Ireland s Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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1 Ireland s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Environmental Protection Agency 9 th October 2013

2 Overview Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance

3 Highlights Total GHG emissions in 2012 are Mt CO 2 eq, up 0.58 Mt CO 2 eq, 1.0% increase Greenhouse gas emissions decreased in: Residential, Transport and Waste sectors and increased in Energy, Industry & Commercial and Agriculture sectors Energy emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO 2 eq a 5.9% increase, reflecting an increase in the use of coal for electricity generation Residential emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO 2 eq a 5.9% reduction, due to higher than average temperatures in 2012 Industry & Commercial emissions are up 0.13 Mt CO 2 eq a 1.5% increase Transport emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO 2 eq a 3.5% reduction Agriculture emissions are 3.0% higher in 2012, due to increases in cattle and sheep numbers Waste emissions are 2.7% lower in 2012, due to increase in utilisation and flaring of landfill gas Based on the current inventory, Ireland is 0.80 million tonnes below the Kyoto Protocol target, when the impact of EU ETS and Forest Sinks are taken into account

4 Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sources Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Sinks Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation Gases CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6

5 Overview Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance

6 Mt CO 2 Equivalent GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) % Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Overall emissions in 2012 are up 4.8% on 1990 levels

7 Mt CO 2 eq. Interannual Change in GHG Emissions Inter annual change

8 GHG emissions 1990 and 2012 Transport 9.3% Waste 2.5% Energy 20.6% Transport 18.8% Waste 1.8% Energy 21.9% Agriculture 36.9% Residential 13.5% Residential 10.7% Mt CO 2 eq. Industry & Commercial 17.3% Agriculture 32.1% Mt CO 2 eq Industry & Commercial 14.7%

9 Mt of CO 2 eq. GHG emissions by Sector Agriculture Energy Transport Industry & Commercial Residential Waste

10 Mt CO 2 eq Energy GHG emissions Power Generation Oil Refining / Solid Fuel Manufacture Fugitive Overall emissions in 2012 are 11.3% up on 1990 levels

11 Mt CO 2 eq Energy GHG emissions Power Generation Oil Refining / Solid Fuel Manufacture Fugitive Emissions in 2012 are just above 1993 levels

12 Mt CO 2 eq Residential GHG emissions % -11.2% -0.7% -2.5% -0.6% 1.9% -5.1% 8.2% -5.3% 1.3% 4.2% -1.1% 2.3% 2.7% 4.0% -1.6% -3.2% 8.6% -0.8% 4.8% -15.5% -5.9% Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Gaseous Fuels Biomass Fuels Emissions in 2012 are 16.9% below 1990 levels

13 Mt CO 2 eq Industry and Commercial Manufacturing & Construction Industrial Processes Commercial Services Solvents 'F' Gases Overall emissions in 2012 are 10.6% down on 1990 levels

14 Mt CO 2 eq EU-ETS Emissions % -2.1% -3.9% -15.6% 0.8% Cement emissions up 17.6% -9.2% 6.9% Power generation emissions up 6.4% Power Generation Oil Refining & Solid Fuel Manufacture Non-ferrous Metals Food Processing Cement Other Power Cement Overall generation ETS sector emissions emissions in 2012 in in 2012 are are 24.7% are 53.1% 19.8% down down on on 2005 on 2005 levels levels

15 Mt CO 2 eq Transport GHG emissions Road Transport Railways Domestic Civil Aviation Domestic Navigation Gas Transmission Overall emissions in 2012 are 113% up on 1990 levels

16 Mt CO 2 eq Agriculture GHG emissions Fuel Combustion Enteric Fermentation Manure Management Agricultural Soils Overall emissions in 2012 are 8.6% down on 1990 levels

17 Mt CO 2 eq Waste GHG emissions Landfill WasteWater Incineration Overall emissions in 2012 are 26.1% down on 1990 levels

18 Overview Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance

19 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland GHG emissions and GDP Power Generation Transport Residential Agriculture Waste

20 Index 1990=100 GHG emissions and GDP (relative trend) GDP GHG Greenhouse gas emissions GDP, constant prices

21 Population (000s) Tonne of GHG/capita GHG Emissions/Capita Ireland tonnes/capita tonnes/capita Population Tonne of GHG/capita 12.6 tonnes/capita

22 Tonnes GHG/capita GHG Emissions/Capita for all EU/EEA Member States in Ireland EU CO2 CH4 N2O F-Gases

23 Tonnes GHG/capita GHG Emissions/Capita for all UNFCCC Annex I Parties in Ireland EU

24 Index 1990=100 Power Generation CO 2 and Electricity Total Final Consumption (relative trend) Electricity TFC Power generation Power Generation CO2 (Gg) Electricity Total Available Final Consumption GWh

25 Fuel Consumption, TJ Drivers in Transport Fuel consumption 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Gasoline Diesel LPG Fuel Oil Kerosene (Civil Aviation) Biofuels

26 Index 1990=100 Drivers in Transport Vehicle numbers (relative trend) Cars Commercial vehicles

27 Vehicle numbers Drivers in Transport Passenger Cars Diesel cars 30.1% Diesel cars 9.4% Gasoline cars Diesel cars

28 Drivers for Residential Sector 1,800, M households 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , M households 0 No. of Households Household numbers are up 64% since 1990

29 Fuel Use, TJ Mt CO2eq Drivers for Residential Sector Liquid & Gas fuels +198% Solid fuels -66% Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Renewables CO2 eq emissions from Residential Sector Overall emissions in 2012 are 16.9% down on 1990 levels

30 Index 1990=100 Drivers in Agriculture Livestock population (relative trend) Pigs Dairy Cattle Other Cattle Sheep Fertilizer N Pigs Other Cattle 102 Dairy Cattle 82 Fertiliser 78 Sheep 60

31 Tonnes of Waste Drivers for Waste Sector Waste generated

32 Tonnes of Waste Drivers for Waste Sector Waste sent to Landfill

33 CH 4 emissions from waste solid waste disposal on land Gg 90 Mt of CH CH4 Flaring CH4 Utilisation CH4 Generation CH4 Emissions Flaring and utilisation increased by 2% between 2011 and 2012

34 Overview Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance

35 Implications for Kyoto Compliance Mt CO 2 eq Total National Emissions Less Verified Emissions for ETS Total Non-ETS Emissions Kyoto Limit Less ETS Allocation 22.28* 22.28* 22.28* 22.28* 22.28* Total Non-ETS Limit Distance above Kyoto limit after five years of Kyoto Protocol period (excluding forest sinks) = Forest sinks Distance above Kyoto limit after five years of Kyoto Protocol period (including forest sinks)

36 Implications for Kyoto Compliance Kyoto Protocol Limit Mtonnes of CO 2 e for the period Mtonnes of CO 2 e per annum For ETS sectors Allocation of million allowances per annum For non-ets sectors = Mtonnes of CO 2 e per annum - the effective target for Ireland Compare Mtonnes of CO 2 e with actual non-ets sector emissions for 2008 to 2012 and take into account forest sinks Based on 2008 to 2012 emissions, compliance with Kyoto Protocol by 0.80 Mtonnes of CO 2 e

37 Highlights Total GHG emissions in 2012 are Mt CO 2 eq, up 0.58 Mt CO 2 eq, 1.0% increase Greenhouse gas emissions decreased in: Residential, Transport and Waste sectors and increased in Energy, Industry & Commercial and Agriculture sectors Energy emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO 2 eq a 5.9% increase, reflecting an increase in the use of coal for electricity generation Residential emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO 2 eq a 5.9% reduction, due to higher than average temperatures in 2012 Industry & Commercial emissions are up 0.13 Mt CO 2 eq a 1.5% increase Transport emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO 2 eq a 3.5% reduction Agriculture emissions are 3.0% higher in 2012, due to increases in cattle and sheep numbers Waste emissions are 2.7% lower in 2012, due to increase in utilisation and flaring of landfill gas Based on the current inventory, Ireland is 0.80 million tonnes below the Kyoto Protocol target, when the impact of EU ETS and Forest Sinks are taken into account

38 Mt CO 2 eq Where we need to go under the EU Effort Sharing Decision [406/2009/EC] Mt -20% 37.5 Mt Non ETS Emissions ETS Emissions

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