Denmark Market Report Q2 2016

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1 Denmark Market Report Q ECONOMY Industrial sector and private consumption increase GDP growth Preliminary calculations from Statistics Denmark show that GDP increased by. % in Q, taking seasonal variations and price developments into account. This is a significant improvement compared to the consensus expectation of a. % increase. The increase in GDP is largely due to positive growth of the industrial and constructions sectors, which both increased by. %. Additionally, private consumption has grown after several years of restraint. The economic improvement has been supported by rising employment and rising real wages as a result of very low inflation. Employment is rising and will continue to do so, especially among - year olds. As a result of the early retirement reform it is no longer possible to retire at age, which has increased the proportion of wage earners among year olds. The key figures generally show that the Danish economy is in a period with low growth levels, at approximately % in, which is expected to rise to around % in the coming years. It should be noted that there are major regional differences, with as the largest driving force for growth. As a small open economy, Denmark is strongly influenced by the economic development of its major trading partners as well as the development of the world economy in general. International instability has caused uncertainty about global growth, which has affected the Danish economy negatively. Growth is still high in China, but the economic slowdown prevalent in recent years continues. Combined with significant declines in the stock market, this has led to general uncertainty in the financial markets. Finally, there are multiple threats lurking in. In Europe, the sovereign debt crisis appears to be over, but the large influx of refugees and immigrants as well as Britain's possible withdrawal from the EU (BREXIT) have contributed to the increased uncertainty. It is expected that these reservations will gradually decrease in strength and not derail the ongoing, cautious recovery in the international economy. Annual real GDP growth You may quote from this report provided the source is acknowledged. Decisions in relation to real estate should always be assessed thoroughly, and all parties should thus examine the market in detail. Notwithstanding that we have examined and reviewed the information in the report with great care, Colliers International Danmark disclaims any responsibility for losses based on information in this report. % Joseph Alberti Research Analyst Cand Polit. joseph.alberti@colliers.com Phone Exchange rates (June ) DKK per units of foreign currency EUR > 7 USD > 8 GBP > 899 SEK > 79 NOK > statistikbanken.dk and Danmarks Nationalbank Note: 8 are based on estimates.

2 INVESTMENTS On track for a record year promises to be another outstanding year in the investment market. The Q transaction volume was. billion kr., which bodes well for the rest of the year since the first quarter historically has a lower transaction volume than an average quarter. The residential sector accounted for the majority of the Q investments, largely due to investment from real estate companies and funds. There has also been increased interest in industrial and logistics properties and it is expected that international investors will be focused on this particular segment. Transaction volume DKK bn 8 7 The international investors have been very active in the Danish market, and accounted for about % of all real estate investments in. Along with international investors, institutional investors and major property funds dominate the real estate investment market. These investors are primarily interested in prime real estate portfolios and larger properties Source: Colliers International Note: is based on estimates. Interest rates have fallen to very low levels and the interbank interest rates have been negative since January. The yield on the Danish -year government bond is still very low and has fallen to.8% during the past months. The European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled that interest rates will not be further reduced. Therefore, there is a consensus view of stable official interest rates over the next few years. It cannot be excluded that the National Bank will need to adjust interest rates slightly, but these are expected to be minor adjustments that will not have any major impact. The stable, low interest rate is one of the main reasons for the large investments in the real estate market, and several economists expect interest rates to remain below % until at least the end of the decade. Danish interest rates % 8 7 The very high demand for prime properties has resulted in higher market prices and hence lower yield levels. This has led more investors to seek more attractive returns in the secondary markets month money market interest rate Bond rate -year government bond Q transaction volume by property type Annual inflation % % 7% % 9% % Residential Office Retail Industrial Other Source: Colliers International Denmark Source: Eurostat EU Denmark Market Report Q INVESTMENT Colliers International

3 RESIDENTIAL The largest segment of the real estate market Investments in the housing market have increased significantly in the last quarter and now represent the largest segment of the property market. There have been several major portfolio transactions throughout the past year, which gives an indication of investor confidence in rental and sales prices, and that the strong demand for housing will continue. Institutional investors in particular have increased their capital allocation in alternative investments, including real estate investments. The total housing construction rose by 8% in Q compared to Q. The development reflects a % increase in multifamily buildings being built, and a % decline in single-family, semidetached or terraced houses. Square meters living space per person as of January Net initial yields continue to fall as a consequence of demand for housing being substantially greater than the supply in cities. For properties with modernization potential, or old buildings with cost-regulated rental amounts, net initial yields are now as low as %. For prime properties with no potential for improvement the net initial yield is %. It should be noted that the net initial yield for properties with improvement potential is not very meaningful, since other factors are more relevant. The Danish Financial Supervisory Authority has kept a watchful eye on housing price increases in and and has increased regulation in the housing market. Subsequent to regulations bring implemented, price increases have been reduced. It is expected that these regulations will further strengthen the rental market, because all things being equal, regulation will increase demand for rental housing. The Carlsberg Foundation has sold six large properties to three Danish pension funds, PFA Pension, Juristernes og Økonomernes Pensionskasse (JØP) og Danske Civil- og Akademiingeniørers Pensionskasse (DIP) for DKK.bn. The property portfolio consists of over 7 apartments, and is expected to achieve a yield of %. Price index for sales of real property in ordinary free trade House price index (=) (=) Condominiums Denmark Single family homes EU Source: Eurostat Denmark Market Report Q RESIDENTIAL Colliers International

4 OFFICE Increased demand The net initial yields for prime office properties in are still under downward pressure and are now down to.%, in some cases even lower. This is due to increased interest in investing, particularly from international investors. In the rest of the country we are seeing a trend that investments are increasingly moving out of the city centers. Investors are increasingly looking for modern and new properties which are typically not available in the city centers. Vacancy per region in Denmark (%) Office vacancy rate, April There has been increased interest in sale and leaseback transactions. This might be explained by the difference between the market rent and sales price. Currently, there is a relatively large distance between the sales price and rent, which means that it is relatively advantageous for a business that owns their own offices to carry out a sale and leaseback transaction. We expect an increase in the number of sale and leaseback transactions in. Employment numbers continue to grow, and have increased by approximately 7, people since late, creating increased demand for office space. Unemployment levels have continued to fall the past six months, and net unemployment is currently just over 9, people. The vacancy rate for office space dropped nationwide by. percentage points and was at 8.% as of April. The fall in vacancy has been most pronounced in the capital region where the vacancy rate fell from.% to 9.%, which corresponds to approximately.8 million m² vacant office space Total office vacancy rate (%) Source: Oline-ED Statistikken 8 PensionDanmark has purchased BDO s HQ in central and Company House from C.W. Obel Properties for DKK m. The properties comprise an overall office area of approximately m² and m² basement. The investment is PensionDanmarks first direct investment in the commercial real estate market in. Market rent for office space, April DKK per sqm a year operations not included,,8 Employment in thousands,,,, Office yield, April.%.7%.7%.7.%..7%.7% Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Note: Modern and old properties in prime locations Denmark Market Report Q OFFICE Colliers International

5 RETAIL A divided market In general, the market has been very active the past quarter. The market rent for high street areas is increasing in and, and stable to increasing in other major cities. International investors are very active in the market for high street stores, especially in. This has helped to maintain the downward pressure on net initial yields for prime properties. The net initial yield has decreased from.% to.7% and is even lower in some cases. For secondary locations, the picture is somewhat less clear. On the one hand high market rents for prime locations are pressuring some shops to seek slightly cheaper leases. On the other hand, the increased e-commerce as well as the urbanization of the population is increasing vacancy rates for secondary leases. Nationwide, the vacancy rate for retail space is unchanged at.%. There have been changes regionally however, vacancy rates fell by. percentage points and. percentage points in the Central Denmark Region and the Capital Region, respectively. Conversely, the vacancy rate rose by. percentage points in the Region of Southern Denmark as well as the North Denmark Region. The consumer confidence indicator has been positive since June and the most recent development shows a slight decrease from. in April to. in May. The average for the past six months is., and the current level can be considered on par with the average. According to Statistic Denmark s survey, the Danish population assesses both the family's and Denmark's economic situation as better now than it was a year ago. In addition, there is confidence that the economic situation in one year will be better than it is today. Nordic Real Estate Partners (NREP) has sold the 7 m² large shopping center BIG built in to CBRE Global Investment Partners and Portus Retail in a joint venture. BIG Shopping contains 8 stores and restaurants as well as a movie theater. The shopping center cost DKK.bn to build. Vacancy per region in Denmark (%) Source: Oline-ED Statistikken Market rent for retail space, April DKK per sqm a year operations not included.. Total retail vacancy rate (%) Retail vacancy rate, April 7 8 9,, 7,,, 7, Consumer confidence Retail yield, April.7%.%.%.%.%.% Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Note: Retail properties, for example, in pedestrian zones with premises suitable for durable consumer goods in prime locations Denmark Market Report Q RETAIL Colliers International

6 INDUSTRIAL Supply and demand imbalance Modern industrial and logistics properties are in high demand in investment as well as rental markets. International investors are keen on larger properties and portfolios, however, supply is very limited. Sale & leaseback transactions are becoming more popular, especially for larger customers with financial solidity. In general, the industrial and logistics segment has seen growth this past quarter. Industrial production experienced a slight decrease of.9% in the past quarter, but there is a strong expectation of increasing production the next three months, according to industry sentiment. Total industrial turnover has been increasing since 9 and has risen to 8. billion kr. in the first quarter of. Thus, revenue increased by.8% Q/Q and.9% Y/Y. Vacancy rates in industrial and logistics properties have been steadily declining since April. The vacancy rate nationwide is now at.9%, equivalent to just under million m² vacant industrial and logistics facilities. The vacancy rate is expected to continue the slight downward trend in the coming year. In recent months, Denmark's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, a sentiment indicator for the industry) has been above, which is well above the long term average of and can thus be regarded as extremely positive. Eurozone PMI has been slightly positive the past months. Vacancy per region in Denmark (%) Industrial and logistics vacancy rate, April Total industrial and logistics vacancy rate (%) VKR Holding, the owner of Velux, has sold one of Koldings largest and most distinctive logistics properties. The m² large property is used by Velux as their central warehouse. The buyer is Logicenters, a leading developer and owner of modern logistics properties in prime locations in the Nordics with over one million m² of space. Source: Oline-ED Statistikken Market rent for industrial and logistics space, April DKK per sqm a year operations not included 7 Manufacturers' sales DKK bn 9 Industrial and logistics yield, April 8 7.% 7 7.% Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Note: Modern properties in prime locations 7.% 7.% 7.% 7.% Denmark Market Report Q INDUSTRIAL Colliers International