ARKANSAS CD 2: DEMOCRAT SNYDER RETAINS SEAT, DEFEATS GOP PARKS

Transcription

1 ARKANSAS CD 2: DEMOCRAT SNYDER RETAINS SEAT, DEFEATS GOP PARKS SNYDER RE-ELECTED TO 5TH TERM IN CONGRESS, 60% TO 36% IN AN ELECTION TODAY FOR U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FROM AR 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, DEMOCRAT VIC SNYDER IS RE-ELECTED, DEFEATING GOP CHALLENGER MARVIN PARKS 60% TO 36%, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 583 LIKELY VOTERS CONDUCTED 10/25-10/27. IN IDENTICAL SURVEYUSA TRACKING POLL 1 MO AGO, SNYDER LED BY 17. TODAY HE LEADS BY 24, WITH 5 DAYS TO GO. SNYDER LEADS BY 17 PTS AMONG MALE VOTERS, BY 30 PTS AMONG FEMALES. SNYDER LEADS BY 13 PTS AMONG WHITE VOTERS. SNYDER LEADS BY 75 PTS AMONG BLACK VOTERS. SIZE OF BLACK TURNOUT WILL DETERMINE MARGIN OF SNYDER VICTORY ON ELECTION DAY. SNYDER HOLDS 91% OF DEMOCRAT BASE. PARKS HOLDS 76% OF GOP BASE. 21% OF GOP VOTERS CROSS-OVER & VOTE DEMOCRAT. INDEPENDENTS BREAK 55% TO 38% FOR SNYDER. RESEARCH CONDUCTED E.T :33-21: :32-21: :36-21:41 ET RESPONDENTS DRAWN FROM ARKANSAS S 2ND CONG. DIST. RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTED BY SURVEY SAMPLING INC. RESEARCH CONDUCTED FOR KTHV-TV LITTLE ROCK 2004 SURVEYUSA, PROUD TO BE AMERICA'S POLLSTER PAGE 1 OF 8

2 VOTE FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE / ALL LIKELY VOTERS ON TUESDAY, VOTERS IN ARKANSAS'S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT WILL ELECT A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE. IF THE ELECTION FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM ARKANSAS'S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT WERE TODAY, AND YOU WERE STANDING IN THE VOTING BOOTH RIGHT NOW, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? REPUBLICAN MARVIN PARKS? DEMOCRAT VIC SNYDER? OR SOME OTHER CANDIDATE? PARKS (R) 36% SNYDER (D) 60% OTHER 2% UNDECIDED 2% THIS IS A SURVEY OF 583 LIKELY VOTERS FROM ARKANSAS S 2ND CONG. DIST. RESULTS CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT ±4.1% A LARGER ± APPLIES TO SUBPOPULATIONS RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 2 OF 8

3 VOTE FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE / ALL LIKELY VOTERS 65% 60% 60% 57% 55% 54% 50% 45% 40% 35% 37% 35% 36% 30% 9/28 10/13 10/28 PARKS (R) SNYDER (D) PAGE 3 OF 8

4 VOTE FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY PARKS (R) 36% 38% 25% 40% 33% 36% 37% 35% 36% 42% 10% SNYDER (D) 60% 59% 67% 57% 63% 62% 57% 62% 59% 55% 85% OTHER 2% 1% 4% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% UNDECIDED 2% 2% 4% 2% 3% 1% 4% 2% 2% 2% 4% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES PARKS (R) SNYDER (D) OTHER UNDECIDED CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK PAGE 4 OF 8

5 VOTE FOR U.S. REPRESENTATIVE / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY PARKS (R) 36% 76% 7% 38% 34% 45% 34% 34% 59% 22% 7% 34% 40% 34% SNYDER (D) 60% 21% 91% 55% 63% 52% 60% 63% 38% 75% 87% 61% 58% 62% OTHER 2% 1% 0% 4% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% 2% 1% 2% UNDECIDED 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 4% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES PARKS (R) SNYDER (D) OTHER UNDECIDED REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL PAGE 5 OF 8

6 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY PARKS (R) SNYDER (D) OTHER UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 48% 52% 33% 30% 21% 16% 78% 17% 2% 2% 43% 36% 21% COMP. OF REG. VOTERS 100% 47% 53% 30% 31% 22% 17% 78% 18% 2% 2% 44% 36% 19% COMP. OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 48% 52% 29% 32% 23% 16% 80% 17% 2% 2% 44% 36% 20% 800 ADULTS FROM ARKANSAS'S 2ND CONG. DIST INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 10/25-10/27. OF THEM, 686 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 583 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' CONGRESSIONAL VOTERS. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 6 OF 8

7 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER NOT SURE GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL NOT SURE CERTAIN PROBABLE REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY PARKS (R) SNYDER (D) OTHER UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 23% 33% 19% 1% 14% 16% 28% 41% 41% 41% 12% 5% 63% 10% COMP. OF REG. VOTERS 100% 30% 44% 24% 2% 16% 18% 29% 36% 42% 41% 13% 4% 73% 12% COMP. OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 31% 43% 25% 2% 18% 19% 29% 33% 44% 41% 11% 3% 86% 14% 800 ADULTS FROM ARKANSAS'S 2ND CONG. DIST INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 10/25-10/27. OF THEM, 686 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 583 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' CONGRESSIONAL VOTERS. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 7 OF 8

8 The following is a material part of this report and should be included when data is referenced: How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Page 1 of this report contains: the geography that was surveyed; the dates interviews were conducted; the news organization that paid for the research; and the name of the random sample provider. The universe of respondents and the margin of error are stated on Page 2 of this report, and if restated on one or more subsequent pages, it is because the universe and margin of error changed for those subsequent questions. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. PAGE 8 OF 8