For Tuesday Read: Lina Mubarak Al-abdulsalaam. Leaders Are Made, not Born. Times of Oman, Oct. 22.

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1 For Tuesday Read: Lina Mubarak Al-abdulsalaam. Leaders Are Made, not Born. Times of Oman, Oct opic_nd=99

2 Democracies are about as conflict prone as nondemocracies, but Democracies do not fight each other, and yet As the proportion of democracies in the system increases, the number and severity of conflicts in the system does not necessarily decline

3 States, to the extent possible, externalize the norms of behavior that characterize their domestic political processes and institutions The anarchic nature of international politics implies that a clash between democratic norms and nondemocratic norms is dominated by the latter, rather than by the former (Maoz and Russett, 1993: 625). Implication for democratic peace: It matters not only who you are (what are your own norms) but also who are those with whom you are likely to interact on a regular basis

4 Network I States = 6 Dyads = 15 Dem-Dem = 0 Dem-Nodem=6 Nodem-Nodem=9 Figure 1: Interaction Networks of States Network III States = 6 Dyads = 15 Dem-Dem = 6 Dem-Nodem=8 Nodem-Nodem=1 Network II States = 6 Dyads = 15 Dem-Dem = 1 Dem-Nodem=8 Nodem-Nodem=6 Total System Total States = 18 Total Dyads = 153 Total Dem -Dem = 21 (13.7%) Dem-Nodem=77 (50.3%) Nodem-Nodem=55 (36.0%) Politically-Relevant Dyads Total Dyads =45 (29.4% of system ) Dem-Dem=7 (15.6%) Dem-Nodem=22 (48.9%) Nodem-Nodem=11 (24.5%) Democracy Anocracy Autocracy

5 Turkey Lebanon Israel Syria Iran Morocco Jordan Algeria Libya Egypt Egypt Saudi Arabia Gulf States Mauritania Sudan Yemen

6 The liberal peace is a broader conception of the conditions that tend to be associated with the relative absence of conflict between states. It includes several factors: Joint Democracy Trade-related interdependence Joint IGO-Membership Joint Democracy Peace? No: Too few joint democratic dyads Trade Actually the probability of conflict increases with the level of trade (mostly due to inter-arab conflicts) No Relationship. States that share high IGO memberships are no more likely to fight than states that share few memberships

7 Internationalized civil wars are civil wars that expand such that at least one outside power becomes involved in it. In some cases, civil wars may convert into real interstate wars due to intervention of outside states on the side of each of the groups involved in the civil war.

8 Ethnic-Religious Breakdown: : 50% Christians 30% Sunni Muslims 15% Shi ite Muslims 5% Druze 1974-: 30% Christians 40% Sunni Muslims 25% Shi ite Muslims 5% Druze

9 Up to 1974, a consociational democracy in Lebanon: split ethnic control of politics in the country: President Christian; Prime Minister Moslem; Chief of Staff of Lebanese army Christian; Deputy Chief of Staff Moslem, and so forth. Changing demographic balance, Moslem population on the rise, Christian population on the decline September 1970 and June Thousands of Palestinian guerrillas expelled from Jordan, find haven in Lebanon. Establish base of operations in Lebanon, from which launch attacks on Israel, but also get involved in Lebanese politics

10 1974 Muslims feel increasingly disadvantaged by the political arrangements, growing discontent. Christians feel increasingly threatened by Muslim population growth as well as by Palestinian activity which draws Israeli military reprisals. Christians and Muslims organize into opposing militias. Government ineffective Random fighting erupts between Christian militias and Muslim/Palestinian militias. Government incapable of curbing violence. Lebanese army begins to break up into opposing militias

11 Throughout 1975 and 1976, total chaos. Random killing, street fighting, mass exodus of refugees from major cities. Spring and summer Syria, concerned by the events in Lebanon offers to intervene. Secret agreement with Israel and a decision by the Arab League allows Syrian military intervention in the war on the side of the Christian Phalanges. Initial Syrian-Palestinian and Syrian-Muslim clashes. Syrian intervention quells violence quite a bit, although sporadic violence continued. Estimated death toll up to October 1976, 44,000 dead, and 180,000 wounded

12 Israel establishes military ties with Christians in Lebanon. In Southern Lebanon, a Christian Militia is formed supported by Israel. Frequent clashes break out between different factions in Lebanon, and civil war resumes in 1977 and continues in various places, including northern and southern Lebanon. In 1981, big clash between the Christian militias and the Syrian forces, Israelis shoot down two Syrian helicopters, and a crisis erupts between the PLO and Israel. June 1982, Israel decides to change the political order in Lebanon by direct intervention. Its aims are:

13 Drive the Palestinian guerrillas out of Lebanon Drive the Syrian forces out of Lebanon Restore the Lebanese government under Christian domination (in collaboration with the Christian Phalanges Bashir Jumayel) Have the newly restored government sign a peace treaty with Israel Israel invasion brings about a major confrontation between Israeli and Syrian forces Israel puts Beirut under siege. Threatens to invade Beirut if the PLO forces there are not evacuated. International agreement leads to evacuation of the PLO from West Beirut and its relocation in Tunis

14 Bashir Jumayel is elected president but assassinated immediately thereafter. Christian militias, in coordination with Israelis enter Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatilla and commit mass murder of Palestinians Israel continues occupation of Lebanon and confronts a coalition of opponents, including all Muslim factions as well as Druze. A new Shi ite guerrilla movement, the Hezbollah, is formed in Southern Lebanon in opposition to Israel. Starts launching raids against Israelis and American and French intervention forces. American and French troops withdrawn in Israel withdraws its forces in 1985 but continues to maintain a small force in Southern Lebanon through May 2000

15 Overall death toll in war: 100,000 Lebanese killed out of a population of 3.7 million (about 2.7% of the population). Another 100,000 handicapped by injury. Syrians killed: About 2,000 (over the period) Israelis killed: About 1,000 (over the period).

16 International systems theorists maintain that the key to understanding the magnitude and severity of war in a system is the structure of the international system itself. An international system is defined as a set of states that interact with each other on a regular basis and according to a fixed set of rules The Structure of the system is defined by two key variables: The number of major powers, and the distribution of capabilities among them

17 Hierarchical Tight Bipolar Loose Bipolar Multipolar Classical Balance of Power

18 Soviet Union United States Iran Israel Morocco Libya Gulf States Egypt Syria Iraq Jordan Saudi Arabia Turkey

19 Iran Iraq United States Syria Israel Morocco Libya Egypt Gulf States Jordan Saudi Arabia Turkey

20 Samuel Huntington (1996) argues that the future of conflict is inherent in civilizational faultlines. Conflicts are likely to emerge between different civilizations In particular: the Christo-Judaeic civilization is likely to confront the Oriental and Islamic civilizations What is a civilization? Religious characteristics? Linguistic characteristics? Identity? Clash of Identities? Why would civilizations clash? Intra and inter-civilizational conflicts

21 Duration (Days) Battle Deaths Intra/Intercivilization? War # War Name War Start 1 War End Palestine 5/15/1948 7/18/ ,000 Inter 157 Sinai 10/29/ /6/ ,221 Inter 169 Six Day 6/5/1967 6/10/ ,600 Inter 172 Israeli-Egyptian 3/6/1969 8/7/ ,368 Inter 181 Yom Kippur 10/6/ /24/ ,401 Inter 199 Iran-Iraq 9/22/1980 8/20/1988 2, ,000 Intra 205 Israel-Syria (Lebanon) 4/21/1982 9/5/ ,235 Inter 211 Gulf War 8/2/1990 4/11/ ,343 Inter/Intra 235 U.S.-Iraq War 3/18/2003 4/13/ ,000 Inter Total 4, , ,168 Fatalities in Inter-civilizational wars: 160,168 Fatalities in Intra-civlizational wars: 805,000

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