Alaska s Economic Climate. November 16th, 2016 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist

Transcription

1 Alaska s Economic Climate November 16th, 2016 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist

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3 Alaska Past Long Term Trends No Longer A Road Map To The Future (basically 27 years of growth) Number of Jobs 340, , , , , , 21 years of growth ends Lost a few jobs in in 2009 Dropping in , , , , ,000 Oil Revenue Party 1990 full recovery record annual count begins and goes on for 19 years Alaska s Great Recession *preliminary

4 Employment Growth Gone In 2016 In AK 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% * *based on first 6 months -1.4%

5 This Is How Things Are Shaping Up In AK In ,600 Number of Jobs Gained and Lost in 2016, first 6 months Total Health Care Federal Gov. Local Gov. (100) Retail -2,400 Oil and Gas -1,500 PBS -1,400-1,200 ConstrucMon State gov.

6 Does this look like a recession?

7 Alaska's GDP Numbers Interesting Declined last 3 quarters--3rd, 4th of 2015 and another 1 percent during first quarter 2016 $ billions $40.3 $44.9 $49.3 $55.4 $50.5 $54.2 $59.3 $61.6 $59.9 $58.1 $ Source: BEA

8 Alaska's Personal Income Numbers Still Looking Good-- First 2 Quarters of 2016 Still Slightly Positive $ billions $32.5 $34.9 $36.4 $36.9 $30.9 $30.9 $28.4 $24.9 $26.4 $39.0 $41.3 $ * Source: BEA *based on 2 quarters

9 2500 Alaska Foreclosures Statewide, 1st Qrt nd Qrt 2016 Annual Vacancy Rates Municipality of Anchorage 4.3% 6.2% 5.2% 6.9% 4.7% 1.8% 2.6% 3.2% 3.8% Fairbanks North Star Borough 8.3% 5.8% 9.9% 12.0% 10.6% 5.0% 8.3% 15.6% 11.2% Juneau Borough 5.0% 3.8% 4.2% 4.9% 5.5% 4.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% Kenai Peninsula Borough 12.3% 5.1% 13.0% 9.4% 8.0% 8.6% 5.5% 6.7% 8.8% Ketchikan Gateway Borough 13.4% 17.8% 7.5% 8.4% 7.1% 12.0% 8.2% 10.4% 9.3% Kodiak Island Borough 7.5% 7.4% 8.2% 5.5% 4.0% 1.3% 2.3% 5.7% 8.0% Matanuska-Susitna Borough 6.2% 3.3% 5.0% 9.3% 5.6% 5.3% 3.5% 5.3% 3.6% Sitka Borough 8.1% 2.9% 4.4% 6.2% 11.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.2% 8.3% Valdez-Cordova CA 4.8% 8.3% 26.2% 8.6% 7.6% 6.4% 3.1% 3.5% 5.9% Wrangell Borough-Petersburg CA 17.5% 22.1% 8.2% 12.7% 8.8% 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 9.7% Surveywide 6.6% 6.8% 7.2% 8.2% 6.7% 3.9% 4.4% 6.2% 5.8% 1000 Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis SecYon and the Alaska Housing Finance CorporaYon; Annual ResidenYal Rental Survey 500 0

10 12% Unemployment Rates, Alaska and U.S. January 2005 to September % U.S. 8% Alaska 6.9% 6% 4% 5.0%

11 Federal Employment Is Growing Again In AK 17,065 17,558 17,037 16,390 15,473 14,869 14,800 15, * *based on first 9 months of 2016.

12 Military Numbers Have Trended Down Uniformed military in Alaska 24,449 22,675 23,141 23,195 22,438 23,004 21,989 21,067 20,914 20,

13 2,000,000 Visitors Alaska's Visitor Industry Fully Recovered 1,950,000 1,900,000 1,850,000 1,800,000 1,750,000 1,700,000 1,650, Source: Mcdowell Group

14 Alcohol Consumption In Alaska--Any Pattern? Millions of gallons of beer, wine and liquor consumption in AK Source: AK Department of Revenue

15 1,600 Alaska's Timber Industy Employment--Not Much Change 1,400 1,200 1, * *Based on first 6 months-qcew, 113,321,1153

16 Little Change For Mining Employment In Alaska 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, * *Based on first 6 months-qcew,

17 Gold Looking Pre[y Shiny Again

18 An Economic Comeback Kid --Toying with Gold Rush Peak 1,200 Gold production in thousands of troy ounces, 1900 to , Source: Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys

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20 Oil Industry Losses Began Last Year May June -100 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept *Total oil industry employment was 10,300, September ,300-1,700-1,700-2,000-2,100-2,700-2,600-3,200-3,300-3,500-3,700

21 Previous Oil And Gas Employment Losses In AK ,200-1, , * -9.0% -9.0% -15.0% -16.0% -21.0% *first 6 months of 2016 compared to same period of 2015

22 Alaska s High Earners Under Thirty

23 Fishing Employment In AK Has Remained Largely PosiMve

24 State Government Employment May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept *Total State Government Employment was 24,400 September ,000-1,200-1,300-1,200-1,300-1,300-1,300-1,200-1,100-1,000-1,400-1,500-1,500

25 Alaska s Biggest Current Challenge- Oil Revenues

26 Part of the Exclusive Club Ranking State Median Household Income Maryland $75,847 2 Hawaii $73,486 3 Alaska $73,355 4 New Jersey $72,222 5 Connecticut $71,346 U.S. $55,775 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS,

27 Alaska Leads U.S. States in Well-Being for First Time by Dan Wi\ers Story Highlights Hawaii and South Dakota round out top three wellbeing states West Virginia ranks last for the sixth straight year Hawaii and Colorado only states in top 10 every year since '08

28 AK's Population Grew Lots During The Great Recession But Now Slowing (2015 population was 737,625) 16,037 Annual gains 11,010 9,112 8,498 4,

29 AK's Migration Story 8,664 3,009 1,131 1, ,346-6,740-6, = 46,323 moved out, 39,549 moved, in for net loss of -6,774

30 15,000 Total Employment Change Same month, compared to the previous year 10,000 5,000 0 February, (-0.4 %) -5,000-10,000-15,000-20,000 September, ,500 (-7.5 %)

31 Months Of Over-the-year Job Losses For Selected Industries During Alaska s 1980 s Great Recession Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Total Employment 25 months Mining ConstrucMon TransportaMon, CommunicaMon and UMliMes Trade Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Services and Miscellaneous 13 months 56 months 46 months 26 months 43 months 18 months State Government Local Government 18 months 23 months

32 Tuesday, January 27, 2015 Forecasting the future But Laurence C. Smith warms right to it in The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization s Northern Future (Plume, 2010). He s a professor of earth, planetary, and space sciences at UCLA, and used model projections and data to form his main thesis: Countries north of the equator will grow ever more powerful, while countries to the south will vie for survival. Indeed, boomtowns will pop up in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Russia and Scandinavia. As the permafrost melts, we ll build roads, bringing construction jobs and a real estate rush.

33 We Remain Solidly Akers When It Comes To Our Pickups Number of registered pickups 230, , , , , , ,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 49,530 snow machines, peaked at 55,249 in 2008

34 Questions?