Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul ' Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16

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1 Market Alert India NPK Statistical Update June 216 Statistics DAP MOP June NPK statistics released by the Fertilizer Association of India (FAI) indicated DAP shipments picked up steam from May, topping the average for June but still coming in well below last year. With a quarter of the fertilizer year in the books, DAP shipments of million tonnes are a third behind last year s pace (likely driven by expectations that prices would move lower). With lower retail prices now a reality and an above-average monsoon so far, we expect this differential to close (though not quite match last year s shipment total). June DAP imports as reported by FAI were the highest in a year, but arrivals are still 39% lower than a year ago. With a workable subsidy and relatively stable rupee, we will likely see a bit more pushing of imports into Rabi compared to last year. DAP production is on its fastest pace since 29 (+57% YoY or ~, tonnes), but lower retail prices and high inventory are expected to pull down output for the balance of the year. The main news in the potash sector was settlement of a 2 potash contract ahead of China (at a $227/tonne c&f headline price), which applies to prices July forward. Sales of direct application MOP in June marched higher, with shipments during the first quarter of 2 now off 1% YoY at 452, tonnes. Imports more than doubled from May and now total 55, tonnes, which is down 18% from last year. While we expect to see a nice boost in use this year, high pipeline inventories and a lack of clarity regarding subsidies and retail prices has made some suppliers cautious in their import decisions. Urea Urea shipments started the year off at the slowest pace since 21/11 but have made up some ground; however, at 5.7 million tonnes, they are still 18% below the record setting level seen last year. First quarter imports, on the other hand, are 9% ahead of the same period last year, which has caused a spike in reported inventories. In fact, stocks as reported by FAI are the highest in exactly eight years. production of 5.7 million tonnes is even with last year. India Plant Nutrient Shipments 1 MT Jun '16 DAP 88 1,11-27% 785 3% MOP % % Urea 2,838 2,431 17% 2,42 18% NPK % N/A N/A 1 MT DAP 1,57 2,25-33% 1,629-8% MOP % 466-3% Urea 5,737 7,21-18% 5,76 1% NPK 1,413 1,63-13% N/A N/A India Plant Nutrient Imports 1 MT Jun '16 DAP 965 1,11-12% % MOP % % Urea % % NPK % N/A N/A 1 MT DAP 1,558 2,55-39% 1,282 22% MOP % % Urea 1,61 1,472 9% 1,23 33% NPK % N/A N/A INR / US$ Indian Rupee US$ MT Monthly Average Prices Source: Average from several publications 67.5 Source: FOREX Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul ' PACID India c&f DAP India c&f Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 NH3 India c&f Sulphur India c&f THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP INDIA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 7/28/216 1

2 Shipments 1 Tonnes India DAP Shipments 1,6 1, Olympic Average 1,2 1, 8 6 India DAP Shipments Tonnes India MOP Direct Application Shipments Olympic Average India MOP Direct Application Shipments India Urea Shipments Olympic Average India Urea Shipments THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP INDIA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 7/28/216 2

3 Imports 1 Tonnes India DAP Imports 1,6 1, Olympic Average 1,2 1, India DAP Imports Tonnes India MOP Imports 1, 9 8 Olympic Average India MOP Imports India Urea Imports Olympic Average India Urea Imports THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP INDIA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 7/28/216 3

4 Production 1 MT Jun '16 DAP % 35 14% Urea 2,8 1,946 3% 1,848 9% NPK % N/A N/A 1 MT DAP 1, % % Urea 5,666 5,691 % 5,171 1% NPK 1,775 1,847-4% N/A N/A India Plant Nutrient Production 1 Tonnes India DAP Production Olympic Average India DAP Production India Urea Production Olympic Average India Urea Production THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP INDIA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 7/28/216 4

5 Stocks 1 Tonnes India DAP Stocks 1, 1,2 1, 8 6 Olympic Average India Plant Nutrient Stocks 1 MT Jun '16 DAP % % MOP % % Urea 1, % % NPK % N/A N/A 2 1 Tonnes 6 5 India MOP Stocks Olympic Average India Urea Stocks Olympic Average THE MOSAIC COMPANY MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP INDIA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE 7/28/216 5