Plug-In Electric Vehicle Policy Models and Benefits for Ohio. Ohio Green Energy Policy Conference April 7, 2016

Transcription

1 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Policy Models and Benefits for Ohio Ohio Green Energy Policy Conference April 7, 2016 Sam Spofforth, Executive Director (614)

2 About Clean Fuels Ohio Fleet Analysis & Consulting Ohio Green Fleets Legislative Outreach & Policy Events & Networking

3 Plug-In Electric Vehicles (PEVs) are Part of Solution to Many Problems Climate Change Smog Grid Capacity (Especially Renewables) Underutilization Excessive Peak Demand Energy (Petroleum) Insecurity Export of Dollars for Oil and More. Regulatory policy is needed in order for PEVs to be a solution.

4 PEVs Round 1: Early 20 th Century PEVs Held Their Own Easy to Operate, Quiet, Clean But Limited Range Gasoline ICE Cars Dominated Market by Late 1910 s

5 PEVs Round s, 2000s GM s EV1, Ford Ranger EV, Chrysler TEVan, Toyota RAV4 EV, Honda EV Plus, Nissan Altra GM Impact PEV Concept Car: 1990 ZEV Mandate in California (1990, 1998) Popular with Owners, but Low Sales (Lease) Volumes GM Recalled & Crushed All EV1 Cars in 2003 Meanwhile Toyota, Honda Brought HEVs to Market in 2000s.

6 PEV Round 3: 2010 to 2016 Nissan Leaf Chevy Volt 2011 First Model Year: Pure Battery EV 1 st Gen: Miles Range 2 nd Gen (2016): 107 Miles Range Sales Down Compared with Volt in First Model Year: Extended Range EV 1 st Gen: Miles All-Electric Range 2 nd Gen (2016): 53 Miles All Electric Sales Up, Down, Up Again in ,987 Through March Tesla, Ford, BMW, Cadillac, Mitsubishi, Porshe, Volvo Sell PEVs Nationally.

7 PEVs Round 4: 2017 to? Chevy Bolt Tesla Model 3 Introduction Dec 2016 Pure Battery EV 200 Mile Range Cost $37,500 Before Fed Tax Credit* Introduction Dec 2017 Pure Battery EV 215+ Mile Range Cost $35,000 Before Fed Tax Credit* Nearly every OEM plans to sell (multiple) PEV models nationally. Ranges Up. Prices Down.

8 The Future Looks Bright for PEVs!

9 #1: Battery Costs Going Down Fast

10 #2: To Own a PEV is to Love It Top 3 Cars in 2015 Consumer Satisfaction Ratings are PEVs: 1. Tesla 2. Chevy Volt 3. Nissan Leaf Volt: Highest Satisfaction Rating of Any GM in History The Tesla Effect

11 Economic Benefits of PEVs PEV Owners Utilities/Rate-Payers Ohio s Macro Economy

12 PEVs are Great Deal for Owners and Can Be Even Better

13 Energy Cost Comparison: PEV vs. ICE ICE Energy Costs Assume 25 mpg Assume $2/gal Energy Cost = $.0.08/mile PEV* Energy Costs Assume 3.3 mpk (miles/kwh) Assume $0.12/kWh Energy Cost = $0.04/mile PEV energy cost is roughly half of ICE vehicle. Not bad. *2016 Nissan Leaf

14 Looking Behind the Numbers One gallon of gas = 33.7 kwh (energy equivalency) $0.12/kWh = $4.04/GGE However PEVs are about 4X more energy efficient Example PEV (2016 Nissan Leaf) EPA fuel economy rating of 114 MPGe Estimates Don t Include Lower Maintenance Costs for PEVs

15 What If We Paid True Cost of Energy with TOU/TOC Rates? ICE Energy Costs Assume 25 mpg Assume $2/gal Energy Cost = $.0.08/mile PEV Energy Costs (Off Peak Rate) Assume 3.3 mpk (miles/kwh) Assume $0.04/kWh* Energy Cost = $0.015/mile That s less than 20% of the energy cost of ICE vehicle at $2/gal. *Actual Off-Peak Rate From ConEd today is only 1.34 cents/kwh

16 Future (Med. Term) Value: Connected PEVs as Part of Grid Modernization Vehicle to Grid (V2G) or Grid Integrated Vehicles (GIVs)

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18 V2G/GIV Value and What is Needed Value is estimated at around $4,000 per year per car.* Needs: Depends on energy market, hardware, software, battery Connections for Stationary EVs (Batteries) Vehicle Hardware/Software OEM Warranty Issues Aggregators Also Market for Batteries Out of Useful Vehicle Life PJM Gets It! Reduced Minimum to 100kW (~20 PEVs) Estimates vary, but $4,000 comes out of University of Delaware, which has led R&D efforts.

19 PEVs Benefit Utilities and ALL Rate-Payers Even Those Without a PEV PEVs are an Important Part of Overall Efficiency and Grid Modernization Effort

20 Capacity Utilization of the Grid

21 Net Revenue for Utils from PEVs Overnight Charging Adds Revenue with No Appreciable Cost to Grid; Net Revenue is Produced

22 Macro-Economic Benefits Gasoline: Ohioans Weekly Gasoline Spend: $228 million* Most of that wealth was exported from state. Electricity: Consumers would spend less than half on electricity PEVs, perhaps 20% or less off-peak. Most dollars spent on electricity stay within Ohio. PEVs are potential $100 Billion national market for utilities.** *Derived from EIA figure for total U.S. figure based on Ohio s percentage of U.S. total population. **Based on EIA data; assumes $0.10/kWh ave. rate

23 Climate Impacts of PEVs vs. Others: Today, where you plug in matters.

24 Three Market Barriers to Plug-In Electric Vehicles? Initial Purchase Price Lack of Charging Infrastructure Lack of Consumer Awareness

25 Barrier: PEVs Still Cost More to Purchase Initially. Solutions: Utilities: Use portion of PEV net revenue to provide PEV purchase rebates. State Government: Offer modest tax credit. Federal Government: Extend fed tax credit.

26 PEV Incentives Examples $750/vehicle incentive for consumers (capped at 250) $750/vehicle incentive for dealers Florida: $500 - $1,000/vehicle depending on battery capacity Loans for 60 months at 0.5% Interest on PEV

27 Problem: Consumers Not Paying Market Rates Based on Time of day Problem: Undifferentiated Electricity Rates Based on Time of Day Consumers Pay More Than They Should Charging Not Optimized to Utilize System Capacity Solution: Utilities Offer Time or Use (TOU) or Time of Charge (TOC) Rates

28 TOU/TOC Examples Offers 3 Rates Including Super Off-Peak Whole-House Rates No Special Meter Needed Indianapolis Offers 3 Rates Including Peak, Off-Peak, Mid- Peak; Fleets and Residential Eligible Michigan Offers 2 Rates: Peak, Off-Peak Separate Meter Required

29 Barrier: Inadequate Infrastructure for Charging and PEV Connectivity Solutions: Utilities: Leverage PEV Net Revenue to Incent Charging Installations Local/State Gov t: Provide Matching Funding (e.g. CMAQ)

30 Where is Connectivity Needed? Certain Types of Residences Workplaces Corridors (Fast Charging) Destinations (Retail, Medical, Recreational, Other)

31 Infrastructure Incentives and Installation Examples California: $45 Million to Increase EVSE by 3,500 and fund education Northern Indiana: EVSE Credit up to $1,650; free off-peak charging (separate meter also free) Michigan 16 Public Fast Charging Stations Texas: 50% rebate up to $1,500 for EVSE

32 ? Barrier: Consumers Poorly- Informed About PEVs Solutions: Incentivize Dealers Grassroots Education Driving Experiences and Interactions Marketing Campaigns Funded by Utilities Based on PEV Net Revenue, and Gov t

33 Consumer Education Examples

34 Education Campaign Examples Illinois (Dept of Pub Utilities): $22M (fed/local) for infra upgrades to allow Smart Charging Northern Indiana: Partner w/ local Clean Cities for funding and info for home charging Florida: Funding and participating in educational info and outreach

35 Next Steps Partner with Utilities (IOUs, Munis) Work with PUCO on Policies to Allow Investments: Vehicle Up-Front Cost Infrastructure Consumer Education Leverage Funding from Additional Sources

36 Sam Spofforth Clean Fuels Ohio