Energy Efficiency: at the center of the climate change challenge

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency: at the center of the climate change challenge ATEE COP 21, December 11, 2015 Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment (Climate) Division

2 efficient The little engine that could

3 Prologue

4 Mt CO2e The global challenge: Climbing down the mountain Getting to the top is optional. Getting down is mandatory. Ed Viesturs DS

5 Our mitigation story

6 Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions Gt CO Source: ETP 2014

7 Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions Gt CO Nuclear 7% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% Renewables 30% End-use fuel switching 9% CCS 14% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% Source: ETP 2014

8 Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions Gt CO Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% EE provides largest contribution to abatement at 40% Source: ETP 2014

9 USD Billion Energy efficiency investment: bigger than you might think 400 Investments in various fuels Energy efficiency* Renewable power** Fossil fired power*** Upstream oil, gas and coal**** * IEA (2014), Energy Efficiency Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA. ** IEA (2015), Renewable Energy Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA. *** Frankfurt School-UNEP Center (2015), Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment, Frankfurt: Frankfurt School of Management, UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. **** IEA (2014), World Energy Investment Outlook, Paris: OECD/IEA.

10 Big... but not big enough... Cumulative Investment in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, New Policies Scenario Scenario Trillion dollars (2012) WEO 2013 Special Report Fossil fuels Power T&D Low-carbon Energy Efficiency Spending on energy efficiency in the 450 (2DS) scenario needs to top over $600 billion/yr

11 Potential for energy efficiency scale-up is there Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012 New Policies Scenario 100% 80% 60% Unrealised energy efficiency potential Realised energy efficiency potential 40% 20% Industry Transport Power generation Buildings Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035

12 Energy efficiency: the gift that keeps on giving... in so many ways

13 Energy efficiency: more productive that we give it credit for EE keeps producing : 1999 Energy Efficiency

14 EJ EE s avoided consumption in IEA topped 22 EJ (520 Mtoe) in 2014 Avoided consumption generated by energy efficiency increased by 10% in Avoided TFC in IEA countries from energy efficiency investments made since Avoided consumption IEA countries avoided more consumption in 2014 than the TFC of Korea and Japan combined

15 EE is saving household, business and government consumers billions each year USD billion (2014) IEA countries saved USD 550 billion in TFC in 2014 as a result of energy efficiency investments since Avoided expenditure in IEA countries from energy efficiency investments made since Cumulative savings = USD 5.7 trillion Annual savings are greater than the EU s fuel import bill

16 GtCO2 A clean energy source: efficiency reduces emissions Without energy efficiency investments, estimated IEA member country emissions would have been 870 Mt CO 2 higher in 2014 IEA emissions from fossil fuel combustion and emissions savings from energy efficiency investments since Cumulative savings = 10.2 GtCO 2 Emissions savings Emissions Energy efficiency has helped to make the 2 degrees target more achievable by lowering emissions to date

17 The multiple benefits of EE

18 Dirty air prompts free public transport in Paris Public transportation in the capital will be "gratuit" from Friday morning to Sunday night, as officials battle against a spike in "dangerously" poor air quality. Velib' rental bikes and the car-sharing Autolib' scheme are also on the house. Shifting to more efficient transport to fight air pollution March 11, 2014 Credit: Patrick Kovarik AFP

19 Energy Efficiency: now showing around the World

20 Emissions reductions and economic growth worldwide GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario, relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030 European Union Russia United States Middle East China India Southeast Asia Efficiency Inefficient coal plants Renewables Methane reductions Fossil-fuel subsidies Latin America Africa Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Energy and Climate Change (2015). The measures in the Bridge Scenario apply flexibly across regions, with energy efficiency & renewables as key measures worldwide

21 Shifting geography of growth in Global Energy Demand Over 95% of the projected growth in energy demand between now and 2035 happens outside the OECD (NPS) Source: based on World Energy Outlook 2014

22 Changing Geography: OECD and non- OECD action for a low-emissions future 60 GtCO Other OECD 9% United States 13% European Union 7% Other non-oecd 15% Other emerging economies 14% India 13% China 29%

23 Changing Geography: OECD and non- OECD action for a low-emissions future 60 GtCO Other OECD 9% United States 13% European Union 7% Other non-oecd 15% Other emerging economies 14% India 13% China 29% About 70% of the decarbonization actions need to take place in non-oecd countries

24 Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP EE: Decoupling GDP from Energy TPES 6DS GDP (right axis)

25 Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP EE: Decoupling GDP from Energy TPES 6DS BAU-Low EE GDP (right axis)

26 Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP EE: Decoupling GDP from Energy TPES 6DS BAU-Low EE 4DS 2DS High Productivity GDP (right axis)

27 Energy efficiency for many emerging economies: from doing more with less to to doing even more with more

28 Energy efficiency for many emerging economies: from doing more with less to doing even more with more raising standards of living and promoting prosperity

29 IEA messages to COP21 To shift the energy sector onto a low-carbon path that supports economic growth & energy access: 1. Take 5 key actions, led by energy efficiency & renewables, to peak then reduce global energy emissions 2. Use the Paris Agreement to drive short-term actions consistent with long-term emission goals 3. Accelerate energy technology innovation to make decarbonisation easier and even more affordable 4. Enhance energy security by making the energy sector more resilient to climate change impacts

30 Et après Paris?

31 Gt Beyond INDCs: the need for more 36 INDC Scenario Scenario Room for further policies promoting energy efficiency WEO 2015 CC Special Report

32 Epilogue

33 2 O C vs 4/6 O C?

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36 Below 2 O C vs 4 O C

37 Thank you the little engine that can beat climate change