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1 THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD 550 Kearny Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA (415) Fax: (415) COPYRIGHT 2000 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release #1963 Release Date: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 GORE MAINTAINING ELEVEN POINT LEAD OVER BUSH IN CALIFORNIA. NADER POLLS 7% OF THE VOTE. By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) Democrat Vice President Al Gore leads Republican Texas Governor George W. Bush by eleven percentage points (46% to 35%) among Californians likely to vote in this year s presidential race. These findings indicate that the relative voter support of the two presumptive major party candidates has not changed much over the past four months, despite the inclusion of consumer activist Ralph Nader (Green Party) and TV commentator Pat Buchanan (Reform Party) as presidential candidates in fall general election trial heats. Nader currently polls 7% and Buchanan 2% when the two are listed with Gore and Bush in a four-way test of strength. Following is the trend in likely voter preference for President going back to March Table 1 Trend of general election presidential preferences in California Gore Bush Nader Buchanan Undecided June % Late February % Early February % January % December % October % August % March % Note: General election preferences for Nader and Buchanan were not measured in surveys prior to June The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent and impartial public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of its survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives support from academic, government, media, and private sources.

2 Tuesday, June 20, 2000 Page 2 Nader and Buchanan second choice preferences It appears that about half of Nader s 7% overall support (4%) comes from voters who otherwise would be voting for Gore if the consumer activist were not on the ballot. Most of the rest of Nader s supporters remain undecided when asked for their second choice. Buchanan s supporters show a greater preference for Bush than Gore. Demographic sub-group analysis Gore s statewide lead is derived from his obtaining nearly two to one voter support in Los Angeles County and maintaining a greater than two to one lead in the San Francisco Bay Area. These two regions account for nearly half of the likely electorate. Bush, on the other hand, holds a slim four-point lead in the nine Southern California counties other than Los Angeles, and a twelve-point lead in the 39 Northern California counties outside the Bay Area. Gore is holding on to 80% of the Democratic vote, while 73% of Republicans are lining up behind Bush. Currently 11% of California Republicans are supporting Gore and 12% are undecided at this point, while just 7% of Democrats defect to Bush and 6% are undecided. Among non-partisan or minor party voters Gore leads Bush narrowly by 30% to 26%. Large segments of this group favor Nader (18%), while 4% favor Buchanan and 22% are undecided. Gore holds a slim six-point edge over Bush among men (43% to 37%), but leads by 15 points among women (48% to 33%). However, there is a big difference in voter preferences among married and unmarried women. Bush leads Gore 47% to 34% among married women, but trails the Vice President 58% to 24% among unmarried women. The presence of children in a household also has an effect on voters preferences. In households where children are present, Bush and Gore are running about even (43% for Bush and 41% for Gore), while in households where no children reside, Gore leads Bush 48% to 31%. Gore and Bush are running about even among white non-hispanic voters (Gore 40% vs. Bush 38%). However, among Latino voters Gore is preferred 64% to 25%, and among all other racial/ethnic voters he leads Bush 59% to 23%. Gore leads Bush across each of the various age groups, but has his biggest lead among young voters under age 30.

3 Tuesday, June 20, 2000 Page 3 Table 2 Presidential preferences of Californians by subgroup Gore Bush Nader Buchanan Undecided Statewide 46% (.26) Los Angeles County 55% (.32) Other Southern California 38% (.23) San Francisco Bay Area 58% (.19) Other Northern California 33% ** 10 (.46) Democrats 80% (.37) Republicans 11% (.17) Non-partisan/Other 30% (.47) Men 43% (.53) Women 48% (.21) Married Women 34% 47 6 ** 13 (.32) Unmarried Women 58% (.32) Children in Household 41% (.68) No Children In Household 48% (.71) White non-hispanic 40% (.15) Latino 64% (.14) Other* 59% 23 3** 15 (.14) 18 29* 57% 24 5 ** 14 (.22) % (.19) % (.18) % 35 5 ** 13 (.27) 60 or Older 43% * small sample base ** Less than ½ of 1%

4 Tuesday, June 20, 2000 Page 4 Voter expectations of outcome Voters in this sample were asked, apart from whom they now support, who they thought was likely to win election in November. While actual voting preferences in this state favor Gore 46% to 35%, Californians are evenly divided over who they think will prevail on election day. Analysis reveals that Gore supporters are somewhat less confident that he will win than are Bush voters. Table 3 Apart from whom you support, who do you think is likely to win the Presidential election in November? Total Prefer Bush Prefer Gore Prefer another candidate/ Undecided Bush 42% 77% 18% 37% Gore No Opinion Candidate image profiles Gore s overall image profile among California voters is more positive than negative 57% favorable and 34% unfavorable. On the other hand, California voter impressions of Bush are more negative than positive 41% favorable vs. 48% unfavorable. While Nader has a very positive image profile among the California electorate (50% favorable and 22% unfavorable), voters have a heavily negative perception of Buchanan - 61% unfavorable and 15% favorable.

5 Tuesday, June 20, 2000 Page 5 Table 4 California voter images of the Presidential candidates Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Al Gore Total 57% 34 9 Democrats 86% 10 4 Republicans 23% 69 8 Others 55% George W. Bush Total 41% Democrats 15% 7312 Republicans 74% 17 9 Others 40% Ralph Nader Total 50% Democrats 59% Republicans 33% Others 59% 2318 Pat Buchanan Total 15% Democrats 11% Republicans 22% Others 11% How would Clinton and former President Bush fare? In this survey voters were asked their voting preferences under the supposition that incumbent President Bill Clinton could run for a third term against Texas Governor George W. Bush. In addition, Gore was pitted against Bush s father, former President George Bush who left office in 1993, in another simulation. The results indicate that Clinton, like Gore, beats the Texas Governor by double digit margins (53% to 39%). In addition, Gore is preferred over former President Bush by a 10-point margin (52% to 42%)

6 Tuesday, June 20, 2000 Page 6 Table 5 If (President Clinton) (former President Bush) were running again for President and he was opposing (George W. Bush) (Al Gore) in this year s election, for whom would you vote? Clinton George W. Bush Al Gore Former President Bush Statewide 53% 39 52% 42 Democrats 84% 9 85% 12 Republicans 17% 78 14% 80 Non-partisan/Other 49% 34 47% 39 Men 49% 42 46% 47 Women 57% 37 57% 38 (Differences between the sum of the percentages for each pairing and 10% equal proportion with no opinion) -30-

7 Tuesday, June 20, 2000 Page 7 Information About this Report Sample details The results in this report are based on a telephone survey conducted June 9-18, 2000 in English and Spanish among 1,003 California adults, of whom 642 can be considered likely voters in the November 7 general election. According to statistical theory, survey results from the overall likely voter sample have a sampling error of +/- 4.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Difference results could occur because of biased in question wording or sequencing or through undetected errors in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Extensive efforts were made to minimize such errors. Questions asked I am going to read some names of people who are in public affairs and politics. As I read each name, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don t know enough about that person to have an opinion. Is your opinion of favorable or unfavorable? (NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) There will be an election in November for President. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were (NAMES AND PARTIES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER), for whom would you vote? (IF FIRST CHOICE GIVEN:) Who would be your second choice? Apart from whom you prefer for President, who do you think is likely to win the presidential election in November -- Bush or Gore? Suppose Bill Clinton could run again for President and he was facing George W. Bush in the November election. If these were the choices, who would you vote for -- Clinton or Bush? Suppose George W. Bush s father, George Bush Senior, could run again for President, and he was facing Al Gore in the November election. If these were the choices, who would you vote for -- Gore or former President Bush?