Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Forecast Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

Transcription

1 February 6, 2014 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Forecast Saskatoon, Saskatchewan INFORMATION, INTELLIGENCE, INSIGHT

2 Presentation Overview Mining Industry HR Council Project overview and methodology Labour force characteristics in Saskatchewan The forecasts Hiring Requirements Available Talent The gap

3 Mining Industry Human Resources Council Who we are: National Council for the Minerals and Metals Sector 15-person Board of Directors 16 staff in Ottawa and Vancouver Over 250+ industry volunteers What we do: Identify national HR challenges and opportunities for the minerals and metals industry Create national solutions through collaboration, partnerships and synergy

4 MiHR Board

5 Standing Committees and Working Groups National LMI Advisory Committee 3 National Standing Committees Certification, Mining Essentials, Research 3 Project Steering Committees 7 National Occupational Standards Development Committees

6 MiHR Programming is Designed to Address Key Mining Industry HR Issues National Occupational Standards, Training and Certification Mining HR Supply Optimization Labour Market Information, Intelligence, Insight

7 An Initiative of Saskatchewan Mining Association (SMA) and International Minerals Innovation Institute (IMMI)

8 Background 2008 and 2011 reports Ten year Hiring Requirements Highest demand occupations (highest hiring requirements) Biggest gap (hiring requirements available talent) 2008 ( ) 2011 ( ) 13,738 Trades Miners Labourers Mine and mill supervisors Heavy Equipment Operators n/a 15,100 Miners Heavy Equipment Operators Truck Drivers Millwrights/Ind. Mechanics Heavy Equipment Mechanics Miners Heavy Equipment Operators Mine and Mill Supervisors Millwrights/Ind. Mechanics

9 2014 Project Objectives Update data to latest available Assess occupational structure in Saskatchewan mining workforce Forecast Hiring requirements, Available Talent and gaps 10 year time horizon Three economic scenarios

10 Activities 1. Conduct occupational analysis 2. Assess labour force characteristics 3. Analyze economic trends and forecasts 4. Develop hiring requirements forecasts By sub-sector, region and occupation 5. Develop Available Talent forecasts by occupation and conduct gap analysis

11 Methodology and Analytical Tools Two econometric forecasting models Hiring Requirements Available Talent Industry surveys Industry Validation

12 Available Talent Model Assess the availability of talent on a occupation by occupation basis Supply in 2015 = Supply in (plus) Entrants (school leavers, in-migration, others) - (minus) Exits (out-migration, retirement, others) Calculate Mining`s Share of Available talent

13 Industry Definition MiHR forecasts include Exploration Extraction and Processing Support Services and Contractors Minerals Fabrication/Manufacturing

14 Occupation Definitions 2011 forecasts covered MiHR`s standard 66 occupations 2014 forecasts include four new occupations: Power Engineers Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians Industrial Instrument technicians and mechanics Information Systems Analysts Separated Environmental Engineers from Civil

15 Overview of Economic Conditions: Setting the Scenarios

16 Change in GDP, Canada and Saskatchewan

17 Unemployment, by province, 2014

18 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Employment in Saskatchewan s Mining Industry ( )

19 Commodity Price Forecasts, World Bank

20 Change in Employment, Production and Price of Uranium in Canada

21 Saskatchewan Mining Industry Commodity Mix - Share of Mineral Sales

22 Mining Industry Labour Market Trends

23 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Total Employment in the Mining Industry, Saskatchewan, Exploration Mineral Fabrication Support services for mining Extraction and Milling Total mining industry

24 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Employment by Mining Sub-sector, Canada and Saskatchewan, % 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Exploration Mineral Fabrication Support services for mining Extraction and Milling Canada Saskatchewan

25 Commuter Workforce in Saskatchewan Exporting Commuters 2 % of the workforce commutes elsewhere for work 8 % of industry workers live in Saskatchewan but work outside the province (~ 1,400) Where do they work? 69% in Alberta 22% in Manitoba A few in BC, Ontario, NWT

26 Commuter Workforce in Saskatchewan Importing Commuters 2 % of the general Saskatchewan workforce lives elsewhere 5 % of Saskatchewan mining industry employees live outside the province (900) Where do they come from? Manitoba 39 %, Alberta 37 % BC 11 %, Ontario 7% Quebec and NB

27 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Age Structure Canada and Saskatchewan, 2014

28 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Age Structure, Total and Mining, Saskatchewan

29 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Educational Attainment Total and Mining, Saskatchewan, 2014

30 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Diversity Total and Mining, Saskatchewan 2014

31 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Diversity - Occupational Structure of Employment, 2014

32 Saskatchewan Mining Labour Market Trends Factors that facilitate employment of Aboriginal Peoples in Saskatchewan s Mining Industry, 2014

33 Overview of MiHR s Labour Market Forecasts

34 MiHR s Forecasting: Three Main Parts 1. Hiring Requirements 2. Available Talent 3. Gap Analysis

35 1. Hiring Requirements 2. Available Talent 3. Gap Analysis How many people does the industry need to hire over the next 10 years?

36 Hiring Requirements Model Net change in employment (all mining) Replacement requirements Retirement Others Breakdown by occupation, sector, region

37 Saskatchewan s Cumulative Hiring Requirements Forecast,by Scenario to 2024 Net Change in Employment Replacement Requirements Retirement Non- Retirement Cumulative Hiring Requirements Contractionary -3,660 3,400 8,950 8,675 Baseline ,640 9,870 12,990 Expansionary 3,350 4,090 11,020 18,450

38 Cumulative Hiring Requirements Forecast Year-to-Year INSERT YEAR BY YEAR GRAPH

39 Cumulative Hiring Requirements Forecast by Saskatchewan s Mining Industry Sector Employment in 2014 Net Change in Employment Replacement Requirements Retirement Non- Retirement Cumulative Hiring Requirements Extraction and Milling 9, ,655 4,481 6,017 Mining Support Services 9, ,535 4,164 5,515 Mineral Exploration 1, Minerals Fabrication 1, ,148

40 Hiring Requirements Forecast By Regions Cumulative Hiring Requirements Forecast,,Saskatchewan Regions (North, South), Extraction Activities only, Baseline Scenario to 2024 Total Employment 2014 Net Change in Employment Replacement Requirements Retirement Non- Retirement Cumulative Hiring Requirements South 5, ,010 2,740 3,672 North 3, ,750 2,355

41 1. Hiring Requirements 2. Available Talent 3. Gap Analysis How many people will become available to offset the hiring requirements over the next 10 years?

42 Available Talent Forecast Methodology Occupation forecast 71 key mining occupations The main sources of new entrants include: school leavers (high school, PSE) net international migration net interprovincial migration and others, such as people changing occupations and those re-entering the workforce after a temporary absence.

43 Available Talent Forecast Mining s Share of the Selected 71 Occupations Total Entrants for 71 Occupations (all industry sectors) Mining's Share of entrants for 71 Occupations ,882 31,102 60,833 1,456 4,600 8,655

44 Available Talent Forecast by Broad Occupational Categories Baseline Scenario 2024 Mining's Share of Available Talent (number of workers) Total Available Talent, All Sectors (number of workers) Mining's Historic Share of Available Talent (per cent) Designated Trades 1,660 13,225 13% Production Occupations % Professional and Physical Science Occupations Human Resources and Financial Occupations 741 5,200 14% % Support workers ,125 3% Technical Occupations % Supervisors, Coordinators, and Foremen 680 2,338 29%

45 1. Hiring Requirements 2. Available Talent 3. Gap Analysis The difference between hiring requirements and available talent

46 Cumulative Gap by Broad occupational Categories-Baseline Scenario 2024 Cumulative Hiring Requirements Talent Availability Mining`s Share Gap Total Available Talent - All Sectors Mining's Share Mining's Required Share Designated Trades 1,440 1, ,225 13% 11% Production Occupations 2,950 2, ,670 15% 16% Professional and Physical Science Occupations Human Resources and Financial Occupations 1, ,200 14% 21% ,863 4% 5% Support Workers ,125 3% 5% Technical Occupations 1, ,417 7% 25% Supervisors, Coordinators, and Foreman ,338 29% 42%

47 Focus on Retention and Development Projected Gaps- to 2024

48 Focus on Competing for Talent Projected Gaps-to 2024

49 Grow the Talent Pool Projected Gaps-to 2024

50 Highlights Hiring Requirements have been adjusted downward to 13,000 workers Highest demand: Production occupations (2,900) Designated Trades (1,400) Technical occupations (1,300) Largest gaps: Technician/ Technologist occupations (950) Physical and Professional Sciences (370) Supervisors/Foreman (300)

51 Thank you. Questions?