The IEA Technology Roadmap: Concentrating Solar Power

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1 The IEA Technology Roadmap: Concentrating Solar Power 4 th CSP Summit USA, San Francisco, 24 June 2010 Cédric PHILIBERT Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency

2 Outline The need for an energy revolution The IEA Technology Roadmaps The PV and CSP Roadmaps The dynamics of PV Insights on the CSP roadmap Technologies Cost evolution and market growth Importance of DNI Global Map 2050 The role of storage Selected policy recommendations

3 World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario Mtoe Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal WEO-2008 total Source: World Energy Outlook 2009 Global energy demand grows by average 1.5% p.a. to 2030; 22% more oil, 42% more gas, 53% more coal than today 3

4 Coal fired power generation capacity under construction by country China Non-OECD India United States Europe Other OECD GW The bulk of coal fired capacity currently being built is in non OECD countries more than half of the world total in China alone

5 Energy related related CO 2 emissions by fuel and region in the Reference Scenario Gt International marine & aviation bunkers Non-OECD gas Non-OECD oil Non-OECD coal OECD gas OECD oil OECD coal Close to 60% of the projected increase in emissions between 2007 & 2030 comes from coal burning in non OECD countries

6 A sustainable energy future: the 450 Scenario Abatement by technology, 2030 By region World Reference Scenario OECD+ Efficiency 45% Renewables & biofuels 21% Nuclear 13% CCS 20% Efficiency 57% Gt 450 Scenario 13.8 Gt Other Major Economies Other Countries Efficiency 67% Renewables & biofuels 19% Nuclear 8% CCS 6% Efficiency 55% Renewables & biofuels 34% Nuclear 9% Renewables & biofuels 23% Nuclear 10% CCS 10% Source: Early excerpt of WEO 2009 for Bangkok UNFCCC meeting Efficiency measures account for 2/3 of the 3.8Gt abatement in Renewables contribute 20%. Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009

7 By 2050, an energy revolution PWh Other Solar Wind Biomass and waste + CCS Biomass and waste Hydro Nuclear Natural gas + CCS Natural gas Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 BLUE High Ren 2050 Oil Coal + CCS Coal In the BLUE Map scenario, renewables represents 50% of global electricity production by 2050, 75% in the High Renewables case

8 OECD/IEA 2009 How do we get there from here? The role of energy technology roadmaps Based on scenario to halve CO2 emissions by 2050 Identify technical, policy, legal, financial, and public acceptance milestones and priority nearterm actions Create a process for stakeholder collaboration Identify partners for implementation Roadmaps developed: CCS, electric vehicles, wind, cement sector, solar PV and solar CSP, nuclear power Roadmaps for 2010: smart grids, biofuels, EE buildings, others to follow

9 PV & CSP technology roadmaps Launched by IEA s Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka in Valencia, 11 May 2010 (MSP Conf.) PV and CSP complementary to each other Solar electricity could represent up to 20% to 25% of global electricity production by 2050 Roughly half CSP, half PV Producing up to 9000 TWh per year Saving almost 6 billion tonnes CO 2 per year This decade crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity Need to plan and invest in grid infrastructure Smart grids for PV, HVDC transmission lines for CSP

10 PV & CSP rodmaps (11 May 2010) PV takes all light PV almost everywhere Mostly at end-users Variable Peak & mid-peak Grid parity (retail prices) by 2020 Smart grids for integration CSP takes direct light CSP semi-arid countries Mostly for utilities Firm, dispatchable backup }{ Peak to base-load storage Competitive peak power by 2020 HVDC lines for transport Firm & flexible CSP capacities can help integrate more PV

11 PV Deployment Trends New additions 2009 (prelim data EPIA) Country MW Germany 3800 Italy 730 Japan 484 US 475 Czech Rep 411

12 Solar PV Vision PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050

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15 Strengths and weaknesses Strengths and weaknesses

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17 CSP costs and global output Competition for peak and mid peak loads Competition for base load

18 Daily direct normal irradiance is key

19 How accurate are our DNI Data? SWERA: NASA NREL The case of Morocco Ain Béni Mathar Ouarzazate Boujdour Foum Al Oued Sabkhat Tah

20 How accurate (2) Source: Solar Paces

21 The best regions for CSP Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Worth considering for CSP Source: Pharabod & Philibert, 1991

22 The CSP Roadmap: : A detailed regional assessment with some HVDC lines Consumption Production

23 Advantages of North African exports to EU For the EU: Firm, dispatchable solar electricity Facilitates integrating more wind and PV Cost competitive Helps achieve RE targets by 2020 For North Africa: Abundant resources for local needs and exports Stable revenues through exports of RE power Revenues to finance domestic power investments Advantages of Mexican exports to the USA Ensuring stability and security of supply for both sides

24 Uses of storage Intermediate load Delayed intermediate load

25 Uses of storage Base load Extreme peak load

26 Concentrating solar fuels

27 Selected Policy Recommendations 1. Implement solar specific incentives 2. Markets to reward firm capacities by CSP plants 3. Avoid arbitrary limits on plant size and hybridisation But reward only solar electricity share from hybrid plants 4. Ensure funding with long term certainty for public and private RD&D of CSP (up to 5 times current level) 5. Streamline permitting procedures for CSP plants and access lines 6. Consider offering suitable land areas, access to grid or water resources 7. Negotiate power purchase agreements between exporting and importing countries

28 Forthcoming IEA publications Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 With a high Renewables scenario equal to 75% final energy mix by July World Energy Outlook 2010 Full analytical section on renewable energy Deepen analysis on solar potential and transmission needs for North Africa 9 November Additional roadmaps on renewables Grid integration of variable renewable electricity

29 Thank you! OECD/IEA 2009 Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps OECD/IEA 2010

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