Great, thank you. F1. To confirm, are you a registered voter at least 18 years or older in Pennsylvania? 1. Yes % 2.
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1 Final Top Line Survey Results PA Statewide Presidential Survey WHTM-TV/ABC27 News Sample Size: 772 Likely General Election Voters Conducted: July 31 st August 4th, North Progress Avenue Harrisburg, PA Phone: (717) James Lee, President INTRODUCTION: We are conducting a brief survey of attitudes and opinions concerning some important issues facing Pennsylvania today. May we have a few minutes of your time to complete the survey? Great, thank you F1. To confirm, are you a registered voter at least 18 years or older in Pennsylvania? 1. Yes % 2. No TERMINATE Q1. Thinking ahead to the general election for President and United States Senator on Tuesday November 8th, would you rate your chances of voting in this election as excellent, good, fair, or poor? 1. Excellent % 2. Good 87 11% Fair (TERMINATE) 4. Poor (TERMINATE) Q2. Generally speaking, do you think the United States is generally going in the right direction, or do you think the country has gotten on the wrong track? 1. Right direction % 2. Wrong track % 3. Not Sure 70 09% 4. Refuse 02 00% Q3. Regardless of how you are registered to vote, do you tend to think of yourself more as a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent voter? 1. Republican % 2. Democrat % 3. Independent % 4. Refuse 09 01%
2 Q4a. What is the single most important issue facing the country? That is, the one you would like to see addressed by the next President? After your first selection, you will be given a chance to name a second issue. (ROTATE ISSUES) Is it. 1. Jobs and the economy % 2. Terrorism and national security % 3. Income inequality 73 09% 4. Racial tensions between whites and blacks 34 04% 5. Illegal immigration 32 04% 6. Health care and education % 7. Making government more accountable and responsive 77 10% 8. None of the above 30 04% 9. Refuse 06 01% Q4b. What is the second most important issue facing the country? [N=744] 1. Jobs and the economy % 2. Terrorism and national security % 3. Income inequality 55 07% 4. Racial tensions between whites and blacks 78 10% 5. Illegal immigration 74 10% 6. Health care and education % 7. Making government more accountable and responsive 73 10% 8. None of the above 21 03% (Rotate Q5-Q6) Q5. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton generally favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of Hillary Clinton? 1. Favorable % 2. Unfavorable % 3. No Opinion 79 10% 4. Refuse 05 01% Q6. Is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of Donald Trump? 1. Favorable % 2. Unfavorable % 3. No Opinion 61 08% 4. Refuse 02 00% Q7. In comparison to past elections, how much interest do you have in the upcoming election for President? Would you say you have more interest than in the past, less interest than in the past, or about the same amount? 1. More interest % 2. Less interest 72 09% 3. About the same amount %
3 Q8. If the election for President were held today would you vote for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate or Donald Trump, the Republican candidate? 1. Clinton/Democrat % ASK Q9a, THEN SKIP TO Q10 2. Trump/Republican % ASK Q9b, THEN SKIP TO Q10 3. Not Sure 51 07% ASK Q9c, THEN SKIP TO Q11 4. Neither/someone else 63 08% ASK Q9c, THEN SKIP TO Q11 5. Refuse 07 01% ASK Q9c, THEN SKIP TO Q11 Q9a. What is the main reason you plan to vote for Hillary Clinton? (ROTATE) [N=366] 1. She cares about the issues I care about 58 16% 2. Her background and experience in public service 78 21% 3. She is a Democrat 16 04% 4. She is a strong and decisive leader for the nation 47 13% 5. I am voting for Hillary Clinton for all the reasons mentioned % 6. I am voting for Hillary Clinton for another reason not listed 60 16% Q9b. What is the main reason you plan to vote for Donald Trump? (ROTATE) [N=286] 1. He cares about the issues I care about 95 33% 2. His business background as a successful CEO creating jobs 30 11% 3. He is a Republican 18 06% 4. He is a strong and decisive leader for the nation 25 09% 5. I am voting for Donald Trump for all the reasons mentioned 76 27% 6. I am voting for Donald Trump for another reason not listed 40 14% 7. Refuse 02 01% Q9c. Will the televised Presidential debates influence your vote for President? [N=121] 1. No 70 58% 2. Yes 50 41% 3. Refuse 01 01% Q10. Are you strongly supporting your candidate for President, or could you change your mind before Election Day? [N=651] 1. I am strongly supporting my candidate % 2. I could change my mind 74 11% 3. Refuse 01 00%
4 Q11. If the election for President were held today would you vote for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, or Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate? (ROTATE NAMES) 1. Clinton/Democrat % 2. Trump/Republican % 3. Stein/Green Party 21 03% 4. Johnson/Libertarian 53 07% 5. Not Sure 47 06% 6. Refuse 11 01% Q12. How closely are you following the race for United States Senate between Senator Pat Toomey and Democratic challenger Katie McGinty - a lot, a little, or not at all? 1. A lot % 2. A little % 3. Not at all % 4. Refuse 17 02% Q13. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat Toomey is doing as United States Senator? 1. Approve % 2. Disapprove % 3. Not Sure % 4. Refuse 02 00% Q14. If the election for United States Senator were held today would you vote for Pat Toomey, the Republican candidate, or Katie McGinty, the Democratic candidate? 1. Toomey/Republican % 2. McGinty/Democrat % 3. Not Sure % 4. Refuse 13 02% I just have a few more questions for demographic purposes and we ll be through. Q15. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, Democrat, Independent or something else? 1. Republican % SKIP TO Q17 2. Democrat % PROCEED TO Q16 3. Independent/other 99 13% SKIP TO Q17 4. Refuse 03 00% SKIP TO Q17
5 Q16. Who did you vote for in the Democratic Presidential Primary Election held on April 26 th, between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton? [N=358] 1. Sanders % 2. Clinton % 3. Didn t vote at all 57 16% 4. Don t remember 01 00% 5. Refuse 02 00% Q17. What is your age according to the following brackets 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 54, 55-64, or 65 and over? % % % % % Q18. Do you consider yourself to be conservative or liberal when thinking about politics? 1. Conservative % 2. Liberal % 3. Progressive 54 07% 4. Neither conservative nor liberal % 5. Refuse 01 00% Q19. What is your highest level of education? 1. High school diploma % 2. Associate s degree from a trade or vocational school % 3. 4-year degree from a college or university % 4. A master s or doctorate degree % 5. Refuse 07 01% Q20. Is your main racial heritage of Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, or another background? 1. Caucasian % 2. African-American 78 10% 3. Hispanic 17 02% 4. Other 43 06% 5. Refuse 06 01%
6 Gender: (by observation) 1. Male % 2. Female % Area (from Record): 39 (05%) 1. Northwest [Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Venango, Warren, Forest] 85 (11%) 2. Southwest [Lawrence, Beaver, Washington, Greene, Fayette, Westmoreland, Indiana, Armstrong, Butler] 100 (13%) 3. The T /Central [Jefferson, Elk, McKean, Cameron, Clarion, Clearfield, Centre, Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Huntingdon, Blair, Potter, Tioga, Bradford, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Sullivan, Lycoming, Clinton, Union, Snyder, Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, Mifflin, Juniata] 93 (12%) 4. Northeast/Lehigh Valley [Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe, Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Northampton, Pike, Wayne] 124 (16%) 5. South Central [Perry, Cumberland, Adams, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, Dauphin, Berks] 162 (21%) 6. Southeast [Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks] 85 (11%) 7. Allegheny County 85 (11%) 8. Philadelphia Vote History (from record): G14, G13, G12, G x 46 06% 2. 1x % 3. 2x % 4. 3x % 5. 4x % Household Party (from record): 1. Republican % 2. Democrat % 3. Independent/other 87 11% Phone Type (from record) 1. Landline phone % 2. Cellular phone %
7 Survey Collection Method: 1. Live Agent Interview % 2. Automated/IVR % Methodology: This poll was commissioned by ABC27 News and conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. Completed interviews were conducted July 31 st August 4 th, 2016 with 772 likely general election voters in Pennsylvania, most of which have prior vote history. In order to be eligible to complete the survey, respondents had to first confirm their likelihood of voting in the November 8th General Election for President and U.S. Senator. Interviews are conducted with respondents who use a landline telephone as their primary means of contact through our IVR/automated polling software, in which survey respondents score their answers to a pre-recorded set of questions using their telephone key pads. An augmentation of live agent interviews is simultaneously conducted with harder-toreach segments of the population (e.g., younger age groups, households using cellular telephone exchanges as their primary means of contact, etc.) using the professionally-trained survey research staff from SP&R s main telephone call center. Results to both live agent interviews and automated/ivr surveys are then combined into a single data set. Surveys are carefully monitored to ensure a representative sample of Pennsylvania s electorate is achieved based on party, geography, age, gender and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted. The margin of error for a sample size of 772 is +/-3.53% at the 95% confidence level.
Jim Lee, President. All Media and Interested Parties. PA Presidential Statewide Poll Results. DATE: October 8, 2012
10 N. Progress Avenue Harrisburg, PA 17109 Phone: (717) 233-8850 Cell Phone: (717) 215-1122 Email: james@susquehannapolling.com www.susquehannapolling.com James Lee, President To: FROM: RE: All Media and
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