Eric P. Loewen, Ph.D. President American Nuclear Society. City College of New York Student Section of the American Nuclear Society October 13, 2011
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1 Eric P. Loewen, Ph.D. President American Nuclear Society City College of New York Student Section of the American Nuclear Society October 13, 2011
2 Yamadamachi, March 11, 2011 Associated Press
3 Fukushima Daiichi, March
4 American Nuclear Society
5 History of Probabilistic Risk Assessments of Severe Reactor Accidents
6 U.S. Severe Accident Documents
7 WASH 740, published 1957
8 WASH 740 Table of Contents
9 WASH 740 Appendix C - Fission Product Activity in a 500,000 tkw Reactor
10 WASH 740 Appendix D Effects of Fission Product Release on Humans And Land Use For Strontium-90: maximum permissible body dosage maintained over a working lifetime the average amount over 40 years would be of that originally present
11 WASH 740 Appendix E Diffusion, Deposition, And Rainout of the Radioactive Cloud
12 Chernobyl, May 1986
13 WASH 1400, published 1975 Professor Rasmussen
14 Frequency of Fatalities due to Man-Caused Events
15 Frequency of Fatalities due to Natural Events
16 WASH 1400
17 WASH 1400
18 Probability Distribution for Early Fatalities per Reactor Year Probability Fatalities
19 WASH Who did this study and how much effort was involved? 2. What kind of nuclear power plants are covered by the study? 3. Can a nuclear power plant explode like an atom bomb? 4. How is risk defined? 5. What causes the risks associated with nuclear power plant accidents? 6. How can radioactivity be released? 7. How might a core melt accident occur? 8. What features are provided in reactors to cope with a core melt accident? 9. How might the Loss-of-Coolant Accident lead to a core melt? 10. How might a reactor transient lead to a core melt? 11. How likely is a core melt accident? 12. What is the nature of the health effects that a core melt accident might produce? 13. What are the most likely consequences of a core melt accident? 14. How does average annual risk from nuclear accidents compare to other common risks? 15. What is the number of fatalities and injuries expected as a result of a core melt accident? 16. What is the magnitude of the latent, or long-term, health effects? 17. What type of property damage might a core melt accident produce? 18. What would be the cost of the consequences of a core melt accident? 19. What is the chance of a reactor meltdown in year 2000 if 1000 reactors are operating? 20. How do we know that the study has included all accidents in the analysis? 21. What techniques were used in performing the study?
20 NUREG-1150, published 1990
21 Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Evaluted in NUREG-1150
22 NRC Objectives for NUREG-1150 Assess Possible BWR & PWR Severe Accidents Assess Public Risks Update 1975 WASH-1400 Risk Assessment Process Identify Plant-Specific Risks Summarize the Risk Analyses
23 NUREG-1150 Table 2: NUREG-1150 Key Plant Attributes Attribute Surry (Ch3) Peach Bottom Sequoyah Grand Gulf Zion (Ch7) (Ch4) (Ch5) (Ch6) Plant type PWR (3 loop) BWR 4 PWR (4 loop) BWR-6 PWR (4 loop) Battery 2 hrs hrs 2 hrs 12 hrs (not given) time Mean core damage frequency per reactor year 3 E-5 3 E-6 4 E-5 3 E-6 2 E-4 Range of time to core damage Maximum early fatalities 5 min to 8 hours 15 min to 13 hours Not provided 20 min to 12 hours Not provided 1, , ,000
24 NRC Guidance For Use of NUREG-1150 Examination of Accidents Accident Management Strategies Improving Containment Evaluating Plant Operational Features Strategies for Implementing Safety Goals Emergency Planning Prioritizing Research Projects Prioritizing Generic Issues Applying PRA to Routine Inspections
25 Comparison of Early Fatality Risks
26 Probability of One or More Early Fatalities
27 Identification and Evaluation Of PWR In-Vessel Severe Accident Management Strategies (NUREG-5856)
28 Reactor Safety Top Level Logic Tree
29 Classification of Proposed Strategies
30 Identification and Assessment of BWR In-Vessel Severe Accident Mitigation Strategies (NUREG-5869)
31 NUREG-5869 Table of Contents
32 NUREG-5869
33 Station Blackout Involving Loss of AC Electrical Power
34 Source-Range Detector Drive Unit And Locations of Detector
35 Courage to go forward
36
37 Fukushima Prefecture
38 Georgia, U.S.A. April 2011
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42 Fukushima-Daiichi, April 2011
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44 Pori, Finland 2010 Guardian, UK
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47 All societies need stable, abundant energy
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Results and Insights of Internal Fire and Internal Flood Analyses of the Surry Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant during Mid-Loop Operations*
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