deploy if they provide ancillary services Curtail a little, deploy a lot increased market share

24 Jimmy Nelson, Ph.D. Kendall Science Fellow Climate and Energy Program Questions?