Outlook for Oil Products Trade and Storage in NWE
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1 Outlook for Oil Products Trade and Storage in NWE Onur Capan, Manager Downstream Oil Service Wood Mackenzie, London StockExpo - Antwerp March 2013 Strategy with substance
2 1 Outlook for trade flows in NWE and ARA 2 Port traffic and infrastructure developments 3 Overview of storage rates 2
3 Demand in Europe has fallen and will not recover back to pre-recession levels Europe GDP forecast, 2007 and 2012 Europe Demand forecast, 2007 and Real GDP Index (2001=100) Mb/d Mb/d 2007 Forecast 2012 Forecast Series Forecast 2012 Forecast Source: Wood Mackenzie Source: History IEA, Forecast Wood Mackenzie Wood Mackenzie 3
4 Middle distillates dominate future oil demand in Europe Mt Changes in NW European oil demand by product SECA Impact: Bunker Demand Significant demand shift from fuel oil to gasoil as a result of new bunker fuel legislation comes into force in July 2015 in the SECA (Sulphur Emission Control Areas) Diesel/Gasoil demand growth in the transport sector is much larger than shown on chart. This is partly offset by declining heating oil demand (-5.1 Mt between ; -3.2 Mt between ) A small uptake in gasoline demand is expected in the longer term as new technology gasoline cars with higher fuel efficiency increase their share in new car registrations. Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Gasoline Jet/kerosene Naphtha Source: Wood Mackenzie Wood Mackenzie 4
5 Growing imbalances across most product groups Surplus NW Europe, All Supply Balances* Balances (Mt) Deficit * Includes non-refinery supply LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Source: Wood Mackenzie Wood Mackenzie 5
6 ARA currently handles a large proportion of the region s gasoline surplus 2011 Gasoline Surpluses in NWE The region s gasoline surplus reached 22 Mt in In total close to 55 Mt of gasoline transited through NWE ports. Around 53% of the exports went to North America (requiring blending for the right US specifications) and 22% to Africa (mainly Nigeria) ARA has an important role in long haul trade - Amsterdam being the region s main gasoline hub. Share of ARA in Inter-Regional Trade* Intra- Region 18.1 Mt* Share of ARA in Intra-NWE Trade* ARA *2011 gasoline trade 6
7 and the surplus is set to grow further, increasing opportunities for bulk-building, blending Gasoline Surpluses in NWE The region s total gasoline surplus is expected to grow by another 10 Mt, reach 32 Mt in While trade within NWE will remain virtually flat as declining volumes going to regional deficit markets will offset growing exports to ARA for long haul exports Gasoline Flows in ARA Due to increasing domestic gasoline production, US will import less gasoline from Europe. Being competitive in exports to other regions will be the main challenge Intra- Region 18.9 Mt ARA
8 Key export markets for European gasoline moved more deficit in 2012, but that trend will reverse Refinery closures and operational issues in the US increased the gasoline deficit in to the benefit of European gasoline exporters Capacity expansions and idled refineries returning to operation will create the reverse situation in 2013, with the North American gasoline deficit shrinking again That trend continues towards 2018, as US refiners increase throughputs, despite stagnant gasoline demand The Middle East gasoline deficit will be eroded by new refinery projects Remaining competitive in gasoline exports is therefore key Gasoline balance, kb/d ,000-1,200 North America (East) Gasoline Balances Latin America Non Euro (East) Med West Africa Middle East Source: Wood Mackenzie Wood Mackenzie 8
9 Middle Distillates trade: ARA will benefit, but also regional ports to a smaller extent NWE Middle Distillates Balances Dieselisation of the car fleet is slowing down in Europe but demand for road diesel in NWE will increase by a further 10 Mt by Big step change in 2015 when the new SECA bunker legislation takes effect: Around 12 Mt of bunker demand expected to switch from fuel oil to gasoil Mt SECA impact ~12 Mt Share of ARA in Inter-Regional Trade* Jet/Kero Diesel Share of ARA in Intra-NWE Trade* ARA *2011 diesel/gasoil trade 9
10 Russian exports is the main driver of heavy product flows Current Class III storage capacity is managing a large and complex flow of heavy fuel oil. ARA acting as a hub to redistribute fuel oil and also supply bunkers Russian exports flowing out of the Baltic is a large proportion of the heavy product traffic in the region. Of the 18 Mt of exports to the US, around 15 Mt is heavy feedstock. Russian fuel oil exports are expected to decline as refinery upgrading investments destroy supply faster than demand declines Russia s Fuel Oil Surplus 49Mt* FO 2 Mt* VGO Heavy product export duty is due to rise to 100% of the crude export tariff in 2015, which would amplify this trend, resulting in: *Argus FSU Fuel Oil Surplus Fuel Oil Deficit Bunker demand (Fuel Oil) A drop in Crude Throughput by an estimated 500,000 b/d (~25.5 Mt) as less complex refineries are pressured. High secondary processing capacity utilisation as refiners opt to export favourably taxed light end products. 10
11 1 Outlook for trade flows in NWE and ARA 2 Port traffic and infrastructure developments 3 Overview of storage rates 11
12 ARA dominates the storage landscape, volumes, and captures almost all new capacity investment Key factors driving investments in new capacity: Steady increase in rental rates in the past few years Utilisation of storage generally reported at full capacity General trend in the growing surplus of gasoline and growing deficit of distillates within NWE driving increased trade flows Reclamation of new land within port regions opening up more waterfront potential for deep-water port terminal expansion. 12
13 Historic growth in ARA supported storage rates and fuelled investments Total Refined Products In Total Refined Products Out kt Source:Eurostat Wood Mackenzie 13
14 and preliminary data indicate continued growth in 1H 2012 Total Refined Products In Total Refined Products Out Source:ESPO Wood Mackenzie 14
15 Over 5 million m 3 of new capacity for oil products in 5 years Around 2.8 million m3 was built in 2011 and 2012, bringing the total product storage capacity to over 17 million m3. With a further 2.7 million m3 planned or currently under construction, total ARA capacity is expected to reach 20 million m3. Vesta, NedStore Source: TankTerminals.com, Wood Mackenzie 15
16 1 Outlook for trade flows in NWE and ARA 2 Port traffic and infrastructure developments 3 Overview of storage rates 16
17 Storage rates show first signs of decline following a long period of steady growth Typical ARA Rental Rates NWE s supply imbalance in each of the major petroleum products has continued to increase over the past 10 years, which is the driving force behind the growth in trade flows and the sustained increase in storage rates. Rates for Class I and Class II tankage reached a plateau in recent years a direct impact of new capacity coming on stream It is likely that terminals able to offer more services such as blending and desulphurisation will be able to command a premium over this base rate. Terminals within the port of Rotterdam are able to achieve a /m3/month premium over the other ARA ports on Class III tankage. This is due to its deep water allowing some operators to handle VLCC sized vessels, providing bulk opportunities to a magnitude not available in the other ports Wood Mackenzie 17
18 Future uptake in rates is a possibility Forecast ARA Rental Rates? Despite growing trade, additional storage capacity will put downward pressure on rental rates which are expected to remain consistent through to 2015 By 2020, NWE supply demand imbalances further increases. In the absence of new capacity additions, the ratio of trade to available storage will increase, favouring an upward trend in storage rental rates. However it must be noted that any increase in rates will reduce the barriers to entry for new construction and as such this increase could drive a new wave of storage construction in the future, which would supress any expected increase in rental prices. Key uncertainties for longer term are: European GDP Future of gasoline exports Russian taxation and product exports Wood Mackenzie 18
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20 European Oil Storage: Go With the Flow Drivers of success in petroleum storage and terminalling A New Wood Mackenzie Multi-Client Study Available in 2013 Strategy with substance
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