FDI and Export-oriented Growth in Myanmar
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1 FDI and Export-oriented Growth in Myanmar Ni Lar, Chiang Mai University H. Taguchi, Saitama University At the ESRI International Conference On September 26, 2014 I. Economic Profile of Myanmar II. Conventional Scenario for Export-oriented Growth III. Observations on Myanmar Economy IV. Strategic Issues for Myanmar Economy V. Long-term Prospects on Myanmar Economy
2 I. Economic Profile of Myanmar Population (million, 2013) GDP ($bil., 2013) GDP per capita ($, 2013) HDI Index (Ranking/187, 2012) Myanmar Cambodia , Lao P.D.R , Thailand , Vietnam , Note: Population, GDP and GDP per capita are from World Economic Outlook Database April 2014 (Estimates in 2013). HDI (Human Development Index) is from UNDP website.
3 A Brief History of Myanmar Socialism period ( ): Controlled, centralized and selfsufficiency economy SLORC/SPDC ( ): Transition towards market-oriented economy and open-door policies Economic & Social Reforms (March 2011 ) Four Reform Strategies - Development of agriculture and all round development - Balanced and proportionate growth among regions and states - Inclusive growth for entire population - Emergence of reliable statistics and improvement of statistical system. Reformation in Economic Policies - Ten areas for reformations: 1) fiscal & tax reform, 2) monetary & financial sector reform, 3) trade & investment liberalization, 4) private sector development, 5) improvements in health & education, 6) food security & agricultural growth 7) governance & transparency, 8) mobile telephony & internet, 9) infrastructure investment, 10) efficient & effective government - Ease of international sanctions such as GSP adaptation by EU since Currency regime reformation since April 2012
4 II. Conventional Scenario for Export-oriented Growth Intensive Investment Inward FDI in Manufacturing Capital Stock Expansion, Job Creation TFP Improvements by Technology Transfer Export-Oriented Growth 4
5 III. Observation: FDI and Investment Inward FDI Share to GDP (%) Investment Share to GDP (%) 12.0 Myanmar Thailand Vietnam 60.0 Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Source: Inward FDI: International Financial Statistics, IMF GDP: World Economic Outlook, IMF Source: ADB Key Indicators 5
6 III. Observation: Export and Growth Export Share to GDP (%) Growth Rate (%) 90.0 Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Source: ADB Key Indicators and author's estimate for Myanmar's Export Source: ADB Key Indicators and UNDP and IMF estimate for Myanmar's Growth Rate 6
7 III. Observation: Industrial Structure "Industry" Share to GDP (%) "Agriculture" Share to GDP (%) 45.0 Myanmar Thailand Vietnam 70.0 Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Source: ADB Key Indicators Source: ADB Key Indicators Note: "Industry" is composed of Mining, Manufacturing, Construction and Electricity-Gas-Water.
8 III. Observation: FDI Structure Source: DICA, MNPED
9 III. Observation: Trade Structure Type of Commodities of Trade in Myanmar 2013/14 Source:
10 III. Granger Causality Tests on FDI, Export, and GDP FDI Export FDI GDP Brunei Cambodia *** Indonesia Lao PDR ** Malaysia Myanmar Philippines *** Singapore ** *** Thailand *** *** Vietnam Panel *** *** Note: *, **, *** denote the significant level at 90, 95 and 99 percent respectively. Panel in 8 means the economies excluding Brunei and Vietnam. Source: Taguchi & Ni Lar & estimation
11 IV. Strategic Issues for Myanmar Economy Urgent Issues FDI acceptance in manufacturing Participation in production networks Spot-area development (SEZ, borders, etc.) Long-term Issues Industrial upgrading = technological sophistication, localization, Geographical linkage = Corridor Approach Prerequisites Infrastructure development Institutional arrangement Human resource development
12 Business Environment for FDI Acceptance Top 10 Business Constraints in Myanmar: The survey results by International Finance Corporation (Feb.- Apr. 2014) Source:
13 Infrastructure & Logistics for Production Networks Global Ranking in Logistics Performance Index 2014 by the World Bank Overall LPI Customs Infrastructure International shipments Logistics competence Tracking & tracing Timeliness Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Myanmar Sources: Logistics Performance Index 2014: The World Bank, ( (Total: 160 countries) 13
14 How to Implement & Adapt SEZ & FDI Law Myanmar Special Economic Zone Law Myanmar Foreign Investment Law (FIL) Management Committee Management, administration and supervision in Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Developer Constructing infrastructure in SEZ Investor Founds joint venture business making investment in SEZ Tax Corporate income tax: Developer Tax holiday 8 years Tax reduction 50% (next 5 years) Tax reduction 50% (following 5 years) (for reinvestment) Investor Tax holidays for Free Zone industries 7 year Tax holidays for Promotion Zone industries 5 year Tax reduction for 50% (for next 5 years Tax reduction for 50% (for the following 5 years) (for reinvestment) Custom duty: Exemption of custom duty on construction materials and machineries Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC) Considering proposal from promoters Corporate Wholly foreign businesses are allowed Foreign Capital No minimum limit for foreign capital Tax Corporate income tax: 5-year tax holiday Right to Use Land Investor can lease land up to 70 years Remittance of Profit Foreign investor will be able to remit profit or capital Employee Skilled citizen workers shall have been appointed at least 25 percent within first 2 years; 50 percent within second 2 years; 75 percent within third 2 years; Can appoint only citizen for works that do not require skills Right to Use Land Developer and investor can lease land up to 75 years
15 Source: UNCTAD WIR 2013 Industrial Upgrading
16 Industrial Upgrading: Localization Food Products Electrical Equipment Domestic Value added / Gross Exports (%) Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Domestic Value added / Gross Exports (%) Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam , ,000 10,000 Per Capita GDP (US dollar) , ,000 10,000 Per Capita GDP (US dollar) Source: OECD-WTO TiVA Database and IMF WEO Data for per capita GDP
17 Geographical Linkage = Corridor Approach Big 3 projects SEZ prepared India China Border area projects in MM-TH Corridors Bangladesh Kayukphyu linked with China, etc. Thailand Laos Hpa-an & Myawaddy along with EWEC Thilawa linked with Japan, etc. Southern Corridor (SEC) Dawei along with SEC Hit KheeAlong with along with SEC
18 Urgent Needs for Human Resource Development FDI & Production networks require skill labors [Example] JICA Research Project: Job Creation by Border Area Development between Thailand & Myanmar in Thai-Myanmar TVET Collaboration Exchange trainers and trainees, and common curriculum among Thai and Myanmar institutes Targeting Myanmar workers including migrants and refugees Training basic & technical-skills (garment, food-processing) Extension of Dual System Expanding companies partners for training institutes to ask onthe-job-trainings to meet need from supply-chain manufacturing Community Development Sharing Thai OTOP experiences by exhibition, road-show, etc.
19 V. Long-term Prospects on Myanmar Economy Assumption Baseline in 2035 (Business as usual) Investment Ratio Constant at 25% ( ) 40% in 2020 at its peak Labor Annual Growth: 2.3% ( ); 1.3% ( ) TFP Growth Estimation Results Projection in 2035 GDP per capita (real $, 2035) 1,533 3,037 Annual Growth (%, ) Capital Contribution Labor Contribution TFP ICOR Source: The estimation outcome was submitted in Myanmar Comprehensive Development Vision (MCDV) Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in collaboration with Respective Ministries of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar on August 22, 2013.
20 Assumption for Intensive Investment Assumption of Investment (exogenous as a policy target) = follow Thai investment path in the s Investment Ratio to GDP for Projection 60.0 Myanmar Thailand
21 Scenario for TFP Improvement TFP Improvement is linked with any development strategies to enhance the efficiency of the economy: Innovation of technologies Infrastructure development Human resource development Industrial restructuring Institutional reformation, etc. Assumption of TFP improvement =
22 TFP Growth in Asia China India Vietnam Korea ROC -0.1 Singapore Thailand Hong Kong Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Source: APO Productivity Database
23 Export- & Import Ratio to GDP in Projection Exports Imports
24 Projection Industrial structure Assumption: Myanmar in2020 = Thailand in 1990 Industrial Share of GDP (%) 50.0 Myanmar Thailand Note: "Industry" is composed of Mining, Manufacturing, Construction and Electricity-Gas-Water. Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
25 GDP Projection by Industrial Origin in 2020 in Myanmar % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining Manufacturing Food Textile Paper Chemical, Petroleum and Rubber Non Metallic Products Metal Products Machinery Other Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Construction Services Total Source: Taguchi & Ni Lar & estimation consistent with the ERIA report above 25
26 Employment Projection by Industrial Origin in 2020 in Myanmar million persons Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining Manufacturing Food Textile Paper Chemical, Petroleum and Rubber Non Metallic Products Metal Products Machinery Other Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Construction Services Total Source: Taguchi & Ni Lar & estimation consistent with the ERIA report above 26
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