São Paulo MARKETBEAT. Office Q Economy. Market Overview. Pipeline. SÃO PAULO OFFICE Economic Indicators. Real Estate Indicators
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1 São Paulo SÃO PAULO OFFICE Economic Indicators Net Absorption/Ask Price CBD Class AA+ Average 110,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 30,000 10,000-10,000 Vacancy CBD Class AA+ 29.0% 27.0% 25.0% 23.0% 21.0% 19.0% 17.0% 15.0% Net Absorption Q3 15 Q3 16 GDP -3.2% -3.8% Inflation 9.5% 8.5% Unemployment 8.9% 11.8% Real Estate Indicators Q3 15 Q3 16 Vacancy 26.9% 27.9% Net Absorption (.000) Under Construction (.000) Avg. Asking Rent R$110.3 R$96.8 Avg. Asking Rent 12-Months 12-Months R$ 154 R$ 134 R$ 114 R$ 94 R$ 74 R$ 54 R$ 34 R$ 14 Economy Brazilian economic recovery should take on slow pace. High product inventory and a increased idleness in industrial sector should inhibit investments, while a sluggish improvement in the labor market and negative growth in household incomes should lead to a reduced consumption until beginning of Notwithstanding, fiscal adjustments applied by the new government seem to suggest a solid return in the mid and longterm. Realistic fiscal measures, aligned with a less constrained government when it comes to providing for its debt situations are fundamental to trace perspectives to investments. Therefore, while investor confidence increases, the general economy has become less indexed, leading to more moderate inflation. Nominal and real interest rates are to decrease in this new scenario. Following the above, it is with this in mind that the Central Bank started its interest rate cuts in October (0.25%) and further reductions, at approximately 0.50%, are expected in November. Moreover, we believe that the exchange rate will tend to find its point of equilibrium around R$3.15, at the end of 2016, reinforcing the tendency in inflationary decline. Market Overview 2016 third quarter presented a vacancy rate of 27.9% for the Class AA+ CBD market, variation by 0.9 pp in relation to the previous quarter. The indicator increase for this quarter is largely due to the entry of new vacant inventory on the market. Recent deliveries of upscale developments in Pinheiros caused the CBD Class AA+ inventory in São Paulo to grow 1.5%. However, the vacancy rate may stabilize over the upcoming quarters. According to market research conducted by C&W, preleases add to about 75 thousand sqm, and these occupations should occur within the next quarters. Pipeline Resulting from a more cautious market, the volume of new deliveries will be smaller in 2016 when compared to the previous year (315 thousand sqm). 202 thousand sqm are expected for this year, and 122 thousand sqm have already been delivered thousand sqm more are expected to be delivered over the next quarter, where 14.5 thousand sqm will be incorporated to Faria Lima, 47 thousand sqm will be added to the Chucri Zaidan region, and 18 thousand sqm should complete the inventory in Vila Olímpia. cushmanwakefield.com
2 (%) Anual Change (Thousand sqm) MARKETBEAT São Paulo Occupancy New Inventory CBD Class AA+ It was observed that net absorption in the Class AA+ CDB regions in São Paulo stayed at 5.5 thousand sqm over 2016 third quarter, accumulating 92 thousand sqm over the year. Such values present an average accumulated for the three quarters at 30 thousand sqm, which is close to that of 2015 (29.7 thousand sqm). The region presenting the highest net absorption during the third quarter was Chucri Zaidan, with 6.7 thousand sqm, causing its vacancy rate to retreat by 1.4 pp (37.6%). In turn, the regions Chácara Santo Antônio and Faria Lima presented significant negative absorption rates at -5 thousand sqm and thousand sqm, increasing their vacancy rates by 3.3 pp and 1.2 pp, respectively Asking Rent Class AA+ THE NEW DELIVERIES IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016 INCREASED THE CLASS AA+ INVENTORY IN SP BY 42.5 THOUSAND SQM 50% 25% Average Asking Rent 0% The average asking rent in Class AA+ CDB regions in São Paulo reduced 4% when compared to the one in the second quarter of this year. It is worth pointing out that this drop is related to the lack of information disclosed by owners, who would rather communicate their asking rent only within the negotiation environment. -25% CBD NCBD The asking rent variation in Pinheiros region was the most significant, going from R$ 93.3 per sqm in the second quarter of 2016 to R$ 79.5 per sqm in the third quarter of this year, result of a product mix change in the region. Other regions presented no significant changes in their asking rents. It is expected that the market situation in São Paulo, favorable to tenants, continue to occur in the medium term. The high vacancy rate, resulting from the significant volume of recent deliveries along with the current economic situation, has restrained a more consistent increase in occupancy within the past year. Owners will keep on presenting appealing conditions, so as to win upscale tenants over, while new products entering the market present competitive asking rents with existing ones. Outlook Changes applied by the new government seem to suggest a solid rebound of the economy in the medium and long terms. It is expected that 202 thousand sqm of new Class AA+ developments will enter SP market over the entire year of The average asking rent decreased an 4% in relation to the preceding quarter. cushmanwakefield.com I 2
3 São Paulo SUBM ARKET BUILDINGS AVAILABLE NET INVENTORY VACANCY NET ABSORPTION UNDER ASKING RENT ASKING RENT AREA ABSORPTION RATE (,000) (,000) (Q3) (YTD) CONSTRUCTION* (ALL CLASSES) (CLASS AA+) Paulista % , R$ R$ Pinheiros % , R$ R$ Faria Lima % -4, , ,587 R$ R$ Itaim % 2, R$ R$ Vila Olimpia % , ,000 R$ R$ Berrini % 3, , R$ R$ Chac. Sto. Antonio % -5, , ,873 R$ R$ Marginal Pinheiros % 3, , ,000 R$ R$ Chucri Zaidan % 6, , ,824 R$ R$ JK % 4, , R$ R$ Santo Amaro % -3, , R$ R$ TOTAL CLASS AA+ CBD Class AA , % 5,558 92, ,284 R$ *We consider buildings in under construction to Q Main Transactions Q BUILDING SQM TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBM ARKET EZ Towers - Torre B 24,000 Amil Leasing Chucri Zaidan EZ Towers - Torre A 10,000 Huawei Technologies Leasing Chucri Zaidan Eldorado Business Tower 4,058 HBO Brasil Renewal Pinheiros EZ Towers - Torre A 3,600 Evonik Industries Leasing Chucri Zaidan Wtorre JK - Torre D 2,034 Brookfield Brasil Leasing JK About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a global leader in commercial real estate services, helping clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. The firm s 43,000 employees in more than 60 countries provide deep local and global insights that create significant value for occupiers and investors around the world. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms in the world with revenues of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facilities services (branded C&W Services), global occupier services, investment management (branded DTZ Investors), tenant representation and valuations & advisory. To learn more, visit or on Twitter. Copyright 2015 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. Gustavo Garcia Head of Market Research & Business Intelligence South America Praça Professor José Lannes, 40 3º andar São Paulo SP CEP: Brasil Tel: gustavo.garcia@sa.cushwake.com cushmanwakefield.com I 3
4 Rio de Janeiro RIO DE JANEIRO OFFICE Economic Indicators Net Absorption/Asking Rent CBD Class AA+ Average 50,000 25, Q15 3Q16 GDP -3.2% -3.8% Inflation Rate 9.5% 8.5% Unemployment 8.9% 11.8% Real Estate Indicators 3Q15 3Q16 Vacancy 21.5% 30.5% Net Absorption (,000) Under Construction (,000) Avg. Asking Rent R$ R$ Month 12-Month R$ 140 R$ 120 R$ 100 R$ 80 Economy Brazilian economic recovery should take on slow pace. High product inventory and a increased idleness in industrial sector should inhibit investments, while a sluggish improvement in the labor market and negative growth in household incomes should lead to a reduced consumption until beginning of Notwithstanding, fiscal adjustments applied by the new government seem to suggest a solid return in the mid and long-term. Realistic fiscal measures, aligned with a less constrained government when it comes to providing for its debt situations are fundamental to trace perspectives to investments. Therefore, while investor confidence increases, the general economy has become less indexed, leading to more moderate inflation. Nominal and real interest rates are to decrease in this new scenario. Following the above, it is with this in mind that the Central Bank started its interest rate cuts in October (0.25%) and further reductions, at approximately 0.50%, are expected in November. Moreover, we believe that the exchange rate will tend to find its point of equilibrium around R$3.15, at the end of 2016, reinforcing the tendency in inflationary decline. Market Overview -25,000-50,000 Net Absorption Avg. Asking Rent R$ 60 R$ 40 Still reflecting Petrobras take off from upscale office spaces, vacancy rate on the Class AA+ CBD market in Rio de Janeiro remained stable over the quarters. It is observed that new deliveries of prime category buildings tend to be postponed, aiming at combining new incoming office spaces with occupancy. Vacancy CBD Class AA+ 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Pipeline Although this quarter's delivery volume was of 14 thousand sqm, the increase in inventory will not influence vacancy rates in Rio de Janeiro in the long run, since this building already has its occupancy defined. Also, 274 thousand sqm of new Class AA+ office spaces in the CBD regions in Rio de Janeiro are expected for Should this become a reality, these new deliveries will bring vacancy rates to even higher levels.. cushmanwakefield.com
5 (%) Annual Change (Thousand sqm) MARKETBEAT Rio de Janeiro Occupancy Net absorption in the third quarter was positive at 9.4 thousand sqm for the Class AA+ CDB market, particularly boosted by occupancies occurring in Centro (+3.6 thousand sqm) and the Orla region (+3.4 thousand sqm). Over the next year, the upscale market occupancy rate should be boosted by the State Government's entry in corporate developments. New Inventory CBD Class AA THE NEW DELIVERIES IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016 INCREASED THE CLASS AA+ INVENTORY IN RJ BY 14 THOUSAND SQM Asking Rent Class AA+ Average Asking Rent The average asking rent value for Class AA+ CBD developments stayed at R$ per sqm over 2016 third quarter. The slight increase in relation to the previous quarter is mainly a result of additional information available on the market. Centro was the region that presented the highest rise in average asking rents, closing at R$ per sqm; however, the highest asking rent value in Rio de Janeiro is still found in Zona Sul (R$ 260 per sqm). 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% CBD NCBD It is expected that the upward trend in vacancy rates in Rio de Janeiro continue in the medium term, being reversed only when situation faced by main sectors comprising the demand for office space in the city improves. Furthermore, reasonable asking rents in Porto or Cidade Nova regions may snatch the tenants from Centro, who find themselves in renegotiation period, becoming a feasible alternative for the occupants. Outlook Changes applied by the new government seem to suggest a solid rebound of the economy in the medium term. The vacancy rate for Class AA+ developments in CBD regions in Rio de Janeiro was 30.5%. Should the pipeline of 274 thousand sqm become a reality, vacancy rates may reach even higher levels. cushmanwakefield.com I 2
6 Rio de Janeiro SUBM ARKET BUILDINGS AVAILABLE AREA NET ABSORPTION NET ABSORPTION INVENTORY VACANCY UNDER ASKING RENT ASKING RENT (.000) (.000) RATE (Q3) (YTD) CONSTRUCTION* (ALL CLASSES) (CLASS AA+) Centro Cidade Nova Orla Zona Sul Porto Barra da Tijuca % 3, , ,926 R$ R$ % 1, R$ R$ % 3, ,437 R$ R$ % R$ R$ % ,809 R$ R$ , % -14, ,640 R$ R$ TOTAL CLASS AA+ CBD Classe AA+ 59 1, % 9,449-62, ,172 R$ *We consider buildings in under construction to Q Main Transactions Q BUILDING SQM TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBM ARKET Centro Empresarial M ourisco - Torre Pão de Açucar 2,662 ENEVA Leasing Orla Centro Administrativo Cidade Nova 1,850 Ernst Young Leasing Cidade Nova Vista Mauá 1,835 Deloitte Brasil Leasing Centro About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a global leader in commercial real estate services, helping clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. The firm s 43,000 employees in more than 60 countries provide deep local and global insights that create significant value for occupiers and investors around the world. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms in the world with revenues of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facilities services (branded C&W Services), global occupier services, investment management (branded DTZ Investors), tenant representation and valuations & advisory. To learn more, visit or on Twitter. Copyright 2015 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. Gustavo Garcia Head of Market Research & Business Intelligence South America Praça Professor José Lannes, 40 3º andar São Paulo SP CEP: Brasil Tel: gustavo.garcia@sa.cushwake.com cushmanwakefield.com I 3
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