MARKETWATCH MARKET INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS THOUGHT LEADERSHIP WEEK ENDING

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1 ENERGY MARKET UPDATE Pg 2. BENCHMARKS Pg 3. MARKET DRIVERS Pg 4. STATE PROFILE The Energy Research Council national average benchmark price for retail electricity rose 1.34% last week to $ per kilowatt hour (kwh). With last week s increase, electricity prices are only 0.74% higher than this time one month ago. Prices increased most notably last week in Maryland (2.92%), Massachusetts (2.92%), and New Jersey (2.16%). By contrast, electricity prices declined slightly last week in Illinois (-1.07%) and Ohio (-0.09%). Electricity prices are still higher than one month ago in Maine (2.54%), the District of Columbia (2.59%), and Massachusetts (2.25%). In contrast, Texas and Ohio have experienced a month-over-month decline in retail electricity prices of -2.03% and -2.44%, respectively. Average Benchmark Price (kwh) AVERAGE WEEKLY BENCHMARK PRICE FOR RETAIL ELECTRICITY Average Weekly Benchmark Price for Retail Electricity /19/2016 8/26/2016 9/2/2016 9/9/2016 9/16/2016 Source: Energy Research Council 2016 SHORT-TERM PRICE TRENDS & AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICE BENCHMARKS Contract Start Wk/Wk Mo/Mo Oct /19/16 9/9/16 9/16/16 % Chg. % Chg. Connecticut % 0.01% Delaware % 1.19% District of Columbia % 2.59% Illinois % -1.23% Maine % 2.54% Maryland % 1.42% Massachusetts % 2.25% New Jersey % -0.33% New York % 0.45% Ohio % -2.44% Pennsylvania % 0.59% Rhode Island % 1.65% Texas % -2.03% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% PERCENT CHANGE IN AVERAGE PRICE BENCHMARKS Percent Change In Average Price Benchmarks: CT DC DE IL MA MD ME NJ NY OH PA RI TX Wk/Wk % Chg Mo/Mo % Chg Source: Energy Research Council 2016 about erc The ERC mission is to provide facts-based thought leadership concerning energy procurement and management in deregulated markets, through primary research and analysis. Contact us at (410) or com ENERGY RESEARCH COUNCIL 2016 MARKETWATCH SPONSORS ENERGY PROFESSIONALS OF OHIO

2 ELECTRICITY PRICE BENCHMARKS $ / kwh NATIONAL AVERAGE PRICE BENCHMARKS Contract Start Oct 2016 National National % 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% % AVERAGE WEEKLY PRICE BENCHMARKS BY CONTRACT TERM Contract Terms Month 24 Month 36 Month 48 Month 60 Month Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Illinois Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Jersey New York Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Texas Long-term electricity contracts (36-60 months) were favorably priced in a number of states last week, compared to short-term contracts (12-24 months). Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas all had relatively low priced long-term electricity contracts. ERC price benchmarks are a reliable measure of the direction and velocity at which prices are changing, similar to how the S&P and Dow measure change in stock market prices over time. ERC benchmarks are derived by: 1 Aggregating daily matrix prices issued by many electricity suppliers across General Service tariff rate classes for each electric utility, Averaging each utility s price benchmark 2 together for state-wide benchmarks, and 3 Averaging state-level benchmarks across five business days to create weekly average price benchmarks, based on next month s start date. A Broker s Retailer - Quick & Accurate Custom & Matrix pricing, contracting, credit checks Backed by ERM Power Limited & Sumitomo Corporation Top 3 in overall satisfaction of 40+ retailers ranked in Broker National Survey Ability to average weight up to 10 accounts across TDSPs/Load Zones/Rate Codes with our Matrix tool Matrix tool includes sweet spot calculator - determines lowest price per kwh term Contact Jason Beck for details: JBeck@SPGenergy.com

3 ENERGY MARKET DRIVERS natural gas prices Natural gas market fundamentals are about where they have been throughout the summer. Natural gas storage maintains a surplus compared to both last year and the five-year average for the same week. This continues to tether prices below the $3.00/MMBtu threshold. October 2016 NYMEX natural gas contract boundaries are $2.78/MMBtu on the support end, and $2.92/MMBtu on the resistance side. Unseasonable weather or tropical storms are unlikely to move prices one way or the other. As a sign that production will gradually increase as prices near the $3.00/MMBtu mark, the natural gas rig count increased last week by four, bringing up the number of active drilling rigs to 92. Natural gas prices, and subsequently electricity prices, will likely continue trading in the price band they have fluctuated within all summer. Absent a pipeline disruption or an unanticipated weather event, prices should remain fairly stable until they naturally begin to trend upward as we enter the winter season. HH SPOT PRICE AND NG FUTURES CONTRACTS HH Spot Price NG Futures Contract $/MMBUT % Chg. $/MMBUT %Chg. 6 months $ % $ % Last Quarter $ % $ % Last Month $ % $ % Prev. Week $ % $ % Last Week $2.87 $2.75 NATURAL GAS INJECTION & STORAGE LEVELS Net Injections Storage Bcf % Chg. Bcf %Chg. Last Week 62 3,499 Last Year % 3, % 5 Year Avg % 3, % NATURAL GAS SPOT & FUTURES PRICE (NYMEX) (Dollars per Million Btu) 12 Month Trend- $3.10 $2.90 $2.70 $2.50 $2.30 $2.10 $1.90 $1.70 Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices (NYMEX) (Dollars per Million Btu) Week ending $1.50 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Weekly NG Futures Contract Price Weekly HenryHub Spot Prices Source: ERC and EIA.gov natural gas production & storage The amount of gas in storage now stands at 3,499 billion cubic feet (Bcf). By the end of the injection season, natural gas supply should be near 4.0 trillion cubic feet. That storage level is just under the all-time record set last year. Compared to historical averages, the natural gas surplus has been cut significantly since the beginning of the injection season. The current surplus is 5.6% higher on a year-over-year basis, and 9.3% above the five-year average. At the beginning of this year s injection season, natural gas surplus for both the annual and five-year comparisons was greater than 50 percent. weather & trending topics Hot temperatures forecast for the eastern U.S. are beginning to moderate beyond next week. The middle of the U.S. is experiencing normal temperatures that are expected to continue for the next two weeks. This forecast should limit cooling demand as we head into the fall season. On the tropical storm front, the likelihood of hurricane activity will begin to diminish as we transition into the end of September. This should allow natural gas storage injections to rise, and create a storage surplus in advance of winter.

4 state profile: new york Based on a contract start of October 2016, the ERC benchmark price for retail electricity in New York increased 1.1% last week to $ per kilowatt hour. The benchmark price is now only 0.5% higher than this time last month, but 8.3% lower than one year ago. The biggest price gains in New York last week were in RG&E (8.5%), and Orange & Rockland (3.7%). Looking back month-over-month, electricity prices have increased substantially in Orange & Rockland (4.8%) and Central Hudson Gas & Electric (3.9%). The other New York utilities have maintained fairly stable pricing. Central Hudson Gas & Electric Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug Con Edison NEW YORK Last Month Prev. Week Last Week Wk/Wk Mo/Mo 8/19/16 9/9/16 9/16/16 % Chg. % Chg. Cent Hudson G&E % 3.9% Con Edison % 1.0% Nat Grid Upstate % -1.3% NYSEG % 1.8% O&R % 4.8% RG&E % -1.4% State Average % 0.5% AVERAGE WEEKLY BENCHMARK FOR RETAIL ELECTRICITY New York National Grid Upstate NY

5 state profile: new york Prices for long-term contracts in New York were quite favorable last week in most utility service territories. NYSEG Looking back 30 months, electricity prices in New York declined 23% last week from where they were in March Orange & Rockland Contract Terms 12 Month 24 Month 36 Month 48 Month 60 Month Cent Hudson G&E Con Edison Nat Grid Upstate NYSEG O&R RG&E State Average RG&E AVERAGE WEEKLY BENCHMARK FOR RETAIL ELECTRICITY- 36 MONTH TREND $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ New York Average Benchmark Price for Retail Electricity 30 Month Trend