Top Five Trends of 2015 That Apartment Investors Must Track. January 7, 2015

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1 Top Five Trends of 2015 That Apartment Investors Must Track January 7, 2015

2 Millennials Drive Housing Demand

3 U.S. Population Year Olds 70 5-Year Growth: 1,400, Year Old Population (Mil.) Millennial Propensity to Rent** 68% * 2018* 2020* * Forecast ** 2013 American Community Survey Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, BLS

4 Growth in Rental Demand From Young Adults vs Year Old Population Growth Young Adult Rental Demand Growth (000s) Rental Demand Growth Population Growth * 2015** 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Year Old Population Growth * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau

5 Employment Gains Accelerating Likely to Lift Wage Growth in 2015 Quarterly Job Growth (Millions) Million +8.2 Million Million* 2015 Forecast: 3.1 Million * 2015** * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

6 Young Adults Finding Work as Unemployment Tightens 13% Unemployment Rate Millennial Unemployment Rate** 255 bps 11% Rate 8% 6% 3% 130 bps Unemployment Rate: 5.8% Millennial Unemployment Rate: 7.6% Long-Term Spread: 130 bps * Through November ** age cohort Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS Long-Term Average: 7.4% Long-Term Average: 6.1% * 180 bps

7 National Rank by Metro Five-Year Millennial Apartment Demand Growth* Top 10 Metros Propensity to Rent** Year Old Population Growth Potential Demand Growth Dallas-Ft. Worth 71.6% 122,200 87,500 Phoenix 67.2% 102,100 68,600 Atlanta 67.2% 100,400 67,400 Houston 68.6% 89,800 61,600 Los Angeles 82.9% 73,100 60,600 Washington, D.C. 68.6% 71,600 49,100 New York 85.3% 56,400 48,100 Las Vegas 72.1% 60,800 43,800 Orlando 70.1% 61,400 43,100 Charlotte 65.3% 62,300 40,700 U.S. Total 67.7% 1,432, ,400 * ** Based on 2012 American Community Survey; 2013 for U.S. total Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau

8 Millennials Drive Housing Demand

9 Housing Market May Begin Shift

10 Single-Family Home Completions (Mil.) and Household Growth (Mil.) Six-Year Plunge in Single-Family Construction Has Generated Strong Pent-Up Demand Single-Family Home Construction * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau Household Growth Oversupply: 2.0M * Undersupply: 3.9M * 2015*

11 Housing Market Flattening; Financing Availability May Boost Activity Median Home Prices Existing Home Sales $250 Single-Family Condo 650 Single-Family and Condo Median Price (000s) $225 $200 $175 Y-O-Y Change +6% +1% Home Sales (000s) Y-O-Y Change +2% $ * * * Through November Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, National Association of Realtors

12 Median Home Payment Driven by Interest Rates Gap With Apartment Rents Likely to Widen in 2015 $1,800 Home Payment Apartment Rent $1,500 Monthly Payment $1,200 $900 $600 $ * Estimate ** Forecast; assumes 0.5% rise in mortgage rates Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price for a 30-year fixed rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, and 1.5% taxes and insurance Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, Freddie Mac, National Association of Realtors -$ * 2015** $96

13 Lower Risk Markets Based on Home Mortgage Payment and Rent Gap Least Affordable Markets 3Q 2014 Monthly Home Payment 3Q 2014 Average Rent Affordability Gap Manhattan* $7,300 $3,261 $4,039 San Francisco $5,857 $2,690 $3,167 San Jose $4,919 $2,271 $2,648 Oakland $4,015 $1,787 $2,228 Orange County $3,877 $1,699 $2,178 San Diego $2,825 $1,532 $1,293 Los Angeles $2,484 $1,738 $746 Seattle $2,000 $1,263 $737 Washington, D.C. $2,173 $1,576 $597 Portland $1,624 $1,035 $589 U.S. Average $1,176 $1,166 $10 * Includes condominiums Mortgage payments based on 3Q 2014 median home price for a 30-year fixed rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, and 1.5% taxes and insurance Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, Freddie Mac, National Association of Realtors, Douglas Elliman Real Estate

14 Higher Risk Markets Based on Home Mortgage Payment and Rent Gap Most Affordable Markets 3Q 2014 Monthly Home Payment 3Q 2014 Average Rent Affordability Gap Detroit $482 $828 -$346 Cleveland $686 $807 -$121 Chicago $1,147 $1,258 -$111 Tampa $863 $931 -$68 Cincinnati $769 $812 -$43 Atlanta $887 $915 -$28 St. Louis $782 $801 -$19 Indianapolis $821 $752 $69 Columbus $866 $785 $81 Kansas City $887 $802 $85 U.S. Average $1,176 $1,166 $10 Mortgage payments based on 3Q 2014 median home price for a 30-year fixed rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, and 1.5% taxes and insurance Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, Freddie Mac, National Association of Realtors

15 Housing Market May Begin Shift

16 Interest Rates Could Emerge as Major Factor

17 Inflation Adjusted Crude Oil Prices In Alignment with Long-Term Average Price per Barrel (Nov Dollars) $160 $120 $80 $40 $0 Long-Term Average: $ * * Through December Oil prices for West Texas Intermediate crude Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Energy Information Administration, BLS

18 U.S. GDP Growth Accelerates Numerous Drivers in Unison Annualized Quarterly Percent Change Industrial Starts (in millions) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% * 2015** * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BEA

19 Core Inflation vs. 10-Year Treasury 4% Core Inflation 10-Year Avg. Core Inflation 10-Year Treasury 10-Year Avg. 10-Year Treasury 3.35% 3% Rate 2% 1.93% 1% 40-Year Average Core Inflation: 4.07% 10-Year Treasury: 6.78% 10-Year Average Core Inflation: 1.93% 0% 10-Year Treasury: 3.35% * * Through November Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve, BLS

20 Fed Holdings and 10-Year Treasury Rates $ % Fed Holdings (Trillions) $3.6 $2.4 $ % 3.0% 1.5% 10-Year Treasury $ % * * Through December 24 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve TIPS/TIPS Inflation Compensation/Agencies/Bills MBS Notes & Bonds 10-Year Treasury

21 Interest Rates Could Emerge as Major Factor

22 Significant Construction Remains a Risk Factor

23 Apartment Vacancy vs. Construction Completions Vacancy Rate % Completions (000s of Units) % 6% 4% 2% Average Vacancy Rate * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research * 15** 0%

24 Permit Issuance/Unit Completions (000s) Dallas-Ft. Worth Houston New York 2015 Multifamily Permit Issuance vs. Number of Completions Seattle Washington, D.C. Los Angeles Austin Phoenix Denver Unit Completions Boston Atlanta San Antonio Chicago Northern NJ Orlando Minneapolis Portland Miami Charlotte San Francisco Ft. Lauderdale Orange County Multifamily Permit Issuance Philadelphia San Jose Indianapolis Kansas City San Diego Salt Lake City West Palm Beach Columbus Jacksonville Baltimore Milwaukee Pittsburgh Cincinnati Louisville Las Vegas St. Louis Oakland Detroit Cleveland New Haven Inland Empire Sacramento * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research, U.S. Census Bureau

25 Apartment Construction Modest Risk Ranking 2014/2015 Completions and Job Growth Per Unit Top 10 Metros 2014* & 2015** Completions 2014* & 2015** Job Growth Jobs Per Unit 2015 Vacancy Rate** Inland Empire 2,600 64, % Las Vegas 2,400 52, % Sacramento 1,400 30, % Oakland 2,600 53, % St. Louis 2,600 50, % Detroit 1,500 25, % Cleveland 2,000 28, % Milwaukee 3,300 38, % Salt Lake City 5,200 58, % Los Angeles 18, , % U.S. Total 448,000 6,000, % * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research

26 Apartment Construction Elevated Risk Ranking 2014/2015 Completions and Job Growth Per Unit Bottom 10 Metros 2014* & 2015** Completions 2014* & 2015** Job Growth Jobs Per Unit 2015 Vacancy Rate** Northern NJ 12,300 28, % Washington, D.C. 29,900 80, % Charlotte 12,400 37, % Austin 23,000 69, % San Antonio 13,300 44, % Kansas City 5,200 17, % Columbus 6,200 24, % Seattle 22, , % Denver 16,800 83, % Boston 15,000 83, % U.S. Total 448,000 6,000, % * Estimate ** Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MPF Research

27 Significant Construction Remains a Risk Factor

28 Cap Rates Compress at Macro Level Flat Trends for Some Markets

29 U.S. Apartment Price and Cap Rate Trends $125 Average Price Cap Rate 8% Average Price per Unit (000s) $100 $75 $50 7% 6% 5% Average Cap Rate $25 4% * * Trailing 12-months through 3Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc.

30 Primary Markets Share of Apartment Dollar Volume $15M+ Trending Downward $20 Primary Market Dollar Volume Percent in Primary Markets** 70% Dollar Volume (Billions) $15 $10 $5 60% 50% 40% Percent of Dollar Volume $0 30% * Through 2Q ** Trailing 12-month average Includes sales $15 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc *

31 9% Repricing of Risk by Quality Reflected in Apartment Cap Rate Trends by Market Preferred Primary Secondary Tertiary Average Cap Rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% * * Through 3Q Includes sales $1 million and greater Preferred Markets Include: NY, DC, BOS, SD, LA, OC, SJ, SF, SEA Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc.

32 U.S. Apartment Cap Rate Trends Average Cap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Apartment Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Rate 10% Cap Rate Long- Term Avg. Average Cap Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 380 bps 390 bps 10-Yr Treasury Long-Term Avg bps 390 bps 100 bps * Through December 31 Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics, Federal Reserve 450 bps * 350 bps

33 National Apartment Rank by Metro Average Cap Rate Change Since 2010 Top 10 Metros 2010 Cap Rate 3Q 2014* Cap Rate Basis Point Change Detroit 10.9% 8.4% -250 Orlando 8.8% 6.4% -240 Salt Lake City 7.6% 5.4% -220 Minneapolis 8.5% 6.5% -200 Miami 8.4% 6.5% -190 Milwaukee 9.5% 7.6% -190 New York 6.6% 4.8% -180 Atlanta 8.3% 6.6% -170 Austin 7.7% 6.1% -160 Cincinnati 9.4% 7.8% -160 U.S. Average 7.2% 5.7% -150 * Trailing 12-months through 3Q 2014 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics

34 2015 National Apartment Report Now Available

35 Top Five Trends of 2015 That Apartment Investors Must Track January 7, 2015

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